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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,240 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Sounds about right, they wanted brexit, obviously with brexit you need a border but they don't one on the irish sea or on land...



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Well, it's as fully thought-through as every other aspect of Brexit.

    They're basically posturing. Their claim is that, having "taken back control" of their borders, they're going to wholly abandon control of a section of their border and let anyone and anything enter UK and circulate freely within it, provided only that they enter via the land border with IRL. Drugs, contraband, substandard goods, asylum seekers - all are welcome. It's a mad policy and a violation of a number of the UK's treaty obligations which will seriously piss off its non-EU trading partners, but neither idiocy nor illegality have ever deterred the madder wing of the Brexit movement, so those who advocate this position probably genuinely think that it's a feasible one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,586 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    The EU have the power to put the pressure on the British government on this issue which is exactly what is happening. The loyalist alternative to the protocol is nothing. To hell with the EU and it’s single market. That’s not going to work. They are not going to force 4 million Irish people out of the single market against their will either. They are going to have to accept the reality of their situation they are effectively alone and outnumbered on a small island abandoned by the mainland. The remnants of a failed invasion from nearly 400 years ago. They haven’t done too bad to survive in a such a privileged position as long they have and they will survive just as well for another 400 years in an inevitable new arrangement.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Yep, pretty much.

    The NI Protocol is part of a binding international treaty. It's part of the treaty because the UK wanted it; they negotiated but refused to ratify to sign an earlier version of the treaty, and they proposed the NI Protocol as something that would make the treaty acceptable to them.

    The NI Protocol can be amended or replaced, but only by agreement between the EU and the UK. Anyone who is calling for the NI Protocol to be replaced needs to put forward an alternative which has some realistic prospect of being agreed to by the EU, which means it must avoid a hard border between NI and IRL, and must ensure the integrity of the Single Market. If they are calling for a replacement but not proposing one, they are just bloviating windbags full of bin juice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,251 ✭✭✭paul71


    If they are calling for a replacement but not proposing one, they are just bloviating windbags full of bin juice.


    Your usual style is slightly more polite Peregrinus!!!

    Nice to see you let loose once in a while. 😁



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  • Registered Users Posts: 140 ✭✭moritz1234


    Totally agree.

    The Withdrawal Agreement (which includes the NI protocol) is enshrined in International Law. The UK Govt would have to break International Law (at at time when they are accusing Putin of breaking International Law). By all means tweak on the implementation through talks, at the agreement of both the EU and the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,705 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Yep, thought it was the height of hypocrisy to hear Boris Johnson accuse others of breaking international law while he was doing the same - although he probably enjoyed it and thought it was all a jolly jape.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭Stephen_Maturin


    I’ve seen talk on twitter that should Putin cut off gas to Europe, Norway is obliged to supply EU countries before the UK. However all gas interconnection to Ireland runs solely via the UK, hence if they’re cut off, we are cut off.

    I doubt things will come to this but what would we do in such a situation? Could we just use Corrib for a while?

    https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1496133061343420428?s=20&t=03pwAkEX5NhCqNDvlS8w_Q



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,654 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    UK gets 3% of it's gas from Russia. And the connections are in England. Our gas comes from Scotland and Norway and the Corrib. We can ramp up production a bit.

    Most other EU countries have gas storage. The UK closed theirs down to save £75m a year. And then paid £9Bn to take the sting out of recent price rises.


    Map and flows - https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/map click on node , then pick a tab and access data

    https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/points/data?points=uk-tso-0001itp-00090exit%2Cie-tso-0002itp-00495entry - Moffat to Ireland.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,022 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    If things really hot up we will have to ration gas across Europe. In Ukraine they are preparing to fight the Russians in the streets so gas rationing is mild in comparison. I'm thinking of my former colleagues in our Kiev office right now and hoping they don't have to take up arms to defend their country :-(



