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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,321 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran



    Much larger than anyone should be happy with, but far, far less than it would have been (on both sides) had the Russians either gone in like they meant it, or had they been competent. Ukrainian figures are up to 10,000 Russian dead. Obviously, take it with a big grain of salt, as kill claims have historically been over-stated by a factor of three or more. The latest US estimates are 3k+. However, the Russians have lost almost a division's worth of tanks destroyed and captured, which is no small amount of people if the infantry are getting hit to the same extent. The consolation is that this war could have been far, far more lethal.

    Most fuel tanker trucks are 'uncovered'. Never quite understood why, but it's not atypical. I guess from the US perspective, they don't care, as they figure the opposition won't get a look at 'em.

    Hah. I learned early in my military career that it didn't matter if I was wearing subdued rank, but that leaders spoke with their hands and that that was the giveaway.

    Correct, as far as it goes. Ottawa treaty. However, most major military powers are not signatories, and that includes Russia, almost all of Asia, the MidEast, and the US (though the US says it will generally comply, excluding in Korea). Problem is they are extremely effective, so if you're going to get involved in a major war, you probably don't want to hobble yourself. Same with the cluster munitions conventions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 873 ✭✭✭Addmagnet




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    You're willing to take the chance of nuclear war. Maybe do the first bit of research on how a nuclear war would play out before allowing your opinion to dictate the future of our species.

    As for your IQ being double mine, I assuming you don't know a whole lot about IQ scores either. Ireland has an average IQ of 95, I would if pushed assume that anyone advocating for nuclear war whilst quite obviously knowing nothing about it would likely score quite a bit lower than that or they are simply unwilling to accept the truth on the subject.

    Nobody is advocating that Putin should be allowed free reign but the primary logic of nuclear deterrence (that rational people are at the controls) would seem to have been compromised and therefore the potential for nuclear war (which IS worse than what's going on in Ukraine or has gone on in any war previously) is higher than it's been since 1962.

    Glazers Out!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We now have intellectual giants that think the LHC can destroy the world and think NATO should directly attack Russia. Gawd, I hate armchair generals, trolls, preppers, chest thumpers, and bloody gamblers.

    What's the gamble... 8 billion lives, untold unborn.

    Why couldn't Putin be unhinged? Seriously ill, and not caring. Look at the number of people that kill their families and then themselves, because of financial embarrassment etc. There are lots of scenarios where Putin might go rogue. And the gamble.... billions of lives.

    Now, those willing to bet on Putins underlings not firing. Jesus wept. There are dozens of scenarios that would have to go your way... not one single nuclear sub captain wouldn't launch? Ya, right.. idiot gamblers the lot of ye. Do you think Putin hasn't thought of the chain of command? If Putin (there is no actual red button) calls for a nuclear strike, it will happen. To what extent, who knows. It will happen.

    And here's the thing, the Ukraine war Is going well. NATO is supplying Ukraine, and the mighty Russia can't even fly its jets.

    Cop the fcuk on and let the big boys war. Hopefully they know their limits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    I'm saying that a basic understanding of how a nuclear war will play out would give people a more nuanced understanding of what facing off with an insane dictator with an itchy trigger finger would result in.

    On the one hand we have Russian troops destroying Ukraine, a horrible situation that none of us want to see. On the other there's the guarantee that all of the human species will be wiped out.

    Russia have been struggling in Ukraine, they haven't made the type of progress they want to make, their losses have been considerable and the sanctions that the world has put on Russia are only beginning to bite. War is expensive and taking away a country's ability to maintain an invasion will be the ultimate reason this ends.

    However, we have countless posters here that want a quick fix military intervention from the west (who are incidentally supplying Ukraine with an abundance of weapons essentially doing everything but going in a using them for them).

    The problem is that such an intervention would likely result in a chain of events you don't seem to have a clear understanding of.

    If there was a chance that what you are advocating could work it would have happened already.

    We should all be happy that the people making such decisions know more than a lot of people here do about the risk involved.

