Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

gmisk · 06-03-2022 11:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743399#Comment_118743399

Some unverified tweets is not real evidence of Russian air force losses. A no fly zone would decrease the amount of buildings bombed as well as Ukranian hardware hit.

fryup · 07-03-2022 12:05am

^^^^^^^^^^^^

but how do you police it?? its a massive area to cover

Heraclius · 07-03-2022 12:06am

It would almost certainly involve firing on missile sites and air defences inside Russia.

SafeSurfer · 07-03-2022 12:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743392#Comment_118743392

In the past oil exporting countries who tried to price exports in anything other than dollars ended up in invasion/regime change.

None of these countries had nuclear weapons.

China will certainly be hedging their bets away from the dollar as a matter of National security.

Yurt2 · 07-03-2022 12:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743474#Comment_118743474

China can try, but they won't succeed. They can build a bigger basket of euro reserves for instance (the only other reserve currency worth a damn), but divesting from the US dollar, even gradually, is playing with fire as it is pegged to the dollar within a certain bandwidth.

If they hit the big red button and allowed it to float freely, all hell would break loose as the RMB is undervalued probably by 40% or so. Export-sensitive industries would immediately tank.

The dollar is the lifeblood of the world economy and remains so for many many reasons. You can't magic up a new currency, slap the label 'reserve currency' on it and hope it will stick. Replacing the dollar is like trying to perform a blood transfusion on a patient with the wrong blood type.

I accept that time changes all things, but the fundamental reasons why the greenback is overwhelmingly the world's currency have not gone away, and are unlikely to go away any time soon.

SafeSurfer · 07-03-2022 12:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743530#Comment_118743530

Interesting that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently raised the spectre of there being more than one reserve currency.

The very idea of currencies are changing. The digital dollar is more than just an idea now, as are others.

The longest reigning reserve currency was the Spanish silver dollar at 110 years. Sterling lasted for 105 years. The US dollar has been the global reserve currency for 102 years. It is the ultimate fist currency. Your confidence in it is admirable but based on faith alone.

Yurt2 · 07-03-2022 12:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743629#Comment_118743629

On the contrary, it's based not on faith but on economic facts on the ground, and the reality how the global economy is structured and backstopped - and none of those have changed and are likely to change bar a big-bang. Perhaps Vladimir will give it to us if he presses the button in the Kremlin.

If you could somehow convince core oil-producing countries to abandon everything that has enriched them, including and above all their security from predation by an alternate 'empire', convince the major trading economies of the world to settle debts in this new magical currency that isn't even on the horizon, convince central banks around the world that their zero risk Fed backed bonds should be supplanted by something significantly higher than zero risk - then the fundamentals will have somehow changed.

That may be nuclear war or Martians landing, but apart from that, it's not happening. An alternate reserve currency is merely a preoccupation of despots on the USA's sh*t list (usually with good reason), everyone else doesn't really care.

SafeSurfer · 07-03-2022 1:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743655#Comment_118743655

And what are “zero risk fed backed bonds based on? On "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government.

US Inflation is already the highest in 40 years, before energy and food price shocks are considered. To add fuel to the flames the Biden administration have announced a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, hot on the heals of multi trillion dollar stimulus packages.

It never took nuclear war or an alien landing to topple a reserve currency before.

Just conflict, inflation or downright mismanagement.

crushproof · 07-03-2022 1:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118742131#Comment_118742131

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

Lots of information on that link, you can send by credit/debit card, Google Pay or bank transfer. I have already done so.

Yurt2 · 07-03-2022 1:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743747#Comment_118743747

The US Federal government has never defaulted, even under the most extraordinary economic circumstances and have always bent over backwards to meet their debt obligations. That's been American economic doctrine since dot - that's why T-Bills are priced at zero risk, and that's why governments from all around the world, even those that curse the name of America, line up around the block every time there is a debt issuance.

Only two of the above three pose a threat to the dollar as a reserve currency, one of them does not. I'll let you guess which one.