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,612 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Thinking much the same as my own company put measures in place to help people from our Ukraine office relocate if they so desire this week, and noting that uptake is very low. Anyone who has accepted thusfar is not Ukrainian, with the Ukrainian born members of staff seeming to have a strong sense of determination that they won't be moved. Granted that office is in Kyiv, perhaps uptake would be higher if it was closer to the Russian border, but I can't help but admire their stoicism. Rationing my home gas usage or paying a higher rate seems positively trivial in comparison.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    i guess the more relevant question to this thread is, has brexit taken away too much focus of the Eu on matters like Russia. or are countries such as germany just too naive or just thinking about what in for them such as supporting ukraine with 5000 helmets and the north stream pipeline with the reluctance to give that up until just very recently...



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,669 ✭✭✭storker


    That's very much how the ideologically-committed mind works. You see it in action a lot with the likes of conspiracy theorists and young earth creationists. It's the polar opposite of evidence-based research. It's opinion based and and uses the conclusion as the starting point rather than the end point, and searches specifically for supporting evidence only, discarding or ignoring anything contrary. The conclusion in the case being: "Brexit was a great idea." It's the kind of mentality that if writing an exam question about it would phrase as "Discuss why Brexit has been so wonderful" rather than "Discuss the pros and cons of Brexit and whether or not it was a good idea".



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,243 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    at times like these i'm glad corbyn was hammered in the election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,069 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I'de much prefer the anti war politician who was the one calling for very strict clamp downs on money laundering while the Tories were selling off London to the Russians.

    Don't see what it has to do with Brexit though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,698 ✭✭✭Enzokk



    I think the fact that you had 11 of Corbyn's most vocal supporters come out with the same tripe that NATO expansion was a cause of the invasion, I shudder to think what Corbyn as leader would have said. I bet he would have gone harder on sanctions, but he would have offered the NATO excuse. That is the reason why he had no chance, his views on the world does seems to agree a lot with the likes of Farage, even if they pretend to be on different spectrums of the political divide. This was apparent with Brexit as well, while both Corbyn and Farage supported Brexit, they came at it from different sides. Doesn't matter as the result is the same.


    Back to Brexit, this thread is interesting on the NIP and what people in NI think about it,



    Some interesting information in the thread. I don't think it was fair on the questions on what the NIP does, but it seems clear that while there is a still a divide on the NIP, this does seem to be along political lines. Loyalists seems to have a negative view of the Protocol and their support seems to correspond with that percentage, about 40% of the electorate. But it is interesting that many people see the NIP as more of a political stability threat than economic threat to NI. So they know they are better off with the NIP, but politically it is not great and thus could leave open the possibility of economic harm due to this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,067 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    i posted the below before any of the current situation regarding the Ukraine invasion had occurred in the NI protocol thread…and it’s the last post there…so would be interested in what you think:


    It really needs to be discussed the source of the DUPs funding of advertising of a Pro Brexit mandate in English newspapers where no DUP members were standing. Especially when you realise the apparent link with Russia funding and the current situation in the Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44624299

    What is equally worrisome is the reports regarding the Russian influence in the whole Brexit vote and the suppression of the security report https://youtu.be/jZYR7n2gpOU



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No. Brexit is a UK obsession. The EU is largely over it; a couple of people have been identified whose job it is to do the Brexit mopping-up precisely so that nobody else has to think too much about it.

    Whatever failings there may be in the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine, Brexit is not the cause of them. If anything, UK involvement in formulating the EU response would be more likely to have led to a weaker response than a stronger.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭KildareP


    100%. The EU might be slow but that's because each member state has to have their say and gets their influence - ironically, not being able to have an equal say being one of the reasons we were told Brexit must happen to "Take back control of their sovereignty".

    I notice a narrative in some parts of the UK media about how, with the UK gone, the EU is in disarray trying to arrive at a unanimous, harmonious outcome on how to handle Ukraine. A bit ironic, really, coming from the former member state who had the highest number of opt-outs of any other member state.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,698 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    It is interesting that one of the reasons given for the UK leaving the EU is that would be able to nimbly make decisions on their own.