    Glazers Out!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,204 ✭✭✭combat14


    talk today of russias end of war criteria:

    - ukraine to cede crimea

    - ukraine to cede both eastern provinces

    - ukraine to not join nato

    - ukraine to not join eu


    no mention of denazification or russia paying compensation for war


    in another development russias new much hearlded encryption system in ukraine appears to be broken (probably by the americans) which must also be a big blow to the russians so soon into the war ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    So the special forces, the militia and the Chechens are all to mount an assault on Kyiv it seems, and of course they now know exactly where Zelensky is (will there be a missile strike on Bankova Street?) - he's defiant and it's a great moral boost, but seriously what was he thinking publicly revealing where he is, unless of course he has since moved, very brutal bloody days ahead for Kiev on both sides:-




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    The way the war is going for Russia, Ukraine should demand the return of Moscow to the Kievan Rus.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    I think the Russian notion of just Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk may be long surpassed and that the conditions would be more like Ukraine to cede Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Russian second strike capability is very significant. NATO send nukes up and hundreds are coming back.

    We won't even be the lucky ones as Ireland probably isn't getting hit directly, we'll just die of starvation afterwards.



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  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The picture for North Africa and the ME gets worse by the hour.

    "Half the world's population gets food as a result of fertilisers... and if that's removed from the field for some crops, [the yield] will drop by 50%," Mr Holsether [boss of Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer companies] said. "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis - it's how large the crisis will be."

    The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, has warned the conflict in Ukraine could send global food prices soaring, with a catastrophic impact on the world's poorest. Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of basic foodstuffs, and the war has already hit crop production, driving up prices. Mr Beasley said it was putting more people at risk of starvation worldwide.

    "Just when you think hell on earth can't get any worse, it does," he said. Russia and Ukraine, once dubbed "the breadbasket of Europe", export about a quarter of the world's wheat and half of its sunflower products, like seeds and oil. Ukraine also sells a lot of corn globally.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    It could be the solution that Claire Daly was demanding on the radio the other day - the EU should sit down and make peace.

    She just repeated that without any indication of how it might happen - like a magic trick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08




  • Registered Users Posts: 762 ✭✭✭starkid


    Russia has second strike capabilities. and likely dead man switches. so in that scenario the three leaders have signed their own death warrants. the deterrence of MAD likely works to stop all attacks. obviously this is testing that theory to the extreme.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    There's a massive fall in the amount of planes in the sky over Russia at the moment now that Aeroflot has discontinued international flights from today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    In their heads maybe but they would never be able to hold it and would lose a lot of troops to an attritional insurgency. Then there's that sanctions problem and their economy will not tolerate them for very long.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 20,330 Mod ✭✭✭✭Weepsie


    Dmitri babich on Al Jazeera has drank the KOOL aid.

    In a nutshell what he saus

    War belongs in 19th century but Ukraines hate for us is from then too. There social media messages are all anti russian and you know what happened in n 2014.


    Then essentially denied the existence of Ukraine as a country



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's really nothing so dramatic yet, that's a future projection by an organisation concerned about such things. We will adapt over time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    I would like to cross reference the countries worse affected with the ones that abstained in the UN. They can ask for aid from Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    All of which assumes the rest of the Russian leadership will allow them to get to a point where he does. So far he's just bluffed. If we ever got to that point, I actually don't think he's really crazy enough to do so, Russia as a military power and as a country would be wiped out. What these last two weeks have suggested, is that nukes aside, they probably couldn't defend it against a real military.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,450 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    An excellent read from the 1980s on what would happen in the event of a nuclear war. I remember reading it when it was serialized in The New Yorker magazine. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fate_of_the_Earth



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,459 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    When it comes to him being prosecuted in court for criminal damage, someone should tell the jury about jury nullification https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_nullification



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Im sure many here have seen those wildlife videos where there are two mega beasts, for example. an anaconda and a crocodile going head to head with each other.

    You think one beast might win, especially where it is giving other is a good beating , but suddenly it’s the other that wins out- especially where an anaconda is in the mix

    With talk of the anaconda plan in some news reports, what do others think? Is a strangle hold on water food and supplies coupled with continued bombardment of Ukrainian troops the final squeeze? Certainly that tweet above looks frightening

    https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-war-putin-pursuing-anaconda-plan-with-force-what-are-his-options-for-ending-the-conflict-12560079



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    Not so dramatic, eh? We can adapt? That's too casual and flippant an approach to the propsect of extra tens of millions facing starvation. Are Ukranians the only humans on the face of the planet? I don't think so.

