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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    The Chinese are not important in this scenario.

    Russia has over 7000 nuclear warheads, America has over 6,800, once any exchange begins between these two countries the entire world will be both caught in the crossfire and subject to the immense nuclear fallout.

    It isn't just Russia v America, it's Nato as a whole and European cities will be targeted first leading to tit for tat launches between Russia and European Nato member states running concurrently with ICBM strikes between Russia and America.

    There are simulations of this scenario readily available online. It isn't speculation, this situation has been forecast for decades down to the smallest detail.

    This is why nobody has interfered in Ukraine, the Russian troops in Ukraine would be crushed by Nato, but the retaliation for it would be cataclysmic.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,641 ✭✭✭standardg60




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    That's fine until the nuclear launches begin.

    People seem to have a real problem understanding just how devastating that scenario is. It's mind boggling.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,397 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    My mother has done more damage reversing her Punto in the back yard.


    Is that a euphemism?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,641 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Entertain us with your solution to the invasion please?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭DontHitTheDitch


    That was the guy today, Sukhovetsky was killed a couple of days ago north of Kiev from the reports I read.



  • Registered Users Posts: 35,957 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    DAY 13

    Come on Ukraine!



  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭DontHitTheDitch




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Less hysteria all round would be good

    But are you're saying there if Putin doesn't get his way, he'll launch all his available nukes? Ergo we must give him what he wants?



  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭DontHitTheDitch


    People are not arguing based on a deep study of international relations or strategic planning, the ones I am talking about are of the opinion that Putin is somehow unhinged and likely to just blow a fuse if we refuse to accept that the Ukrainians should just stop fighting. Or that he will fly into a rage because someone on the TV calls him evil. He is not going to launch a nuclear strike based on any of these grounds. He would be shot for ordering a 'grudge strike'.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,293 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Nuclear war might be unavoidable.

    Russia, a nuclear power with what is believed to be around 35-40 ICBM launch sites in Russia, plus subs have invaded the Ukraine, a sovereign country of… 41.3 million people…603,548 km squared landmass of country. For example….The entire UK has a landmass of 242,495 km squared. The Ukraine is about 150% bigger then the mainland UK and Russia is giving it a go….struggling but…



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 SigriStarter




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Its difficult for people to understand in fairness. I sympathize with the obvious wish to do something in the face of horror. And more horror to come if the Russians attack Kiev directly with overwhelming force

    Iv also seen several people talk about how a shooting war with Russia would be opening Pandora's box. I like the saying but i feel an alternative analogy is this: We opened Pandora's box in 1945 when we invented Nuclear Arms. If we could un-invent them - that would get my vote. But we cant, and things are as they are.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    I reckon him being taken out by a sniper perhaps would have had the exact opposite effect on the convoy than was his original intention. Well that's hoping anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,641 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Apologies thought you were referring to today's



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Its possible. Like i said we would have to hope that a chain of command would prevent such a launch. Its difficult to hope that a tyrant is a sane tyrant, but that is kind of where we are at. People could consider one point

    If it were possible to wage a 'successful' war against a Nuclear Armed power - Why didnt they do it during the cold war?

    It cannot be done. There were some lunatics in the US who supported strategies of winning a nuclear war, but these were based on INSANE computations. US could take out the entire Soviet Union and 'absorb' its retaliatory strikes from Missile Subs. Then rebuild. As long as all ICBM Emplacements in Russia were hit, the USSR's 'extreme retribution' would be a price worth paying - You think Putin is insane? These weapons are the reason why British Vanguard class ships carry the 'Letters of last resort'


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭DontHitTheDitch


    I think anyone with at least an average IQ understands the results of a nuclear attack.

    The fact that Putin is making criticism illegal in his own country means he does not feel secure in the decisions he's already made. If he launched in with 'I'm doing this, it's going down my way and no one is going to stop me, either at home or abroad' then maybe there could be a case made that he has lost all sense of perspective and risk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭TheTruth89


    The west wouldn't be waging a war on Russia they would be stopping them in Ukraine.


    Like NATO tomorrow could warn Russia it's implenmenting a no fly zone and to withdraw it's troops within a week or anything left there after that time is considered a target and will be destroyed.

    So there would be no nuclear war and Russia would simply have to leave to stop casualties they can't defeat NATO conventional so they would have no choice.


    It's time to bully the bully



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Lets play that out.