    You had the spectacle where politicians were arguing over twitter that the UK was doing all they can for refugees from Ukraine, yet the reality on the ground was different. People were being denied entry to the UK due to not fulfilling visa criteria and the EU already agreed to allow refugees without the need to apply for one. I suspect the response would have been delayed in the EU had the UK been a member, as they would have held up the EU response to this and it would have been up to each country to decide. This would then be used by the likes of Farage as a reason why they should leave.



    You even had the carnage of politicians offering those fleeing from Ukraine the option to enter the UK, by applying for the temporary worker visa to go and work on their farms if they didn't have family in the UK. So we welcome you here with open arms, but go and work in the fields while your country burns and other family members are fighting. What a lovely country they have become.


    Edit - just to add the family provision is very narrow as well as fair as I could find. British family member must be a Spouse, partner if in relationship for at least 2 years, parent if you are under 18, your child if you are over 18 or an adult relative you are caring for.


    No grandparents, no brothers or sisters. Stay in a foreign country with no family then. But Johnson will lie again and tell you they are leading with their response.


    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1498051799416066048?s=20&t=OmSKGI5LMeaAgTN71yLtBw



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    i guess you would certainly be right if we would say putin only started to think about this only since 2020... but that is certainly not the case so i guess its not as clear cut as you present it .



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    UK hasn't participated in EU policy formation since 2016.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    but this is not the point the eu was certainly more focused on itself during brexit , and putin was rather happy about that and had tried to manipulate the brexit referendum. in 2014 the eu said, eu entry negotiations with ukraine where strategically very important and then not too much was heard about it since 2017 , until this week ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,705 ✭✭✭serfboard


    In fairness to the UK, they are being entirely consistent with their current policy. Brexit was supposedly built on a hatred of Eastern Europeans, so why should they make it easier for some Eastern Europeans to come to the UK simply becuase their country is being invaded?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Well, yes, but I wouldn't assume that that was only or mainly because the EU was distracted by Brexit. Ukraine had its own distractions in recent years, remember. Plus, the path to accession is normally a slow one. Plus, regardless of Brexit, Ukraine's unresolved issues with Russia would normally be an impediment to accession.

    Not saying that Brexit had no effect on Ukaine-EU relationships. But I think it would have been a pretty minor part of the whole picture.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭druss


    I suspect that a UK-in-the-EU would have agreed at Council to allow visa free entry to Ukrainian refugees. Conservative MPs would have continued the noble tradition of blaming the EU for forcing this decision.

    UK-out-of-the-EU has no such fig leaves available and has to posture a bit more for "there's no room" vote.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,698 ✭✭✭Enzokk



    Didn't Cameron upset Eurozone countries because he wanted concessions when they were trying to save the euro? I doubt the UK would have been more generous had they still been in the EU with refugees with a Tory Government in charge.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    of course Ukrainian had a lot of issues,especially with judiciary system but at this moment if the application was to become successful tomorrow it would already be the longest negotiations ever the eu had with a new country that finally joined , and i think we agree we are still many years away from that happening.

    the ukraine has no unresolved issues with russia . russia has unresolved issues with ukraine, i think that is a big difference. and of course its a difficult situation .but i would say the way you put it, sounds a bit like you blame the wife that gets beaten up at home ,for getting beaten up at home rather than blaming the abusive husband . so i guess because of the russia issues negotiations should not have slowed down the process, it anything it should have speed up the process as the eu would seem to agree with right now .

    but i think it was kind of clear in 2014 we either should have said, yes we did tell russia in the early 90 s that the ukraine would stay neutral and leave it there , or speed the process up to enter it into the west

    i agree at the end of the day its easy so say what should maybe have been done , and i agree most likely even without brexit we would be at the same situation. as it kind of needed a very serious incident for this change of mind.

    and while putin was keen on brexit . in this case maybe brexit was even a good thing as it might have made decisions faster on economic sanctions ....



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,069 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The concessions were nothing got to do with timing. They were just stupid concessions doomed to fail



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