    Do you think Ukranian farms are operating as normal right now and it'll all be grand? It might be grand in Ireland, but in other places these issues are a matter of life and death.

    E.G. to take just one country... before any of this started, Yemen was facing food shortages and famine.

    Article below from Sept 2021:

    At least 5 million people in Yemen are on the brink of famine and a further 16 million are “marching toward starvation”, as the country’s humanitarian crisis spirals out of control.

    Today Yemen's situation is even worse. I will limit my posts on this topic, but it is by no means a trivial non-European distraction from the main event.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭Nermal


    I think there quite a few possible 'intermediate' nuclear steps.

    Nuclear 'demonstration' over the ocean, some remote area or space.

    In the sky above Ukraine, or eventually on the ground in Ukraine.

    Frightening prospect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 888 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Really hope the guy doesnt get killed, but if he does he'll be the biggest martyr the world has seen in modern times, may even be the catalyst to NATO upping the ante.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Yemen has had huge problems for a very long time, but that doesn't mean the rest of the world will follow them.

    This is a list of fertiliser producers and yes Russia are big but just 13% of fertilisers. Prices have risen and will rise more but we can adapt to that shortfall.


    Wheat production too can be increased and while it may not fully offset the loss of Russia, it will all help.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    As a rank amateur looking in it really does seem like the Russians were confident they could prosecute a large scale invasion force when it's been pretty clear they can't* When they were the Soviet Union they were able to in their Afghan campaign(and IIRC their focus used to be as a very centralised command directing assets), but it seems they've very much dropped the ball on that score, whereas the Americans never really did and learned and improved through their Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns. Lack of cash, or as likely cash going elsewhere(oligarchs half billion quid yachts would buy a lot of training) didn't help.

    Their lack of understanding of local feeling seems to have really failed them. Like you say they didn't go in hell for leather. It looks like they expected a large part of the Unkrainian population to greet them, or at least not fight back. That and they'd have to be mindful of feelings at home considering the deep connections between the two nations and people. They did try to lessen that with propaganda at home since 2014. Where once the official line was Ukrainians are our brothers(far more than any other Russian vassal, save for Belarus), that was tweaked in their official line to the place is full of nazis hurting our Russian Unkrainain brothers. If putin had 'just' annexed the Donbas I suspect he'd have likely got away with it far more, both militarily and polictially at home and abroad. I still can't comprehend his thinking or his generals thinking of going for the whole country.

    Hah. I learned early in my military career that it didn't matter if I was wearing subdued rank, but that leaders spoke with their hands and that that was the giveaway.

    Yeah, apparently it's usually very obvious to observers/snipers who is in command. Generally an older guy with younger around him looking at him. The Finns in WW2 had the tactic of 'shoot the grey hairs'.


    *It's not easy to do. The Germans with their infamous bliztkreig learned on the job and were slapdash and nearly fell on their arses. They won out because their opponents were even more slapdash and did fall on their arses and the Germans nailed rapid transport down early on. When the Germans attacked Greece, British observers and spies reported the rapid movements of German men and materiel along the route and London didn't, couldn't believe them at first. In a German pilot's memoir I have he himself could scarcely believe the speed of moving his squadron from France to Greece, with refueling waypoints set up and when they landed outside Athens the airfield was already up and running, all over the space of a few days.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    With all the talk of the Kremlin running out of cash to fund the war effort, if I was an oligarch, I'd be feeling increasingly nervous that Putin might call me in for a meeting at that mile-long table, and ask me to do my duty to the motherland ("You can either pay or fight!"). Which I'm sure guys who own $30million yachts would have little interest in doing....



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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Stop thinking this is like a Hollywood movie!

    You are the one pontificating and believe you are 100% right in what will happen.

    Your so called research is not backed up by any facts its just a lazy opinion.

    My argument is what's the most likely outcome I didn't come across all gung ho like you saying this will DEFINITELY happen and we're all gonna die argghh!

    You better hurry and start building that bunker.



This discussion has been closed.
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