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Russian build up along Ukraine

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Looking at some pics of the conscripts I wouldn’t be surprised, they are barely out of their teens. One of the reasons why it happened now was the current “class” of conscripts were ending their year long stint, but Russian training is so sh!t that they are totally illtrained. I mean there’s a clip of a BUK SAM system (aka the type they used to shoot down the airliner) being taken out by a drone strike as they didn’t even have the radar turned on. Or MBTs and heavy equipment driving into ploughed fields and getting stuck.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭roadmaster




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Irish weapons are not going to be sent, clearly.

    However, the incongruity of that position with the reality of 'there but for the Grace of God goes any smaller independent State', is all excellent fodder for the debate on Ireland's defence policy that must now happen.

    I should be very interested in any Sunday paper opinion poll over the next few weeks on the topic. I suspect the preaching of RBB and Mick Wallace and the like is totally and utterly out of step with the silent majority of this Country, who would gladly put our entire Army fleet on some Ferries and send the lot to Odessa.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Yeah, they aren't being sent. But as you say it might be interesting to see how the next couple of weeks might go, and given the commitment of Coveney to bring something forward in regards to the Commissions Report it will be interesting to see how this will play out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    We are asked to take in 20,000 refugees.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    How many we ultimately take in will depend on different factors, but we should.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer




  • Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Leonidas BL


    One of the PC-12's is over in Poland near the Ukrainian border. Delivering weapons ;)




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Medical supplies more likely...and probably badly needed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I doubt the government even knows at this stage, likely it will be more like a volunteer solution. Just look at what Moldova and Poland are doing.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Taking off from Rzeszow now, wonder was it a collection of some of the infants and family?



  • Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Leonidas BL


    Shes back in the air. Not sure where shes heading.




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Coming into the same airport behind her is the Luxembourg A400… But yeah small nations can’t fund equipment..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    That's the spirit...Anything constructive to add to the thread?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,077 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves



    I think we should sell any surplus military equipment to maybe Poland for maybe a euro. What they do with them afterwards is none of our business.

    P.S. we shod be sure there is Ukraine language instructions in the boxes.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Now now, talk like that makes Eamon wake up unhappy...

    So keep going.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Not directly related, but in the same neighbourhood, a Romanian AF Mig-21 Lancer has gone down near the Black Sea coast of that Country and very sadly a search helicopter on the trail of the plane, a Puma, has also crashed with the loss of all 7 aboard.

    No word on the pilot of the Mig.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭scotchy


    From the FR24 thread. Its carrying back an Irish couples surrogate baby.


    .

    💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,742 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    FWIW, sodium iodide is a stable, simple salt. It only has to be kept dry, it doesn't decompose or degrade or become less effective. But everything that is "food" or "medicine" has to have an expiry date. I'm surprised bricks don't have expiry dates on them these days...

    Scrap the cap!



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    Most of Ukraine East of Odessa is in Ru hands or control. The next Ru move is to take ODESSA Ukraine's main import/export harbour. There are Russian troop carriers offshore ready for beach landings to augment any attack from Crimea direction. It beats me that the leader of the free world has remained mostly silent and not issued some redline warnings to Putin, including denying Passage through the Bosporus and preempting landings from the sea.

    The Tanaiste has implied that our Defence Forces are to be made more fit for purpose by upgrading. I believe we may need expert guidance to achieve the Training, Skills, and Weapon levels required for Defence and participation on joint exercises and EU required tasks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,742 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Most of Ukraine East of Odessa is in Ru hands or control.

    I stopped reading there.

    No it isn't. Map as of 2100Z last night:


    Scrap the cap!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    The US along with the rest of NATO have been clear, they are not going to get into a direct confrontation with Russia. Moreover it's not anything to do with the US in regards to the Bosporus, Turkey has legal responsibility for that and has already moved to block non Black Sea ships from entering the Black Sea, however they can do nothing about ships already there or permanently based in the Black Sea. And sending any NATO surface force into the Black Sea is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Ukraine will get arms and support from the West, the West is not getting involved directly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I'm not sure what our DF upgrade has to do with your initial point Ancient mariner.

