Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Yea last night shortly before bed i was watching the footage of the Russian Column and becoming nervous - I agree timing is everything - THAT SAID, the probable leak of planning that Lukashenko made earlier seems to suggest that the main spearheads of Russian forces are concentrated in eastern and central Ukraine - keeping the western border open will be vital

As to a possible invasion by Belarus - if their leader is anything to go on, i suspect that could only hamper Russian efforts (always remember how many times Hitler had to rescue Mussolini during WW2 - Greece, Albania, Africa - The Italians were inept, and i suspect that Belarus is playing their role in this conflict)

That said the Ukrainians need those stingers - i got footage which supposedly shows a Ukrainian taking down a chopper - but i have not seen it cover so tend to doubt its authenticity - that said - get those stingers to Kiev - ASAP

Yes, Mainstream media. How novel, eh?

You know, the ones with the centuries of heritage, the massive reach, the huge editorial resources and most importantly, the obligatory transparency to millions of shareholders and to Governments and to regulators.

You feel free, Manach, to post any journalism you consider worthy, whatever citizen correspondent blog type frivolity you cling on to and we'll happily dismantle it in favour of the stuff that's sourced, checked, verified and documented.

MSM? Even after all we've been through, after all we've seen with our own eyes, people are swallowing a Trump, Putin, Farage, Orban, Erdoğan narrative of 'the liberals are against you, the Jews are against you, the migrants are against you, the gays are against you, the MSM is against you.

Maybe the one good thing to come out of this awful war will be the end of the Russian information pollution machine which has fed on the stupidity of so many millions.

I think the problem is that how ever far reaching the MSM is, it does not reach beyond Kiev atm. There is no real official MSM coverage of what is going on in Mariupol and there is very little 'reputable' info coming from Kharkov - The problem therefore is depending on 'other media' - which does include Twitter - I included the above announcement of the arrival of NLAWs and Javelin's, i couldnt find any official confirmation. THAT SAID, it is widely reported that such weapons are being supplied - therefore i think we need to take everything with a pinch of salt, as you suggest - but we shouldnt expect everything to be confirmed by what you and i agree are 100% reliable sources -

Im not disagreeing with you Larbre - i just could see this going on for a while - and try as i may, i cannot see BBC, SKY, and CNN staying in Kiev if the Russian army launches an all out attack on the city - at that point we have a choice -

No information - or what limited information we can get with caveats attached

Why attempt to dictate what sources posters may use in an open discussion forum?

Suggesting only media “with centuries of heritage,…. transparency to millions of shareholders etc etc” is valid, then placing a newspaper founded in 1900, with shareholders, government regulation etc, on the verboten list simply because of your own bias and prejudice is hypocritical

The established media from BBC to newspapers of record have been regurgitating absolute horseshit as fact in this conflict.

Even when this misinformation has been revealed the arbiters of truth on this and other forums justify the misinformation as good for the morale of the “right” side.

The established media is more than capable of massive and damaging errors from RTE reporting on an entirely innocent missionary priest https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_to_Prey

To The New York Times, CNN and others wrongfully beating the race hate drum

You also ignore the fact that centuries of media heritage is no guarantee of impartiality.

Most of the oldest newspapers were established as party mouthpieces or were the lobbying arm of the rich ruling class.

You mention that transparency comes from shareholders while in fact a single shareholder or small group of shareholders are often the dominant influence on media and not upsetting shareholders is very often at odds with reporting the unvarnished facts.

For example our own paper of record, The Irish Times will happily carry several articles a day championing the importance of diversity while never reporting on the complete absence of minorities on their board and the dearth of anything but white, middle class journalists on their payroll

Here is a link to just some of the “facts” carried by venerable, heritage, “approved” media sources that have turned out to be rubbish.

https://fullfact.org/europe/bbc-footage-russian-flyover-ukraine/

The problem is, with such a dearth of information out there we have to look at everything, even sources that could not be called fully reputable.

The information from any side is going to be sketchy, incomplete, misleading or even downright untrue. And on a personal note, I would trust Russian state media over the Express or the Mail, but that's just my own bias. Because even if it is complete propaganda, what they're saying, not saying or saying between the lines can give vital clues to their true intention and motives.

So I would say, look at everything. Personally I would draw the line at extremeist QAnon bullsh*t pages because I dismiss their content and their followers as just window licking, rubber wall bouncing crazies that are of no relevance to real life.

Neo Nazis are like cockroaches. Hard to eradicate, hide in dark crevices, like to come out at night and don't like a light being shone on them.

And they are absolutely everywhere. They are an infestation of vermin. And they should be treated a such.

But that doesn't invalidate an entire country.

A few thoughts that occurred to me overnight:

Lessons from History:

1. Re the nuclear option - Putin is increasingly looking unhinged and judging by his puffy sallow appearance may also be an actual sick man. Such desperation or despondancy may mean he feels he has nothing to lose and no more than Hitler wanting to bring all of Germany down with him when he realised all was lost, Putin may actually have no qualms of bringing the whole world down with him if he feels backed into a corner.
2. It is something of a miracle that we have possessed nuclear weapons as a deterrent for 77 years and no one has yet used them in aggression.
3. Re the incrediby brave resistence of Kyiv to attack so far I'm very worried about parrallels with the Warsaw Ghetto uprising and the subsequent Warsaw uprising, once the full force of Russian might is brought to bear on the city.
4. The hit on the communication tower in Kyiv is adjacent to the park that was formerly Babi Yar ravine. Over 2 days in Sept 1941 approximately 33,771 Jews were massacared at this site. In the two years following possibly up to another 70-120,000 additional Jews, Soviet POW's, Communists Ukranian Nationalists and Roma's were also murdered and buried there. In 1961 an earthen dam holding back loam from an adjacent brick factory burst due to negligence and flooded the adjacent Kurnenivka neighbourhood with debris and the bones of some of the victims of Babi Yar killing possibly up to 2000 people. The Soviet authorities initially covered up the disaster and when eventually admitting it put the official death toll at 145. After this the Soviet authorities had the ravine filled in and turned into a city park.