    • West Warns Putin. No Fly Zone to be Implemented over Kiev in 24 hours
    • Putin doesnt recognize their authority to do so. States he will not accept this and intends to continue
    • 24 hours are up. NATO establish combat air patrol over Ukraine.
    • Russian fighters engage Ukrainian targets on the ground
    • NATO Intervenes
    • Shooting war over Ukraine.
    • Putin authorizes Russian Air force to attack NATO airstrips or an Aircraft Carrier
    • NATO defends itself, and retaliates against Russian Airstrips.
    • Putin launches multiple attacks on multiple NATO air strips and bases.
    • Kremlin issues ultimatum to the west. Withdraw in 24 hours or a state of war will exist fully between the Russian Federation and NATO
    • NATO Refuses.
    • 24 hours elapse.
    • Russia Launches first strike.
    • Seeing this, NATO (US UK France) launch everything they have. Second strike.
    • <END OF LINE>

    Obviously the line of engagement could play out differently. Perhaps the west is the one issuing an ultimatum? We dont know. But roughly thats how it COULD go. It might go differently??? Now you could suggest there are several places where one side could back down. Obviously we want Putin to. ..... what if he doesnt? Do we?? Because that would be world ending in another way. No, at that point the US/NATO would be at defcon 1 - They would stand firm

    Its unthinkable - but anyway.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭AxleAddict


    Jaysus - hope it doesn’t come to that - Bojo’s handwriting is awful! 😬😝



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,641 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Pretty accurate reflections of the day to day action on the ground if people want to follow




  • Registered Users Posts: 665 ✭✭✭goldenmick



    I don't have a real problem. I have an opinion. There's a difference.

    I fully understand what the implications would possibly be by directly confronting Putin, but I'd be willing to take that chance as those same implications are going to be there with Russia (and others) forever. And one day one of them will actually do it, even without provocation. You have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.

    Incidentally, my IQ is probably double yours... although I'll concede you have a bigger head judging by some of the derogatory comments you frequently make in your replies to posters.


    @liamtech Its difficult for people to understand in fairness.

    I agree. It is difficult for a lot of people to fully comprehend. But for those who do have a good handle on it and can grasp the fundamentals, risks and potential outcomes, it all boils down to the simple fact that there are those who would watch millions slaughtered for fear of the risk of possible armageddon, and those who would conclude that it's better to confront it because that risk is never going away, not now or in the future.

    If Russia is not being threatened within its own borders, and Nato and/or American troops were to go in and defend the capital and western cities of Ukraine, then Russia cannot feasibly say their actual country is under attack. The Russian people and the world will clearly see that they are just defending another country from an invasion. Of course Putin may still construe this another way, but a small percentage chance of success without nuclear retaliation is better than a large percentage chance of tyranny and nuclear threats for the rest of our days. Just my personal opinion.

    Added: You're obviously an intelligent guy and a lot of your posts are well thought out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭TheTruth89


    Why does NATO have to attack Russian airstrips ? Just keep shooting them down as they come, the Russian armed forces are hopelessly bad, they can't even maintain logistic vehicals doesn't bear much hope for their air force!


    Putin would back down NATO strictly only defends and doesn't attack Russia.


    The idea that Russia will choose to annihilate itself and the world over Ukraine is nonsensical.

    NATO has multiple ways to get involved.


    That aside what makes you so sure Putin is going to just stop at Ukraine if he succeeds? What makes you think he won't attack NATO states like Lithuania,Poland, Estonia ect and threaten the world again with Nukes if they intervene?


    I mean if we go your route thats what happens Russia can essentially invade who ever they like without consequences militarily because nukes and our fear of standing up to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,516 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Two military guys on CNN reckon the Russians are now heavily outnumbered by the Ukrainian army and are in huge trouble - they reckon this is the real reason Russian progress has almost ground to a halt in recent days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Why does NATO have to attack Russian airstrips ? - It would more than likely involve taking out on-the-ground anti aircraft sites but also the strips. At that point the shooting war, and retaliations against Airstrips/AA-Sites would be simply par for the course. Also, if Russia could not respond ~(the hopelessly bad scenario) - they could ASSUME that a defacto state of war exists with NATO, and jump straight to the Ultimatum line of the list

    Putin would back down NATO strictly only defends and doesn't attack Russia. I am remaining polite and courteous, but you are assuming a hell of a lot. Russia, (consider the Russia of today, not last year. Today) could back down. But would they? Their choice, or more to the point, Putin. The purpose of having a nuclear arsenal is to ensure you DONT have to back down. You can DOUBLE down. Deterrence theory 101