Of the other two that do pose a risk, I'll say this: As long as the US sits between the Atlantic and Pacific ocean, there's not an army, air force or navy that will ever touch it - and Federal Reserve doctrine, as long as the Chairman of the Fed has an IQ above room temprature, will always meet their debt obligations - and it's not exactly a challenge for them to do so.

The prospect of the dollar being supplanted as dominant reserve currency is so negligible as to be relagated to the fever dream of the despot - and really, that's the only time it ever gets brought up, when some autocracy isn't getting their way, and then they're upset with dollar hegemony. For everyone else, the dollar reserve status is like the sun rising and falling and the flowing of the tide - it just is, and they see no reason to change it.

Like I said, the only thing that I can see moving the needle is a nuclear missile strike on the US or little green men (not the Russian kind, the ones from beyond the stars).

Nody · 07-03-2022 10:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743466#Comment_118743466

Or the drone counter parts basically; then constant set of attack fighters in the air / on standby to handle what they spot basically. It's more on having and holding air superiority and not risk getting shot down by ground forces. Which is why you can only do that against inferior armies basically.

Brussels Sprout · 07-03-2022 11:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743470#Comment_118743470

This is key. I think the term "Declaring a No-Fly Zone" is misleading as it sounds quite passive. Although people are coming around now I think some people thought you could just declare one and that would be that - airspace was closed. It's a lot more niggly than that.

NATO would have to actively shoot down Russian planes in order to enforce the no-fly zone
NATO would have to destroy enemy anti-aircraft weaponry to protect the NATO planes involved in the enforcement
In this conflict many of those are actually just across the border in Russian, Ukraine and Crimea

Even now a lot of people have grasped that the No-Fly Zone means point #1 but haven't thought about points #2 and #3

Notmything · 07-03-2022 11:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743279#Comment_118743279

The government has already made it clear the state is not neutral on this issue.

Brussels Sprout · 07-03-2022 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118742895#Comment_118742895

Neither of them are government TDs anymore and neither of them are representing the Irish government over there.

Billy Kelleher's been an MEP since 2019. He'd be serving in his capacity as a member of the European Parliament (incidentally this is why other MEPs were so outraged when Wallace and Daly went to visit an Iranian militia in southern Iraq)

Timmy Dooley lost his seat in the 2020 election so he's no longer a TD either. He is in the Seanad now. He is also (somewhat bizarrely) the vice president of the EU political grouping ALDE. He's over there in that capacity.

Quin_Dub · 07-03-2022 12:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743474#Comment_118743474

Hedging away from the dollar towards what though?

The only other realistic alternative anytime soon would be the Euro and not seeing how that changes the landscape all that much for China in terms of National security.

The EU are just as likely to sanction them for any messing with Taiwan as the US , in fact arguably a bit more so.

Podge_irl · 07-03-2022 12:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744533#Comment_118744533

Would a NFZ even be of significant use? Russia does not have air superiority in Ukraine and it appears it is their artillery doing most of the damage to civilians. Unless a NFZ actually meant a no Russian flight zone, and the Ukrainians were left to attack Russian convoys and artillery positions at will. But that is basically the textbook definition of all out war with Russia.

Brussels Sprout · 07-03-2022 12:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744727#Comment_118744727

Yes, whoever enforced the No-Fly Zone will still fly in the air so again the name is really misleading as it's selective in nature.

Excellent point about the artillery causing the problems. I've just asked a question about that over in the military forum as it's a really thorny one and I really don't know how the Ukrainians can counter it (especially when the Russians are firing from their own territory).

Varik · 07-03-2022 12:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744727#Comment_118744727

The cluster munitions can be deployed from missiles so some of those seen might not be deployed from aircraft but Russia is still dropping a lot of conventional bombs from something.

hotmail.com · 07-03-2022 12:43pm

Good news domestically. The tens of thousands of Ukraian refugees will receive a medical card.