For those that hold out hope of the Russian people turning against Putin anytime soon, just look at the fanatical support that the similarly despotic Trump still boasts amongst a majority of American Republicans in a country with a free press (And this in spite of his continuing and proudly proclaimed admiration for Putin.) Also don't forget that Trump's initial impeachment move was brought about by his phone call to Zelenski where Trump tried to blackmail him for US military support in return for spilling the dirt on Hunter Biden, i.e prepared to pit a nation's security against his own personal motives.

The best hope for an overthrow of Putin probably lies with a demoralised and disillusioned military, but Putin's disregard for his military (and his people) goes right back to the beginning of his reign and his attitude and reaction to the Kursk submarine disaster in 2000.

If the adage that the first casualty of war is the truth is followed through, then Fiona Hill's brilliant and insightful interview referenced earlier in this thread is a good illustration of how Putin's agents have long been waging information warfare on the world in preparation for this. Their infiltration of social media and their role in the emergence of "fake news" is only the tip of this iceberg and if we think we are immune to this in little insignificant insular Ireland we only need consider the now proven linkages between the Russian secret services and the hackers who compromised the HSE's IT systems last year.

Finally, re the farcical calls from some in Ireland that we should send our limited stock of anti tank missiles to Ukraine in solidarity. Firstly as last weeks Defence report illustrated, Ireland's military combat capabilities are and have been pathetic for years and the diversion of our paltry and likely obsolete hardware to Ukraine would be an insignificant drop in the ocean in terms of what is required. We're (including our Defence forces) far better at logistical and humananatarian support and we should focus on these specialities despite the calls from the fanatical keyboard warriors and the frothing at the mouth by the likes of Joe Duffy.

This point seems to pop up a lot, but there is not a lot of evidence of actual "war crimes". It seems people throw it out as an emotive pejorative term rather than understanding that there are definitive lists of actions that are, and are not "war crimes". With the exception of recent shelling in cities yesterday, the Russian advance was remarkably restrained in their actions with civilians. It has thus far been far from a Grozny-like event.

Also not to get into a whataboutery thing here, but worth remembering that plain clothes combatants are a "war-crime" too, though likely not one to be prosecuted after all is said and done. Other things like setting up military bases/artillery in heavily residential areas could be broadly interpreted as using civilians for cover/shielding also. So with this in mind its difficult to definitively state X committed war crimes against Y until the fog of war has lifted and things calm down, the propaganda (from both sides) in circulation only adds to the fog.

I can see the relation and yes I would absolutely concede that at this point even Putin (whatever his frame of mind or mental stability) is unlikely to utilise the nuclear option prior to utilising his full arsenal of conventional military options. However, I'm worried about a scenario down the road where he has exhaused all other military options and the full force of economic sanctions have begun to bite and he finds himself in a desperate bid to retain power or exercise a final throw of the dice. With some of the crazy rhetoric that is coming out of Russia at the minute ala "without Russia there is nothing" at that stage I wouldn't put it beyond him to utilise the nuclear option.

Also in a time of heightened tensions and such provacative rhetoric there is unfortunately a heightened risk of a "mistake"

Hopefully you are right but it also depends on what Putin comes to regard as "Russian territory" and if he succeeds in Ukraine and then moves on to the Baltic states or Moldovia or Poland or whatever. A lot of if's I know but I think we are dealing with an increasingly imperialistic and paranoid Putin

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083733700/russias-40-mile-convoy-has-stalled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

Reports coming out last night from US intelligence that this infamous giant convoy has run out of fuel and food before it's even begun an assault on Kyiv.

Pinch of salt obviously, but if it's even slightly true it does align with a general theme here of a Russian force filled with inexperienced, unprepared and undisciplined troops. It's possible the gathering isn't even a tactical move - that they all joined together to consolidate the resources they had left.

We made this same mistake before - when Trump and Johnson made a bizarre, stupid, incompetent or illogical decision, everyone immediately started searching for the lede. Making an assumption that it was some kind of high-thinking strategy that was flying over our heads. It took years to realise they were just chaotic, incompetent people, stumbling from decision to decision with no joined up dots at all.

Is it possible we're making the same mistake with Putin here? We've spent all week suspicious of every report, assuming that there's some elite strategy game happening, and Russia is going to sweep in with some move that will take everyone by surprise.

It's now day 7 and Russia is floundering in what on paper was an easy win, making far slower progress than anyone expected, and their domestic economy is in ruins.

It's more and more likely every day that the world has vastly overestimated Putin's competence.

I read somewhere Russia wants Viktor Yanukovych reinstalled as leader of Ukraine ,

Russia really have no clue here , it's pretty obvious Ukraine won't be bowing to putin or his puppets