    It was already on the cards anyway due to a change in the prevailing winds of geopolitics, and out of the consequent CoD report, but obviously the Russian military assault on a sovereign State has thrown a spotlight on the need to be able to at least mind our own patch of grass and water adequately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Technically they were prevented as they have to declare it a war first I think before they close it, the Turks are rather careful how they act with that treaty. And I think ships can leave it’s just not allowing ships in.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    Directly East of Odessa is Crimea , Mariupol, and the areas seized in 2014. All in RU control. To control access to Odessa harbour is the next obvious Ru objective, especially with troop ships offshore. I didn't say most of Ukraine, just the portion east of Odessa. My other point is that while Turkey has put some controls on the Bosporos it doesn't seem to be at the advice of the US, who seem very tardy and dragging behind EU action such as closing airspaces a week after everyone else. We need leadership from those capable of the biggest response. The US State seem silent and leaving the initiative to Political and Defence organisations in Europe. Are we on our own?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Of course Odessa is a critical aim for their advance, it's the largest port Ukraine has, and near it is the only dock capable of fixing their rustbucket of a carrier after they sank their floating dock under him a few years ago, not too mention the likely aim of a total land connection to the rebel area so that he can threaten Moldova long term. And no Turkey doesn't operate on "the advice of the US" in terms of the Straits, the US isn't involved in the Treaty and Turkey is an independent nation (which has a mixed relationship with both the US and Russia). As to who is what in this mess, there's plenty of people to point to. The US and UK were far ahead of Europe in arming and training the Ukrainian military for example, while most of Europe didn't want to risk the energy issues, in the last week the EU has become much more aggressive, but in doing so is basically making things up as it goes.

    And we are on our own, we always have been due to a variety of reasons most of which I don't agree with.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,100 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    In Slovakia it is now compulsory that they take the people into their home



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Well they and the Czechs have a good memory of what Russia did to them during 1968 so that could be driving a willingness to provide such shelter, but I'm not sure what your point is? Every EU nation that takes in Ukrainian refugees will do their own thing in their own way?



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    When Ukraine's sea coast in the Black Sea is under RU control. it will mean loss of ability to use Port facilities for major cargoes in and out of Ukraine. It will also cause demise of their navy, and loss of control of their seas. Whatever happens in a future Peace Time must include a full restoration of Ukraine's original territory.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    That’s unlikely to happen, Russia won’t give up Crimea no matter what, and is likely to push very hard to maintain a full land connection to it. As for the Ukrainian Navy, the only significant surface vessel they had has already been scuttled to prevent her capture.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    To be fair, I think looking at the performance of their Army and Air Force a choice might have been made as to how and where their limited budget should be spent and the Navy lost out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    Attempts were made latterly by the Brits to bolster their Navy. However the main need because of the RU/Ukraine border is a good ground and Air defence. With Mariupol in blockade and Odessa likely to fall the need for or survival of a navy are both Negative. The only workable response would be to take back all of the Ukrainian coast including Crimea. Perhaps with an equipped Force they could do it



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,022 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Those UK ships wouldn't really been able to shift the odds against the Russians tbf. And I can't see how Ukraine takes back Crimea, granted if this keeps up I can see the Russian Army being mauled for a decade at least and they clearly have made no attempt to clean up the Soviet corruption in the system. But Crimea is not something they are going to give up, and I'm not sure if Ukraine will have the strength to take it.

    Whatever settlement ends this Crimea most likely is ending up staying in Russian hands.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I'm not so sure. I think we'll see the collapse of the Russian state in its current form, out of this catastrophic endeavour.

    Might take a while and will probably come from internal unrest, caused by the ending of normal civilian life for ordinary Russians as they know it; no money, no jobs, no information, no shops, meagre food, no life of any ambition. You cannot arrest and imprison 145 million people and they will take the heads of Putin and his inner circle, eventually.

    After that, I'm sure the UN administered post-war conferences of restoration of Ukraine and its people will see its territorial integrity restored to those borders which the World already accept, those that existed in actuality in 2013.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭Psychlops


    I must say when they invaded it really had me worried, but im suprised at how useless & inept the Russians are! Dads army.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You're nearly right. Kids army.

    I bet Putin is quite shocked that his military doesn't believe in him or want to fight his phoney war for him at all. When the truth of all this filters back to ordinary Russians, as despite all the media blackouts, it will eventually from servicemen and through families living abroad, he's going to be hung up on a wall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    They will find out in Russia. An Irish Ukrainian Doctor being rescued by two Scottish truck Drivers who got stopped by young Russians on their way in to the rescue point had their mobile phones taken and told to turn back and sent on their way with shots at their vehicle. The phones will be able to be used to ring Mom and dad. The truck according to RTE news got back in to a town (phonetic) called Summey and picked up the young doctor and her friend to go to LVIV about 17 hour drive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,504 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Question 1

    I've seen quite a few twitter threads detailing the shambles in logistics by the Russian army. Factoring that in along with the considerable losses in combat and the fact that they have deployed an estimated 95% of the initial forces they had amassed on the Ukrainian borders is there a possibility of the Russians simply running out of functioning vehicles?

