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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I suppose what I meant is the average person won't really question something if it fits whatever bias they have.

    But Ukraine shelling themselves is a stretch. That said, if the US in 2004 said Saddam is shelling his own cities for surrendering so easily... I dunno, I reckon some people would have bought it. People said he was "insane" too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    That is an accurate analogy - the claims we have just listened to are similarly nonsensical - Its always a very odd experience speaking to someone who has a totally different version of reality -

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,059 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    "A large chunk of the population will want to believe the the comforting fantasy that it is the West who are the real bad guys and that the Russians are the real victims here. Russian media will enable those people to continue to believe their delusions."

    Yes but the reality will seep back sooner or later, through family that have connections in both states and through the ordinary army lower ranks. There's only so long that Putin's administration can keep a lid on it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    UN VOTE looks to have been taken but sky jumped away from it - briefly went to loud clapping and some numbers did pop up - i didnt catch them

    Would anyone care to speculate on Abstentions and Votes Against?

    North Korea - NAY - already made some soundings on the topic

    Serbia - Nay or Abstention - il go with Nay - some diplomatic soundings and neutral language (regret conflict in the region etc)

    China Abstention i would say


    I am very curious to see where this ends up

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,109 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It's very difficult to get people to change their minds once they have made it. It's one of those cognitive biases that us humans are riddled with. More often than not people will choose to double down, even if it no longer makes any sense, on the "side" that they have picked. Sure some open minded individuals will be open to changing their minds once evidence to the contrary has been presented to them. A depressingly large amount will not though and will simply ignore this evidence while believing what they want to be true. Social media only amplifies this affect with people surviving inside their own echo chambers.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 54,195 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Shame on the International Paralympic Committee

    Shame on then and the IOC for allowing Russians and Belarus to take part

    Drugs state sponsorship, sure you can still take part, invading a country, go ahead and take part

    fucking disgusting



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech



    In an emergency session of the UN’s general assembly, 141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained and five voted against.

    So the 35 Abstentions and 5 Against

    Cant find a roll call yet

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,385 ✭✭✭schmoo2k


    141 in favour

    5 against

    35 abstentions

    China abstained while Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Russia and Syria voted against



  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Mongolia, south Africa, Iran, Iraq, India and China all abstained.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Only surprise there is Eritrea voting against it. I guess I'm off down the wiki rabbit hole to find out what that's about.

    For all the good it'll do, at least it tells Russia unambiguously that they have practically no support on this one.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,008 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Democracies like India and South Africa abstaining is a disgrace on them both.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,535 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    Their main import is wheat, and it's mostly all from Russia.

    Russia feeds a large part of Africa and Asia, along with Ukraine so it's as Stalin would put it the currency of currencies'



  • Registered Users Posts: 118 ✭✭Annascaul


    The big problem is, that Putin is totally unpredictable. Back in the cold war there was a Politburo, they had discussions among themselves, but with Putin it seems more like nobody in his close circle dares to contradict him.

    We don't even know Putin's aims are, even doubt that even if he conquers the whole country of Ukraine, how would he be able to rule it? Putin will certainly not have a good network of like-minded communists as they had back in the cold war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,896 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Yes, some people here may not realise that is quite a significant vote. They are extremely dependent on Russian gas for their energy and they get it well below market rates. They've got elections coming up soon and their population would be considerably more sympathetic to Russia in general than all other European countries bar Belarus, (which no longer meets the criteria to be a country). So Vucic is taking a bit of a domestic risk here by not abstaining. Most Serbian people that I've spoken to last week however, were very supportive of Ukraine and critical of Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,109 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    North Korea and Eritrea are probably the #1 and #2 most repressive regimes on the planet. Belarus is basically a Kremlin controlled non-country now and Bashar Al Assad owes Putin a few favours for crushing the rebels in his own country a few years ago.

