Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Indeed I think they are letting them through so they can try and get them back to the leasing companies.

I don't think Putin has miscalculated his military capabilities.

His security apparatus have told him what he wants to hear.

It was inevitable, if the only acceptable answers to your questions or demands for 20 years is yes and you surround yourself with an increasing shrinking circle of hard line nutters, you will tend to get gross erroneous information.

To say the mood is awkward in the Kremlin war room at the moment would be a understatement.

Be prepared to hear the news that an advisor or 2 tragically falling out windows.

The same mother Russia that is going bankrupt by the day.

There is loads of false media out there too. The sanctions are not crippling Russia the way we think they are and some of the sanctions are in place only but not all I could bet on that. Russia are coping well for a country that is supposed to be virtually shut down.

Yeah, despite being a member, they absolutely won't let the UN in, they'll claim it's a Western conspiracy and as we've seen they will attack UN convoys

They are refusing to open their stock exchange.

The fingers in the ears la la la la la economic plan.

I do remember the Kursk disaster. The Russians were more concerned about the PR than saving those sailors.

I agree, the Russians are cold and resilient people. And even though they got rid of the Czars, they still have an inherent need for a visibly strong leader. Democracy structures bore them somewhat - they need someone to be the boss. I am sure when Putin goes, the next guy will have to be just as intimidating and arrogant to survive.

I did a strawman post on how I think this will play out if you are interested.

Russia - Page 587 — boards.ie - Now Ye're Talkin'

I dont understand the outrage re the nuclear powerplant in the whole context of this war. It was always a vital target for the russians to seize and not destroy this site. It would have made living in crimea a bit complicated if they would have blown up those 6 reactors. I dont believe Ukraine had a large force defending it for the same reason. So all in all its an expected move which Selensky is blowing out of proportion to gain more attention ( all logical by the way)

If Selensky was only 20% as demented as Putin he would have Blown up the whole thing and let the northerly winds do the rest

There's a certain amount of hangover from the communist days where the state dictated every aspect of your life...from the cradle to the grave, 365 days a year. But communism "ended" in 1991, and so should be nothing but a memory now for older Russians, yet it lingers on. Protesting in Russia carry's a cost, and that cost has now increased to a possible 15 year prison sentence ( rushed through the Duma this week) for anyone spreading "fake" information, or making statements about the military. Its on TV about a Babushka who survived Stalingrad, yet who was arrested on the streets because she protested about the War in Ukraine. In just 4 days, 6'000 war protesters were arrested and imprisoned, and that figure is rising. And Putin is appearing on TV, with his lying claims that no civilians are being hurt, and the "Intervention" is just to root out Nazi's and protect ethnic Russian's. So Putin is attacking Russians too, and it will not end until his grip on power slips,,,,and that will only happen when Russians in their hundreds of thousands take to the streets , and take on the police. Revolt in effect. And even if that happens, Putin will pit the military against them.

I'm not so sure about this American waning power narrative, they are no doubt still running the game, as much as any single country has.

They can cause mayhem anywhere globally without commiting a single soldier and economically they can conduct the orchestra still in the right conditions. Of course we are all interdependent now. Globalisation has been great for world peace, the more interdependence we can get, the more the hands of any single country or regime will be tied. These Russia sanctions will be a great test, I hope it works.

On the "ordinary Russians don't know" subject - I'm pretty sure most of them must know Putin is more gangland mafioso than politician. Garry Kasparov would have been one of the most famous men in Russia when his attempt to run for the Russian presidency was crushed by Putin's gang. They know their dictator is a criminal, they're just (not unjustifiably) too scared to rise against him.

Good article from the BBC on how it might end, my money is on the "Long War" scenario at this stage.

Sanctions work over years though not days. It will need all of Europe to stick with them through next winter and possible impose oil and gas sanctions too.

Sorry to sound pessimistic. but unfortunately i don't see a clean way out of this mess.

The russians will not allow themselves to lose in Ukraine, even if they had to bring the whole country to the ground, and they made it perfectly clear that they're willing to go nuclear if they had to.

Eventually the Russians are going to win, they are not playing around, but we are.

knowing the American modus operandi, they'll keep fighting the russians to the last Ukrainian, deal as much blows as they can to the russians then pull out when they think they've done the maximum they can. It's only a question of when, just take a look at Afghanistan.

Americans got absolutely no interest in Ukraine but to poke the russians. they made it clear that they have no intention to send a single soldier to fight for the Ukrainians, nor the EU is willing to go into a nuclear adventure.

Perhaps the Mig-29 shipment the EU/Nato promised to the ukrainians was met with a direct threat from the russians escalating to nuclear strikes on Ukraine thus got abandoned.

what matters to me personally is Europe, europe will pay a hefty price for this war in its economy first and foremost, in the end the americans will pull out and the russians will calm down, the europeans though will be left with refugees, economic difficulties and an angry bear on the eastern front.

Ukrainians will be left without a country.

If i was a european in charge, i'd push a policy for the future set a roadmap that results in the following, kick the americans out of europe, dismantle Nato, increase military spending and invest in own security, intoduce more robust mutual defense clauses in the EU agreement, no point in relying on the americans any longer if all they care about is geopolitical meddling rather than security. have talks with the russians and negotiate a solution for the Ukrainians that is a win win for everyone, while most importantly maintaining peace with the russians. Europe should have its own agenda and work towards it - no outsiders.

we had a chance to avoid all this mess altogether, but proper leadership is absent nowadays, short sight is pretty much the norm.

Right now european leaders are driven by apparent emotions, perhaps to please the masses since some of them got elections coming up and they need to secure their seats.

I'm sorry but emotions and right/wrong do not mix up well with geopolitics, without going down to the delusion that we can uproot a tyrant on top of a superpower, in the end Europe is going to be forced to deal with Putin and come to terms or a nuclear World War 3 and lose everything that was built since the end of the second world war. choose one.

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another huge mistake that we're doing is alienating the russian people, banning them from sports, Paralympics for real like we're punishing them

thus providing more munition for the tyrant to justify his war internally and build up hate in his population that might explode much more dramatically on the long run.

we're at a turning point in history and going forward we need to proceed with absolute caution if life really matters to us.

just my final 2 cents on this matter.