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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,970 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Terrible idea. Many left because they hate Putin. We should encourage more of them to come over here and cause a full on brain drain.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,331 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Restatement by NATO leadership against a no fly zone, however pointed towards a goal of increasing Ukrainian air defense capability. I can see the US using the opportunity to battle test their newly developed shorad systems against Russian hardware.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Maybe they left because they hate Putin, more likely they left for the opportunity for a better life in a civilised part of the world. According to this site, there are over 6m Russians living in Europe (2m+ in Northern, Western and Southern Europe with a further 4m in Eastern Europe). Exclude those in Eastern Europe since many will have been born exactly where they currently live and maps have changed since and allowing for the fact that number no doubt includes a large number of Ukrainians and you have 2m. Say half that again to allow for those who've acquired citizenship in an EU country through marriage etc and who are happy to give up (or already have given up) their Russian citizenship and you'd have 1m odd Russians who should no longer be welcome in our world.

    Send 1m people across the borders in Estonia and Latvia and now Putin has a humanitarian crisis on his own hands to deal with that would be on a par with that which he's inflicted on the EU with his invasion of Ukraine. A perfectly proportional response and one which might not only distract from the Russian war effort but also sow further dissent amongst the Russian population.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    The invasion is quite literally being carried out in their name. No citizen can wash their hands of the crimes of their leaders until they hold those leaders accountable for them. Yes, I get that this would mean death for many of them but being brutally simplistic: it's far "fairer" that Russians die getting rid of their terrible leaders than it is for Ukrainians to be sacrificed to appease them.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I read an article yesterday talking about a kind of modern day "lean/lease" program analogous to the one in the early days of the 2nd World War.

    Lots and lots of NATO kit being nominally sold to Ukraine , the challenge of course of all of that would be delivery.

    The specific suggestion was the immediate provision of several squadrons of A10's as they were expressly designed for Air to Ground assault in the European theatre and apparently would require negligible training for military pilots to get up to speed on.



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    And what exactly will that achieve, other than creating a desperate and resentful nuclear armed and powerful country in Europe, more specifically one who, all other things being equal, the EU wants to improve relations and trade with?

    The sanctions as imposed will make it somewhat more difficult for Russia, but will not prevent them from increasing their military capabilities into the future. Russia have a huge military industrial complex. They are the second largest arms exporting nation, and possibly the third largest arms producing nation (given that the extent of the Chinese military industrial capacity is somewhat unclear but increasing). Russia currently officially spends 4.3% of its GDP on its armed services. But if a nation has the political will this can increase massively. North Korea spends about 24% of its GDP on the military, and isn't engaged in any kinetic war activities.

    I think you may not fully understand the fundamental idea behind the EU - if you make countries and economies so inter dependent that war becomes a self defeating venture, you will discourage war and create the ideal situation for peace and co-operation. The ultimate goal is not to destroy Russia, it is to achieve peace in Europe. If by doing so Russia becomes wealthier and so no longer has an incentive to invade its neighbours, that is only to the good.

    So sanctions are a last resort and are not really a long term solution. There has to be some end goal where Russia wants peace in Europe. It is the goal of the EU to encourage this, and to do so primarily by trade and economic interdependence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭Notmything


    The problem with that is it could easily be seen as NATO intervention and escalation.

    At the moment Russia appears to tolerate the current level of support being given to Ukraine.

    Supplying modern systems not yet used by Ukraine may well be a tipping point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Wouldn't say all of them but yep I think some of the visas should be edit: revoked, even though this is not a popular position here as far as I can see. People directly connected with the leaders/oligarchs first anyway. People not here very long (< 1-2 years?) + not likely to be endangered if they go home (they aren't activists, haven't publically spoken against govt./Putin while out of the country). No new visas either. I mean Russia is the Conquering Empire and all that - surely you can go home/stay at home and do your degree or the like over there or find a good job, instead of travelling to and living in the decadent and anti Russian West?