    I know that sounds absurd given their huge numbers in total but if you consider:

    • The direct losses in combat
    • The malfunctions, stuck in mud, breakdowns etc
    • The need to keep forces all around Russia in order to maintain civil order in a de-facto police state (if required)


    What is their contingency here?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,504 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Question 2

    Let's say the Russians stop their advancements and instead just park up their artillery inside the Russian/Crimean/Belarus/DNR/LNR borders, surround them with anti-aircraft capabilities and flatten Ukrainian cities from afar - and then send in troops to take over when the cities are rubble. What are the downsides of that (apart from the terrible optics of massacring civilians)?

    Could the Ukrainians realistically counter that strategy in any way?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    We are probably looking at a hard edge Close Air Support coupled with anti-personnel munitions, coupled with counter attack and some Arty to get into their HQ areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Mobile artillery won't flatten cities. At least it won't without it taking years and years.

    When various cities in Germany were flattened (really flattened) in WWII, it took months of high level carpet bombing, often using incendiary bombs by allied air forces, ahead of advancing ground armies. A combination of old style building materials and close proximity of structures resulted in great fire storms that hollowed out cities which then fell into rubble.

    For the Russians to achieve something similar, they would have to deploy conventional cruise and ballistic missiles, like the Iskander system, on a wide scale, as well as its indiscriminate thermobaric rocket launchers.

    They would likely have to also launch an indiscriminate air campaign against Ukrainian cities, using ordinary gravity bombs from their Backfire, Bear and Blackjack bombers.

    All of this, would represent a major escalation in military activity and a major departure from Russia's original plan and no doubt cause major tension among the upper echelons of the military and political apparatus in Moscow.

    It could, of course, be countered by the increased supply of Western defensive weapons systems to Ukraine, such as Patriot and THAAD and the already very successful short-range Stinger.

    Even if the Russian armour does eventually get into position to attempt to lay siege to big cities, such as Kyiv, it seems that again, the Western supplied anti armour missiles, especially Javelin, are highly effective against them and could be employed from either side of the siege line.

    Overall it seems that all this heralded Russian equipment is mostly crap, Russian soldiers are mostly unmotivated and unsuitably trained and Russian logistics and campaign planning took place in the local Kindergarten.

    As time goes on, I'd be more confident of the domestic Ukrainian population, including some 10 million men highly motivated of fighting age, backed by excellent real time intelligence from the West, as well as state of the art weapons, being able to upset and derail each Russian plan as it develops and I hope they get every plane, missile and rifle that they can handle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,504 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Thanks for the comprehensive (and uplifting) response.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    More in hope than expectation friend. Have to be optimistic for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭Psychlops


    Videos on SM showing civilian vehicles headed to Ukraine on trains plastered with the word "Z". A US Army person on Twitter that used to maintain US Army Trucks etc reckons some of those Pantsirs? I think thats how its spelled & other heavy gear has been lying idle for months or possibly a year & thats why they are not functioning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,077 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    There is a saying by mechanics in the agriculture industry that the best thing adiesel engine like is work. its very hard to do preventive maintenace on equipment. You eally need it to be working day in day out. the day you find a problem with a machine is the day you go to use it. working

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    The Polish Mig29s that ukraine are getting they all have major western technology upgrades. Will that give the ukraine pilots much of an advantage when they go head to head against the russians?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    We'll probably never know that one, at least until somebody writes the book on the War after the fact.

    You would imagine though, that the further the MiGs are from the systems configuration the Ukrainian pilots are familiar with, the longer the lead time for effective deployment will be.

    It's also pretty risky, if one of those with the western upgrades, gets downed in Russian held territory and analysed by them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I wonder even in the future will it turn out they where flown by polish pilots in ukraine uniforms



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,428 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I'd be very, very surprised if that was the case

    Again, if one were captured, it would be used as just the sort of excuse Russia is seeking to widen the War.

    Besides, it seems that there is little shortage of experienced pilots who are serving or have recently served with the UAF, whose staff exceeds 40,000. We're only talking about 23 Polish MiGs, or less. The Ukrainian lads will probably be fighting each other off for a chance to fly one of them into combat.



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