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If Ukraine just allowed Russia to overtake their government.... ?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    1) Ukraine and Georgia comes to mind if you wish recent examples...

    2) Ukraine's government's goal is to remain a country with in the borders that are recognized internationally; but by your standards the Polish should simply rolled over when Nazi Germany invaded since there was no reason to fight.

    3) If Russia offered to pull out from all Ukrainian soil there would already be peace as that was the offer Ukraine brought to the table, Russia refused. Russia wants a puppet state which will never be acceptable to Ukrainian people (hence the previous puppet being kicked out in the first place). Russia can try to occupy Ukraine or install a new puppet there but neither of them will work (to costly in $ and life and it simply will not last as the Ukrainian military will not support the new leader). The end result now no matter what Russia does is that Ukraine will pivot even harder towards Europe and Nato because of Putin's actions, and even Putin can see that; so why would Ukraine give it all up to become a Putin slave state again?

    4) Yes; the Ukraine government wants to actually not be sent to a Siberian gulag which is the current plan by Putin by all accounts due to the "Nazi leadership" by a jew, or have you missed the confused and contradicting statements Putin and his band of sycophants have been putting out? They win by remaining in place as Putin can't win a short, let alone long, term war.

    Here's the simple status, Putin has fked up and is now in a lose / lose situation. No matter what outcome (full occupation, partial occupation, bomb it down etc.) will end up with Ukraine outside the Russian sphere of influence. Other countries he'd like to try to control has taken notice of Ukraine and are moving even more rapdily towards the west as well. He's costing Russia soft and hard power by engaging in a war he can't win for a price he's already lost. Putin will go down in history as one of the worst leaders of Russia and even if they flatten Ukraine before they leave the west will help build Ukraine up again, which is more than Putin will be able to say about Russia who will turn into an African style country exporting raw material to China.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,318 ✭✭✭liamtech


    I dont think its an exaggeration to say that from a western perspective, Russia will have zero soft power left by the end of this crisis - If he levels Kiev

    • The public outcry globally will be deafening - yes he can roll out Lukashenko on state TV who will obviously state Russia was in the right but no other state leader will - with china reminding people its a 'partner not an ally' - read between the lines. Morally China wont care but China has customers - the west - and we care, so they will certainly keep that in mind.
    • While inevitably China and India (among others) will do business - the west will be thoroughly revolted. the public of western countries would metaphorically lynch anyone who reached out to normalize relations with the Putin Regime
    • 22 years of efforts by Russia in the west, have ended in complete failure. Their Propaganda stations have been banned. Even if they were to find a way to broadcast their vile, i dont think its an exaggeration to say, no one is listening. All of the money he has thrown into RT, and the 'front facing' media arms - is sunk. Gone, not coming back
    • Countries such as Switzerland, and international sporting agencies such as FIFA, UEFA, World Rugby etc - have all turned their back on Russia. If they watch Kiev get leveled, there will be no way back
    • Multinationals have begun to view Russian products and commodities as 'toxic' and are wholeheartedly avoiding - Economic sanctions have crippled the Russian Ruble, and banking restrictions prevent them from accessing foreign currency in foreign central banks
    • Large Social media companies are withdrawing, or being banned - and large companies who supply luxury equipment equipment to the Russian market have pulled out - the joke being sent around on whatsapp in Russia is 'dont drop your IPhone, you wont get another'

    The bottom line is that the Russian Military can achieve victory (Hard Power) - But economically (soft power) Russia is being flattened. Yes they can survive - if North Korea can, they can - but at what cost?

    Diplomatically they have turned so many heads in the UN - its staggering. Accusing the Germans of not being sufficiently 'denazified' - blaming Liz Truss for Nuclear Escalation. Accusing Japan for teaming up with Nazis a second time - the latest 'blame Ukraine for Nuclear near miss' - their credibility is gone -

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,606 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It would have been an appalling move, for the Ukranians to hand power to the Russians without a proper fight.