    The idea that Russia will choose to annihilate itself and the world over Ukraine is nonsensical. Less than a fortnight ago, i might have agreed. It has been a LONG TWO WEEKS. This is the closest we have come to a serious war since 1962

    That aside what makes you so sure Putin is going to just stop at Ukraine if he succeeds? He has not attacked NATO. He is attacking a small independent nation that is unalligned. There has never been an instance, during the whole cold war, where two fully nuclear armed powers have been in a shooting war. Could he move on elsewhere and attack someone else. Will he? I dont know, speculation doesnt help anyone. I am glad Europe and Britain are between us and him. And i will say this, if i were a Russia Bordering country, i would be considering joining NATO ~(as Finland currently is) - I have worries for Moldova if im honest (google Transistria for more info - probably already discussed)

    NATO has multiple ways to get involved. Again, absolutely no offence intended. But, no. They dont

    The bottom line is i am 100% for assisting Ukraine in every way. I would support any and all weapons and equipment being sent to aid Kiev. Including Jet Fighters, AA, Anti Tank, - you name it. Sadly this is likely to play out as a proxy war... Plenty of precedents

    Thanks for your kind words. I am genuine, and i feel HORRID about this whole situation, especially in Kiev. I could say way more (i am VERY ALARMED by the crazy statements coming from Russian Diplomatic channels. Saying Japan is 'siding with NAZI's again' and 'Germany should have been properly DeNazified' - in particular) - This is a horrid situation. And theres no equivocations for this. RUSSIA IS WRONG. But there in lies the problem - RUSSIA, IS ARMED

    ALL IMHO of course -

    Im off to bed - stay safe everyone. Slava Ukraini

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,293 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    If Putin threatened the west directly and with direct language with a nuclear attack it’s game over for him and Russia…he’s indulged in a little rhetoric but has cloaked it sufficiently..

    that happens I’d imagine either Boris, Biden, Macron or all 3 would have to act immediately … can’t get this situation escalate to that level and just ignore it… they’d have to press the button…

    If it meant wiping out a significant piece of Russia and their population, so it has to be… nobody asked Putin / Russia to go loco threatening millions of people and invading a peaceful and sovereign country and killing hundreds of civilians and destroying large swathes of infrastructure….



  • Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭TheTruth89


    Right firstly you are picking and choosing when it's ok go speculate and when it's not, let's be clear this whole thing is speculation till it plays out.

    NATO can defend Ukraine and not attack Russia, they are a far far superior force, as can be clearly seen with the damage the Ukrainians are doing to them with the weapons being supplied. Russia has lost more in a week than the Us did in 20 years in the middle east. They could 💯 stick it to Putin and defend Ukrainian airspace it would take Abit of bottle. Alas we haven't leaders with a pair to do that.


    Imo the reason the west hasn't intervened yet is due to the success the Ukrainians are having with there support alone, there is no way Russia is going to take and hold Ukraine not a chance with western backed freedom fighters.



    Putin is no where near as much of a mad dog as being potrayed but he is using it to great effect to keep the west from intervening , the problem with this is our stand offish approach only encourages this sort of aggression in future as the west will always back down due to threats of nukes.

    Ukraine today Taiwan tomorrow!


    They have multiple ways in don't kid yourself if they want to go in in the morning they can. It LL be interesting to see how this plays out and how long the wests level headed approach holds up for. Can only keep backing off for so long before they have to stand.


    I do agree a bloody proxy war unfortunately favors both sides, it keeps Ukraine out of NATO and the EU and it keeps Russia weak and bogged down.

    Overall tho an awful tactical blunder by Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,658 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Ukraine's foreign minister tonight on EU membership

    The situation has changed. I won’t talk about which specific countries are now skeptical for now, but some of those countries that were negative now really support us. Some still don’t. But wait. This week will be serious news related to our membership in the European Union.

    A week ago, let’s say, before joining the EU, we were about the same as from Kyiv to the Moon. And now our accession to the EU is about the same as from Kyiv to Vinnitsa.

    This is nonsense, of course.

    There are whole procedures to root out corruption (which is endemic in Ukraine), improve infrastructure, and society to go before it's even serious. This takes many years.

    Russia will never ever accept anyway.

    They need to stop giving people false hope particularly wrt negotiations of surrender underway. This will only make people angry and very disillusioned. They need to be straight up with people and not tell fairytales.

    Need to be realistic. The best they get if they want to retain any semblance of statehood is complete neutrality and a neutered military, no EU. They know this already.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




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  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭BurgerFace


    Does anyone know what the death toll is so far?



This discussion has been closed.
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