Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Oil up $5 again. Wheat jumping up from one trading break to the next.

at this point holding property is safer than owning EUR. Sterling hitting the highest level since the referendum against the EUR (funny giving that according to the Irish press, Brexit is an unmitigated disaster…). If the ecb doesn’t act , the EUR will disappear this decade.

inflation will be brutal this year and punishing the Irish middle class. Loving it 😍

That's absolutely grim!

the euro should be fine, provided governments and institutions do what needs to be done, when its needed, theres too much for all of us to lose if theres a major euro crash, including you....

My girlfriend was staying in a 6 bedroom house that slept 35 (mostly bunk beds) on Leeson Street when I met her 5 years ago. Kitchen was a bit of a war zone at dinner time but apart from that it was fine.

I did the same when I lived in Australia, 8 people in my room, I don't see too much of a problem with it when you're young, living abroad, don't have too much stuff and want to keep the costs down.

I know a few Romanians who are doing this. They're all in their 30s, and they pay hundreds a month for the pleasure of it.

What sickens me about this is that the state will pontificate about things like diversity and all of that when in reality, they merely wish to import people to abuse for wealth generation. The state and older generations are condemning younger generations to increasingly lower living standards just to keep themselves in pay and pensions.

Granted Eoghan Murphy was the most useless housing minister the state has ever seen.

When David McWilliams talks about the "Property Industrial Complex" in Ireland its the likes of the below he's referring to.

its impossible to know exactly what being insulated means, as its been so long since a major currency has collapsed, and since theres so much to lose from such an event, it may never be truly allowed to occur, but who knows.....

i suspect no one would be safe from such an event either....

Using the states natural resources to control the population!

Remind you of any other prominent regime

Euraud eurnzd eurusd and eurgbp dropping every day. 1month implied volatilities going bonkers, soon these drops will become bigger :)

going to australia/nz/uk looking mightily attractive for tradespeople again.

good for house prices ;)

the sooner this abomination of a currency is finished, the better.

Compare implied v realized.

Quite simply rent controls have caused all of the issues we see now. Ever changing legislation just keeps making it worse.

SmokyMo is obviously well off if they can afford to give below market rent to their tenants. Because it will effect the value of their house a lot, when the decide to sell. Obviously they arent worried about the long term risk of getting a bad tenant either.

Most landlords have to consider all these things and also that the rent control now ensures they will be losing money every year forward due to inflation.

They cant build up a pot to pay for unexpected issues. Also they cant build up a pot to get them, over the long haul if they ever get a bad tenant who wont leave.

100% of the blame for the current rewtal supply and prices is down to the government and their interference. of course so many landlords leaving is going to have a a big effect. People would rather get out than stay in under the current rules. New entrants will not be there either with the risk. Only REITS and councils, who are buying up everything anyway and bidding against ordinary citizens, driving prices up too. Not to mentio sweet deals with the irish tax payer to pay the rent for 30 years to the REITs.

I see no way back from this point

What is the alternative than to compromise. Continue paying higher rents how will you be saving paying more rent and trying to save at the same time as apposed to just paying a mortgage then the hope that prices will fall when the majority of the indicators would suggest they will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Ask anyone who went into negative equity after 08 how much better off would they have been to rent instead of buying in pre 08 and the majority will tell you they were better off buying. Negative equity only hits if you have to sell and anyone in dire straights has the "family home" protection in Ireland its like having a free throw at the dice when you think about it and although we go through peaks and troughs with regards to property prices one thing that historical data proves is that house prices in the main have trended upwards since buying property began. Look do whats right for yourself buy , dont buy its no skin off my nose but you need to clear about the facts

But the fact is if those restrictions were lifted property prices would rocket up again so they are undervalued. This is a fact

...again, do you realise the dangers of such an event, it would probably mean a catastrophic global crash, where effectively nobody would be safe from, yes the euro has some very serious issues, but going back simply isnt an option...... willing it on, well thats just weird and kinna messed up!

If they can save now while renting and can keep saving, I would be building up more cash at least for one or two more years, as it is undoubtedly the worst time in recent history the past year to buy. I also maintain that we haven't learned our lessons that lead to 08 so even though house prices have climbed back up the last 10 years, I don't think that has been a stable climb and could see the whole last twenty years of housing market growth being stripped away when the direction of the market changes (ie the State isn't redirecting cash into the market to inflate costs and institutionals are not dictating policy like they have been). With the Shinners in power the housing crisis will get worse before it gets better so I could see, in the absence of a global financial crisis, the trend for renting over buying to continue to dominate.

Further, the trends are for home owners to become the minority in the next decade or so which means that the majority of the population, who vote, will welcome a housing market decline or a crash as they will be renters who, quite simply, have no stake in a booming property market. This is where we are heading in 10 years from now which, for me, indicates that housing costs will be lower in 10 years than they are today as who holds the voting power will dictate policy and that is who will hold the voting power, unless something drastically changes.

And that is not even to touch the pension timebomb; in 25 years we will have a whole generation of people retiring who never were able to buy and will need to be provided for in terms of pensions and housing from when they stop working until they die. The solution to this timebomb is of course to raise funds to cover the costs of putting a safety net under these people but another solution is for housing costs to be gutted as that will make it far cheaper for the government to have to provide for these retiring renters (remembering that policy today is trending towards renters being the vast majority of the population in 25 years the way things are going).