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    The lower house of the Russian Parliament has passed a law criminalizing the spreading of false information discrediting the Russian military and any calls for sanctions against Russia. Those charged with breaking the new law could face fines of 1.5 million rubles(€12,300), prison sentences of up to 15 years or up to 5 years in labour camps. You're not allowed call what's going on in Ukraine as war or an invasion. 🙄


    Edit: Well Russian journalists, citizens and foreign journalists in Russia are not.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    No doubt there's a fine line to be tread here and I doubt that any of the absolute latest technology will officially be sent , but the US in particular has huge stockpiles of notionally "obsolete" equipment that would be more than up to the job for the Ukrainians and measurably better than whatever they've got now.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yesterday in this thread, I wrote about the difficulty in convincing the Russian population that they are being fed a pack of lies. It's comforting to think that if they are just shown the truth then they will wake from the spell. Unfortunately that is not how things work. We have seen this again and again in recent years. From Brexit, to Trump and especially Covid-19 once people go down a disinformation Rabbit Hole it's almost impossible to show them the way out with logical arguments and contrary evidence.

    Today the BBC have a particularly stark example of this in action. It features victims of this invasion whose own parents do not believe their stories because it contradicts what they've been hearing in the Russian media.


    Example #1

    Oleksandra and her four rescue dogs have been sheltering in the bathroom of her flat in Kharkiv since the shelling began. The 25-year-old has been speaking regularly to her mother, who lives in Moscow. But in these conversations, and even after sending videos from her heavily bombarded hometown, Oleksandra is unable to convince her mother about the danger she is in. "But even though they worry about me, they still say it probably happens only by accident, that the Russian army would never target civilians. That it's Ukrainians who're killing their own people." Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

    "It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them," says Oleksandra.


    Example #2

    At night their children woke up at the sound of explosions and couldn't stop crying. The family made the decision to move to the outskirts of Kyiv and then flee abroad.

    They travelled to Hungary, where Mykhailo left his wife and children and came back to Western Ukraine to help the war effort.

    He was surprised not to have heard from his father, who works at a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. He called his father and described what was happening. His father replied that this wasn't true; there was no war and - in fact - Russians were saving Ukraine from Nazis.

    Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.


    Example #3

    Anastasiya, a BBC Ukrainian correspondent who moved to Kyiv 10 years ago, heard bombs exploding after waking and was worried about where would be hit next. "I called my mum again. I told her I was scared. 'Don't worry', she said, reassuringly. 'They [Russia] will never bomb Kyiv'."

    But they are already doing it, Anastasiya replied.

    "I told her there were casualties among civilians. 'But that's what we had too when Ukraine attacked Donbas!', she said, laughing. For a moment I couldn't breathe. Hearing my mum say this with such cruelty just broke my heart."





  • Registered Users Posts: 4,884 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Russia is already nuclear armed and quite desperate and its leader and the clique that must be around him seem very resentful and angry towards us, or they would not have launched this war. I set out 2 things sanctions/cut off of Russia would achieve in my post.

    1. It will hopefully make Russia much weaker, and less able to wage such a large scale and costly war on another country in Europe (it could be an EU member next time out).
    2. It will reduce our dependence on them and thereby their influence which because of current attitude of their leaders towards us and our ideals is just leverage and power they gain. The exact reverse of your point about interdependency encouraging trust and cooperation etc.

    I'm assuming here that they succeed more or less in their goals for Ukraine/the war and current leadership there survives this. As regards an "arms race", am pretty confident the EU countries collectively can easily match or beat them at such if they do want to pour all of what is left of a hopefully much reduced economy into such futility.

    I understand the idea behind the EU perfectly, but it seems you are not fully grasping what is going on at the moment or what has changed in Europe since Russia launched this war. Your prescription is what was tried really post Cold War. Increase trade, increase cooperation, increase interdependency and make conflicts impossible.

    It did not work though, seems you can't trust autocracies/dictatorships at the end of the day. The idea of Russia engaging in trade and cooperation with the EU for betterment of all under Putin's leadership seems an impossible fantasy to me now. The idea of it joining the EU seems a very, very long way off in the distance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    western union doesn’t list Russia as a banned country.