    It would have turned a war against Russia into a civil war akin to the Irish Free state or it would have led to the brutal domination of Ukraine by Russia



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    1)eh....right now? That's a stupid question

    2) 2 weeks ago almost everyone (including Ukraine) was convinced Russia would not invade. The US were called fearmongers for saying it was going to happen

    3) Russia doesn't want them neutral. It wants them neutral and demilitarised so they can exert control over them and presumably so it will be less embarrassing next time they invade.

    4) "certain rights" - as in the right to actually have your own country as opposed to being ruled by an autocratic dickhead from Moscow? They are not fighting a war to "join NATO", they are attempting to repel an invasion to not be conquered by an imperialist fantasist who is in charge of Russia.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,624 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,624 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight





  • Registered Users Posts: 1,729 ✭✭✭Sugar_Rush


    Whilst I wish all this were true, his military dwarfs Ukraine's and nuclear capabilities dwarf the entire worlds.

    ......

    How do you figure he "can't win"?


    One of the greatest ironies of this situation is Putin's will to reinstate former soviet values, whilst he sends his children to school and university in the Netherlands, basically a culture of values almost in diametric opposition to soviet.

    In physics we trust....... (as insanely difficult to decipher as it may be)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭PCeeeee




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    Russia was in the same position in Afghanistan; they greatly outnumbered on any number you wished to use against the local warlords and a decade later left with the tail between their legs and 15k souls less. If you want something more recent then look at Chechnya and what happened. The same applies in Ukraine; yes they can for sure dominate it military and place soldiers in every city (but once again they need to guard over 40 million people and can only put down 100k or so soldiers total) but they can never win. Because while yes they will hold the cities (and spending a fortune on occupation) the Ukrainian people will never accept them, or what ever puppet dictator they wish to prop up. There will be constant ambushes, bombs etc. against the Russian soldiers there, the soldiers there in turn will ask wtf are we doing here with low morale. And if they pull their military out then there will directly be an revolution kicking out the puppet dictator forcing them to send the forces back in again. And when ever they leave then Ukraine will directly pivot to the West and Nato again putting them outside the Russian sphere of influence. Hence; Russian can't win; all they can do is stall at best and that stalling is going to be very expensive both in pure money (occupations are not cheap), people (soldiers killed) as well as morale and becomes a black hole for no return.

    So TLDR, can Russia flatten Ukraine completly before pulling out? Yes, no one disputes that but that's not considered a victory for Putin; Putin wants Ukraine to not pivot to EU and Nato and that's completely out the window no matter what they try to do. On top of that Putin has as well accelerated other countries he wished to remain in his sphere of influence to run the other direction; Putin wanted to be seen as the person who regained Russia's old glories and land and instead he'll be seen as the biggest failure of a Russian leader because not even red nose Yeltsin lost as much...

    Post edited by Nody on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I mean the wise path for Ukraine here is to enter negotiations, pursue a cautious neutrality and accept Russian demands to abandon Nato membership and recognise Russian claims to Crimea. The Ukrainian government would come out of this "intact", while not necessarily being some pro-Russian autocracy or puppet state. If they did this at this exact moment, they would save the country a hell of a lot of destruction and death while still maintaining the current governmental regime - rather than having to flee or be replaced by the said puppet state or military administration.


    That path simply does not exist as an outcome of talks:

    1. Putin despises Zelensky and his government. He would never broker a deal that left them in power. He sees him as just another critic whose voice needs to be extinguished. He will not be happy until he is dead, jailed or exiled.
    2. Putin has repeatedly indicated that he does not consider Ukraine a separate country. There is no way that he would be happy to only gain Crimea, which he already has. Given the huge cost in financial and reputational that Russia has already incurred he will want a huge chunk of Ukraine - likely the entire southern coastline and everything west of the Dniepr (including Kiev) at a minimum.
    3. The Russians have shown themselves to be dishonest brokers time and time again. Only today they said that they would open a corridor for refugees to escape Mariupol and then reneged on their word to stop shelling the city. Nobody would trust them to keep their word on anything anymore.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,396 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    The Russia bot netyaa’s posts look like someone writing in Russian and putting it through google translate



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,624 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The Guardian reporting that 66,224 Ukrainians have returned home to enlist so far.



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