07-03-2022 12:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744891#Comment_118744891

Ummm, good?

They are refugees

hotmail.com · 07-03-2022 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744938#Comment_118744938

I'm certain the government has this planned out.

Fighting Tao · 07-03-2022 12:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744943#Comment_118744943

What? The war that Russia started?

AlexDoll · 07-03-2022 1:01pm

I am from Ukraine... It's hell, our most prosperous cities are destroyed, children and civilians are killed.

Chaos

Getting refugee status is not good.

Who knows what refugee status gives?

kowloon · 07-03-2022 1:07pm

There's a good chance many of them will need to see a doctor, how do you expect them to pay for it? Many of them got out with barely the shirt on their back. I fully expect there to be trouble from a certain cohort once the situation inconveniences them even slightly.

Curious_Case · 07-03-2022 1:23pm

I'm very open to opposing opinions but feeling hopeful that a turning point is close.

A no-fly zone may be becoming less favourable. With Poland's fighter jets, the Ukrainian air force needs to be in the air so that they can attack launch systems.

Arming the Ukrainians may not be as questionable as some say (Clare Daly) because they will fight with dining cutlery alone if they have to, so arming them may end the situation sooner.

I don't think the options that Putin wants us to believe he is considering are available to him at all. If he decides to flex his muscles with even battlefield nuclear weapons, the West may decide to cripple the regime in one fell swoop as they couldn't possibly trust him to increment in steps in response to a measured retaliation.

The Ukrainians have to be the most co-ordinated people on the planet, they will prevail and show the world what "build back better" can really mean.

Gatling · 07-03-2022 1:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744943#Comment_118744943

Any word on council houses

07-03-2022 1:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744943#Comment_118744943

Who gives a crap.

These are people fleeing an active invasion, which has been shown to be targeting civilians.

If you have an issue with our ability to cover this, through our public healthcare system, target your ire towards FF and FG for under resourcing and mismanagement of the system for decades

hotmail.com · 07-03-2022 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118745105#Comment_118745105

Eh before you lose the rag completely, my post was directed at the government. Did you misread it

liamtech · 07-03-2022 1:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118745090#Comment_118745090

Arming the Ukrainians with what ever we can is a moral imperative IMHO, and that includes Fighter Aircraft. It is NOT the same as directly attacking Russia, or becoming involved in the conflict officially. Regardless of what Russia says; frankly nothing Russia says can be taken credibly any more. Yesterday there was an exchange between the embassies of Russia and Germany , in South Africa - screen grabs below. The point is Russia WILL OF COURSE keep issuing threats against western nations who arm the Ukrainians. They want this supply to end, yet it wont, and is only ramping up.

Regardless of what they say, Russia will NOT use such arming as a pretext for a full on Military conflict with the west. They will threaten to do so, but its a false threat. Arming the Ukraine has tonnes of precedents during the Cold war. (VietNam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Nicaragua, et al.. to list just a few) - none of these led to war.

Threats and provocative statements like the above should be viewed as what they are

Empty threats
Nonsensical statements to sow discord in the west
desperation
attempts to blur the lines, in an otherwise Black and White situation.
The only risk of a NATO/Russia conflict would be Direct Involvement, which has been extensively ruled out
Anything else is open season

Brussels Sprout · 07-03-2022 1:57pm

Word coming out of negotiations that Russia claim they will cease the invasion if Ukraine:

Give up their claim on Crimea
Recognise LNR & DNR as independent
Alter their constitution to say they will not join the EU or NATO
Appoint Vikor Yanukovich's vice-prime minister as PM

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500812687009267712

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1500810351192985600

Ukraine have apparently flatly refused these demands.

Well, it's a starting point I guess. Doesn't seem like Russia has budged in it's pre-Invasion demands but the fact they seem to be willing to tolerate Zelensky as President (for now) is interesting - almost an admission that they can't possibly replace him with anyone that would have any legitimacy.

Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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