    On that note, the Kazakh leader went running to Putin when there was a popular uprising in his country earlier this year and Putin sent him some special forces to help regain control. Since then they have refused to send any troops to Ukraine and now abstained rather than voted against this motion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    If we take the abstentions on a case by case basis -

    China's, and Cuba's abstentions are a tacit criticism of this War - Politically Russia is more isolated now than it was during the height of the cold war - and remember they had a lot of Satellite states to back them during that time -

    there are disappointments in the vote - South Africa most of all - and India - but over all this is an excellent vote

    This is a fantastic show of solidarity with Kiev -

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,334 ✭✭✭topmanamillion


    The eastern European countries will be pushing hard for this. One of the few positives the Ukrainians have going for them is American support. If Trump were still in office he would not support them and the Balkan countries would be a lot itchier now as he could well have found a way to renege on his obligations under Article 5. This will be a wake up call for Eastern European countries and they wont want to depend on a favorable British/American head of state coming to the rescue in future. They`ll want an iron clad mechanism to get troops and air defence into their countries should Russia cross the line.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Is it just me or do India abstain a LOT in UN votes?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Why are people acting like it's impossible for EU countries to send an army somewhere without the Yanks and NATO or a joined army.

    If an EU country is attacked you can bet France, Germany and the rest will jump.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    They genuinely cannot - Its nothing specifically to do with the EU - regardless of their weapons shipments to the Ukraine (which is new, and EXTREMELY unprecedented)

    NATO is the defense pact of the European Mainland - it includes Article 5

    Which states that an attack/war on one is an attack on all - any involvement what so ever - and you would have Nato (with 3 Nuclear Armed Countries) squaring off against Russia

    They just cant - i wish they could, - but they cannot get involved. To do so would turn a dire situation, into possible thermo-nuclear war

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 14,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Dcully


    How many hijackings are you talking about ? It's a 65 km long convoy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Sorry explain why France cannot go to war with Russia if Russia invades Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Gladly - we will ignore the obvious questions - why has Russia done this - is there a reason - response of the United States - Northern Ireland -Shared History, good Friday agreement - Irish Americans - The UK - we will keep it simple - Russia is invading Ireland

    The Reason France could not specifically intervene would be that it would Involve a NATO country (France - nuclear armed) entering war with Russia (nuclear armed) -

    -France engages Russia

    -Russia Retaliates on France

    -France has been attacked - triggers article 5 NATO Treaty

    -UK US GERMANY FRANCE et al - at war with Russia

    -Nuclear exchange - possible civilization ending scenario

    The fact is your example is probably impossible to contemplate or fully understand? There would likely be more willingness to trigger Article 5 IN ANY CASE - Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis stated

    " It shall be the policy of this Nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union."


    Arguably, Ireland is in said hemisphere - so its possible invading Ireland would result in nuclear war defacto - Finland or moldova would provide better examples of Non NATO countries - Moldova especially given the Transnistrian Issue and lack of NATO/EU membership

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭DeadHand


    It is almost impossible that Russia would attack NATO or that NATO would attack Russia or intervene directly on in the Ukraine.

    This established, is there any possibility of Eastern European States, encouraged by the conduct of the invasion so far, acting unilaterally here?

    I had a thought today of Poland, possibly along with a coalition of other Eastern European nations, moving into Western Ukraine to bolster the remaining Ukrainian forces.

    Can they act outside NATO? Would they ever dare?

    I doubt it, but it makes for an interesting thought.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    That is not how Article 5 works

    It is a defence pact, not a "row in behind an attacker" pact. No matter France's motivations, it would not trigger Article V. Course at that point, NATO may well get involved anyway. These are all stupid hypotheticals as Ireland would obviously never be a first strike target.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Im only citing my own experience and studies here - so some may disagree (although i would love to hear how and why -

    IMHO - no - They wouldnt - and given the stakes at play here - they shouldnt

    What is always possible, is clandestine assistance - I would not be surprised by continued supply, and possibly training of Ukrainian forces - some overt (the west will support Ukrainian freedom et al) - some Covert (Basically any and all who want to 'kill russians' are welcome to join freedom brigades, and be trained with the use of advanced weapons, for irregular warfare) - none of this would be without precedent (Nicaraguan Contras, armed and trained by US - Afghans armed and trained by the US - VietCong armed and trained by the Chinese/Soviets)

    But as to a proper official military engagement with Russia - No -

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech



    It kind of is? If they were retaliated against for involving them in a conflict, by a state actor (Russia in this case) - They would trigger Article 5 - Are you saying you suspect they would not trigger it? I mean they would have a choice - yes - But is it a choice? If Paris were being bombed, would they resist triggering it? TBH we could debate the triggering of Article 5 and whether its Automatic, Implied, or a 'Button' - My understanding is that its the latter but

    Using ireland is silly which is why i recommended using Finland or Moldova as examples - but i suspect France would NOT get involved in either case - interested to see what you think

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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