Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

I came across a n opinion recently that part of Putins strategy is to wait for an opportunity/ develop a narrative and then make a move . This part of country A are Russian speaking, move in a few ‘mercenaries- letting on they are locals not happy with the way the gov is treating and develop unrest, confusion, etc

Sounds: you said: "Considering Nato are suppose to protect EU states, are they afraid once Ukraine are in the EU, they'll have to do something about Putin and the war will escalate further?"

First: NATO protects NATO members, not EU states. Second, Ukraine will take many years to achieve EU membership, even it its candidacy is accepted in principle. you should get the facts and the timeline right.

First of many I'd guess but Hungary has banned grain exports to fight potential shortages and inflation there, Turkey and Argentina doing similar but not full bans. Moldova too but they're small and close so probably more effected.

Ukraine itself it 10% of world grain production and Russia is another 15-20% dependant on the type.

Will be covid protectionism again, and unlike a face mask the likes of Africa and Asia can't fumble on without grain.

There has been speculation for many years that Russian Minorities 'left behind' after the dissolution of the USSR would be used as justifications for excessive Russian Foreign policy - They refer to ethnic Russians in these states as the 'Near Abroad'

(Further reading by Sergey Karaganov - Russian Political Scientist and Public intellectual - Straight shooter in my view)

In terms of the playbook:

• Decry 'ill treatment of Russian minorities in the 'near abroad'
• Arm them, encourage declarations of Independence within specific tactically advantageous regions
• recognize these 'states', and have them 'officially request Russian Assistance'
• Move in with 'special military operations'

It bares striking resemblances to the 1930s. I have said in a few places, to a few posters, that we have been down this road before. I usually frown when someone plays the 'Hitler card' (comparing a state to NAZI Germany, and their leader to Hitler) - In my view, we are beyond that now, comparisons are justified.

In terms of what next, i think it will be important to watch countries with large Russian diaspora, which border Russia or Belarus (Screengrab below from Wikipedia - up to date as of 2017

Ignoring the 'far abroad', and concentrating on said 'near abroad' - The Baltic states, Moldova, and other former SSR's would seem likely targets. We should certainly watch for

• Accusations of mistreatment of Ethnic Russian Minorities, with Moldova/Transnistria being obvious targets (especially given Lukashenko's 'map revelation')
• Grandiose declarations, words to the effect of 'Russia believes in the rights of all people to self determination' - in this new situation, the west should read said declarations with extreme skepticism
• Observe with skepticism the machinations of Russian Proxies within said states - SPECIFICALLY Transnistria, where there is arguably an unofficial Russian Military presence.

Links can be provided to back up all of the above - did not include as have done so (as have others) throughout this thread -

Just announced on BBC NEWS CHANNEL - BBC World News Channel has been taken off the air - this is NOT the Russian Language version, which as i understood, was already off the air.

This is the BBC World News Station - broadcasts from various European/Eurasian Satellites outside the UK

Cannot find link to confirm this but literally just announced -

Probably taken off air by Nadean Doris?

It's very hard to predict what's happening in this man's head now. I see him being very dangerous and mentally unstable. Whatever comes from his mouth is either lie or threats.

As stated to you multiple times - and on multiple threads

• The Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea, along with ARMING the separatists, CREATED THIS PROBLEM in 2014. There are Far Right Groups in every country on earth btw but, oddly enough; If your concerned about tiny numbers of nationalists in your neighbors territory? DON'T INVADE AND OCCUPY IT.. but of course the whole thing was engineered in any case. for exactly this scenario - the Hitler comparisons are justified. He did the same thing in Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland.
• Even this problem which was low level (equivalent of Dissident IRA in the North) was NOT a justification for what is going on
• the separatists in the Donbas were armed in 2014 by the Putin Regime
• The whole world (and its neighbor) knows this
• The wikipedia page you provided is for a conflict which ended 70 odd years ago -
• You keep posting the same stuff, over and over again.
• You are literally disseminating propaganda (yes, i know some of your links are BBC - read point one. consult a timeline of events)

Here is a simple timeline

• Ukraine changes directions - ousts Pro Russian puppet from Power 2014
• Russia Invades annexes Crimea 2014
• Russia armed separatists in the east of Ukraine 2014
• Everything you tend to refer to - *AFTER 2014*

'Against the background of what is a civil war of different identities going back to WW2 & before'

This is a lie @ODriscoll - Equating what is going on to a 'civil war' - is a Kremlin backed Lie, being used to justify a Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

You are either

• A troll getting a kick out of this (in which case you should be ashamed of yourself)
• Genuinely believe this nonsense (in which case you make a fool of yourself)
• purposefully spreading nonsense (in which case, you should by now realize, that you convince no one)

The Ustaše fought with the Nazis and massacred Serbs during World War II but that doesn't excuse what Arkan and the JNA did at Vukovar in the 90s.

Time to grow up and own your actions. There are no justifications for the invasion of Ukraine, just paltry excuses given by the weak.

Usual Caveat - i studied IR which included a module stream on IO (International Organizations and Institutions)- i am however not a career diplomat/politician etc-

The short answer is i dont know

The long answer

There would be precedent for the US to declare that it will regard an attack on <insert region, hemisphere, etc etc> - as an attack on the US - See Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy declaration. What is clear is that Anthony Blinken is currently IN MOLDOVA - So IMHO anything that happens was timed. Bottom line is this sounds like Sabre Rattling - but then so much did before all this kicked off. Moldova has applied for EU membership too which needs to be noted

But, i dont know.

EDIT -If it becomes clear and obvious that something is going to happen RE Moldova - it would be important for the west to act BEFORE the Russians. It puts the Russians in the position, that the west finds itself in currently. (i.e. it would mean: Nato is in Moldova- does the Russian Federation propose they ATTACK NATO)?

Also: Moldova would obviously be encouraged to REQUEST this presence etc etc

SECOND EDIT: Any presence speculated above would probably be restricted to the DeFacto Territory of Moldova - i.e. it would not be within the contested region of Transnistria

DeJure - Moldova is a sovereign state with full autonomy of action, and complete control over it territory

DeFacto - Within the territory of Moldova the Enclave/Unrecognized state of Transnistria exists as a self declared independent state. Moldova does NOT have effective control over this region

Fertilizer was excluded from sanctions I think but the shipping issues will effect that, and some Russian official made mention of banning exports.