    Russia is a country that is seriously going rogue and we have yet to see what depths of depravity they are capable of at the moment it is disturbingly going in one direction.

    In my place of work I am rubbing shoulders with a Russian guy who has pro Putin rhetoric on his Facebook page



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,670 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    So your solution is to make the depravity more two-way?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭amacca


    Isn't it fascinating.....scary at the same time.

    I never realised until I got older how few people have the mental resources/capacity/extra space/maybe just the will... to think about most things objectively/beyond a surface level.

    It's not all about intelligence levels either.....some very intelligent/successful people can have quite glaring holes in their ability to analyse things.....they can be a genius at a narrow specialism and a complete gullible moron that would fall for an utterly a ridiculous conspiracy theory/scam etc etc


    My parents believe most of what they hear on Joe Duffy from the craziest of guests sometimes even with opposing viewpoints that contradict with only a day or two elapsed between shows.....they are elderly but ain't stupid....try to criticise Joe and point out that the point is to bring on a certain % of loopers to drive listenership and you'll get met with "he's doing great work" 😄.....they simply can't grasp he's playing a game may have an agenda himself etc etc


    If a lot of people weren't this way there wouldn't be dictators and I suspect democracy would function a lot differently too.....they can be manipulated as a collective.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,331 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I can imagine that they can supply a lot of drones fairly easily. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO embedded personnel as "trainers" with the Ukrainians, in a similar fashion to what the Russians did in Korea and Vietnam. I would be very interested to see if they give them naval drones. There's a lot of capacity for attacking Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    You are correct in my view.

    Saying that because Ukraine is not in NATO, and therefore cannot be defended by said Alliance, is one thing. But we cannot simply give Putin everything he wants, every time, every where - in case he 'nukes us' - a line will need to be drawn

    As i stated over in the thread on possible Ukrainian capitulation - At some point, someone, is going to have to sit down with Putin. And a map. He will need to be shown where his border is. And be given a sufficient time to get on the correct side of it. It has to happen eventually. He cannot be allowed to hold the world hostage, on the threat of nuclear war

    IMHO

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,664 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Surely the thrust of sanctions should be to target Putin's close associates.

    1. Announce that any good/securities/properties of oligarchs will be seized - and if they transfer ownership after (now), the new owners will not have title and they will still be seized. This would prevent the oligarchs from off loading their ill-gotten stuff.
    2. Try to get money laundering cases expedited to further item 1 above and have legal cases started.
    3. Any shell companies hiding beneficial ownership should be annulled, and the beneficial ownership exposed. Use of such companies should be considered as attempts at tax evasion unless it can be proved otherwise.
    4. Any tax havens that fail to co-operate with the above should suffer sanctions.

    I think the loss of huge proportions of their wealth would certainly soften their coughs and make them more inclined to open dialogues with Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    We learned the definition of a pyrrich victory when i was young, i think it might be spelled putin for the next generation.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nothing screams our differences, from Putin, is internment and forced migration of innocents


    Well done, I didn't think comments could get this low



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    With Regret - while it is vital to target individual oligarchs, Putin, and members of his inner circle - the bulk of the sanctions should be on state assets, the Russian financial services sector, and industry/commerce. I know some will cry out that this will harm ordinary Russian citizens. And yes, it will hurt them financially

    I sympathize - but with the news of Ukrainian civilians fighting and dying - hurting Russian civilians financially, can be considered 'collateral damage' - i dont know how else to put it. The west will not intervene militarily. They will not 'hurt or kill russians soldiers' (and we know why) - financially hurting Russians is all they can do

    There is also the hope (faint as it may be) that this 'hurt' will hinder the war effort, and swing at least some in the general populace

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,967 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    You say this as if its that simple but the leading theory is Putin has spent his time during isolation completely reinventing history and decided where Russias borders should be himself. Talking him down from that position is going to be nigh impossible and i honestly see the only way of stopping him is regime change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Cmon now. Suggesting cancelling ordinary Russian's visas is crazy stuff.

    Politically exposed persons I'm listening and we can have a chat, but you've lost me if you're talking about jacking out ordinary Russians. Will never happen anyway as we're a democracy but get it out of your head.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    i never suggested deporting ordinary Russians here myself. But I would be more comfortable if pro Putin Russians here were checked out to see what they are doing here. Which I Realise is probably most definitely not happening at the moment. Russia has confirmed this week that it is a murderous rogue state that doesn’t care about optics, which putting it mildly is a very dangerous development.

    As an aside I have Irish friends who are trump fans and even up to this minute think Vlad is cool and a bad ass they have clearly gone down the twisted social media rabbit holes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    oh no i completely agree. It will be tough. Deciding when to do it, In what context, and where the line should be. Genuinely, 'Summitry' not to coin a phrase, can backfire badly, or it can have genuine positive effects. But in my view, at some point, a summit will need to be held.

    Putin is in the process of consuming an independent democratic state. His rewriting of history is staggering. And we can draw conclusions that no where in the region is safe. At some point the west will have to draw a line. Whether its done publicly (Biden-Putin) or privately (Clandestine meeting in places unknown) - it will happen. plenty of precedents.

    The alternative is: Any state actor which has Nuclear weapons - can do anything it likes. And no one will intervene, in order to avoid risking a nuclear exchange. THIS possibility, would be a disaster for the world in general, and for the following in particular, in no particular order (to name but a few)

    • Finland
    • Moldova
    • Sweden
    • Taiwan
    • South Korea
    • et al

    So yes, in my view, the conversation will need to be had. and red lines will need to be drawn

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,110 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It's not all about intelligence levels either.....some very intelligent/successful people can have quite glaring holes in their ability to analyse things.....they can be a genius at a narrow specialism and a complete gullible moron that would fall for an utterly a ridiculous conspiracy theory/scam etc etc


    This is very true. One of my colleagues is exceptionally intelligent. He is very logical and rational when it comes to what we do. He is a little bit arrogant but he is the most talented member of the team so he can get away with it as he's usually correct.

    When it comes to non-work related topics though he's a disaster. This came to a head during the Pandemic when he went through all of the various stages of disbelief, denial and disinformation:

    1. There's no such thing as Covid
    2. It's just like the flu
    3. Lockdowns are a waste of time
    4. Hardly anyone is really dying of Covid
    5. Masks are a waste of time
    6. The government are trying to control you
    7. The vaccines are dangerous
    8. More people die from vaccines than Covid
    9. Vaccine passports are like being under the Nazis

    In the beginning some of us engaged with him on this topic but we soon realised it was a complete waste of time. If you tried to debate with him and countered his statements with evidence to the contrary, he'd just get more wound up and then pivot to something else via whataboutery. It was like trying to nail jelly to the wall.

    I think that he was so used to being right in the area that he had some expertise in that this imbued him with a false sense of confidence in other areas that he most certainly had not.

    Disinformation is powerful and can be scarily affective. It has a way of plugging into and engaging cognitive biases in a way that is almost impossible to counter. And that's in the west where people have access to a wide spectrum of media to counter any disinformation. In Russia where they do not, I can only imagine that it is even more powerful. Also the Russian disinformation is seeped in Nationalism so it's even more effective. Nobody wants to believe that their country are the bad guys.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    i should also say - getting Putin out of power - by any means - would be preferred OF COURSE - and it is the best outcome we can hope for - i just dont know if it can happen

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 665 ✭✭✭goldenmick



    Surely the thrust of sanctions should be to target Putin's close associates.


    ...and his army.

    They've been helping themselves at the Ukrainian pumps. A sanction here would be good...





  • Registered Users Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    I said nothing of internment, you don't need internment camps to deport the citizens of a hostile nation state you simply revoke their visas and put them on a train/plane to the border.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You are segregating people who are legally in a country, for the the actions of their home country, not against us, for the purposeful reason of causing a humanitarian crisis on a border. Nothing wrong with that attitude at all.


    And how do you plan on rounding all these people up and processing them?



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