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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    That's their opening bid. It can safely be discounted as all hagglers know. It won't be their last. If I were to guess the final 'price' will be Crimea and Donbas in Russian hands, Ukraine says no to NATO in the medium term anyway, EU membership still in play. While the offers are on the table for politcal optics and support both the EU and NATO for all sorts of reasons wouldn't be in any actual rush to bring Ukraine in and Russia knows it. It's a paper invitation to a party that's years away. Rightfully too. Before this war Ukraine was one of the most corrupt nations out there with a civil war in the east and was in EU terms an economic basketcase. I know it sounds awful, but I have a feeling this horrible war will be the making of Ukraine in years to come. They've built up huge goodwill worldwide and the sniff of continuing as before with corruption and support of dodgy neo nazis in their ranks could snuff that out pretty quickly. They have to step up and become the country they could and deserve to be for Ukrainians. It could even help Russia too. Russia with her huge resources and people could and should be a prosperous 'European' democracy, but she isn't and I fear that'll be a longer road for them to walk. Putin will have to be a memory and they need to get out from under their self imposed yoke of supporting 'strongmen'. Not easy.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭Denalihighway


    You're confusing respect with fear. If you get thrown in jail for criticising someone, then most people will keep their criticism to themselves. Very often, people confuse respect with fear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    All Ukraine can do is focus on their own situation. They could hardly be expected to give in to the Russians because there might be food shortages or price hikes elsewhere. Egypt, which will be impacted by this, would not let themselves be overrun by the Israelis to prevent the price of rice going up in Thailand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    The problem is that such an intervention would likely result in a chain of events you don't seem to have a clear understanding of

    OK get the first thing there is to step off the podium with the pontificating. It's statements like that I stopped you for as frankly that's little more than big chief know all babble

    You can check but I made no statement regarding any "intervention" or any "chain of events" so in reality there you don't have any grasp of my "understanding"

    This is a discussion and any personal claims of "nuanced understanding" really don't amount to a hill of beans. We can all claim to have more "nuanced understanding" and use it to beat our virtual opponents over the head with. Unfortunately it doesn't work.

    Btw you didn't answer my previous question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    I'm basing my argument on projections made by people who actually understand the dangers of nuclear war.

    Here for instance is a link to a Princeton University study on the subject which produced a simulation of a nuclear war from a couple of years ago ; https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

    I've attached a video of said simulation for you also.

    I'm not basing my argument on lazy opinion but rather fact, you have provided no evidence to support your position on the subject.

    Glazers Out!



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Or there maybe no intermediate steps after a demonstration.

    Some people are saying Russia would be totally wiped out if a Nuclear war. Nah Nah Na Nah Nah... But, sucks to be us too, because nobody survives either the US or Russian being attacked by nuclear weapons, neither would 'go quietly into the night'.

    I don't think there will be a nuclear war, because NATO isn't going to risk Ukraine for the world. Why would they? It's not even shameful, it's common sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    I did answer your question by saying that sanctions will eventually cripple Putins ability to continue his war.

    I can simplify it for you if you wish; we shouldn't give Putin what he wants.

    A couple of posts up I provided a link to a reliable simulation of a nuclear war, it's worth a look.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Putin Is dirt.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,598 ✭✭✭joe316


    Do they really have a gmail account for the embassy??



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,189 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    Only found out he is 5ft7. Little man syndrome?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭technocrat


    I am not the one making wild claims like saying the war would over in '20 hours' and the world destroyed etc.

    You have now just produced some research and the key words in the video are 'could happen' not WILL happen which you seem so certain off.

    Sooner or later we will have to stand up to Putin, its getting closer by the day as more NATO troops move to neighbouring countries like Hungary etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭DontHitTheDitch


    There is ample evidence that Putin does not want to escalate this beyond Ukraine, or get NATO directly involved. He already made his empty threat that countries that interfere with his invasion will face consequences that they have never known in their history. Yet here we are with countries all over Europe openly sending out press releases on what they are sending to help destroy Russian armour and aircraft. They know more about the situation than we are privy to. The sanctions already announced amount to high intensity economic warfare, there's no other way of describing it.

    On top of that, he is actively hiding the scale of the invasion and the losses from the public. He is under more threat from inside Russia at the moment than outside but there has been no martial law announced yet. He has not declared a state of emergency and it seems he has put all his bets on this invasion reaching its goals quickly and decisively.

    There is no basis to argue that we are near the brink of nuclear war as things stand at this moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    It seems that the whole thing was a complete miscalculation by the Russians, on so many fronts (no pun intended). They thought they would be able to quickly decapitate the government and place Lukashenkos brother or some other goon in charge without much resistance. This type of plan will only work if it happens quickly and the population are confused about the whole situation.

    They underestimated the resistance from the Ukrainians, the ability of their own forces and the support that Ukraine would receive from other countries. Most likely situation is that the Russians will need to be offered a face saving way out at some point. It would be best for Ukraine if this is done from a position of strength. I don't think it is possible for Russia to prevail in the conflict.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    While it is an interesting video to watch, it doesny really say much thay we don't already know. You're trying to say that people here have no idea what a nuclear war means, when in fact everyone knows. It's end of days, it doesn't need to be spelled out in some b-movie simulation like we're all 5. It's like saying 'do you really know what will happen if we run out of oxygen?'


    Of course we fuckin know.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08


    If Russia is as corrupt as is said, like with the military spending, let's hope its the same with the nuclear programme.

    If the button is pressed, and the missile goes off, that in reality it's only a shell.




  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    We would be on the brink of nuclear war if western powers directly intervened by doing as some here are proposing namely putting boots in the ground or enforcing a no fly zone.

    As things stand we're relatively safe, but in light of the fact that the economic sanctions are the most potentially fruitful approach to dealing with this situation the notion of sending troops to take on Russia in Ukraine makes no sense whatsoever and doing so will escalate the potential for nuclear conflict.

    Glazers Out!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'd be okay (not that they need my blessing) with Ukraine ceding Crimea (was Russian anyway until a paper exercise giving Crimea to Ukraine while part of the USSR) plus the Donbass region, simply because they are mostly Russian and want it.

    BUT, Russia went about this the wrong way and sanctions should still be imposed. Nobody should benefit from starting a war, and there being no consequences. Russia will feel threatened from this and will spend more money they don't have on the military... it's what broke them the last time, when the USSR fell apart.

    AND, while Russian gets some new land it has to accept that's the end to it and Ukraine can join NATO and aspire to the EU.



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm not arguing that Ukraine shouldn't defend itself. I'm highlighting a bigger picture. The refugees leaving Ukraine now will be a drop in the ocean compared to the waves of people that will have to flee the ME and Africa to Europe if this conflict goes on for months or years. Demographics say that Europe need such an influx to maintain population levels, but a) does Europe need to maintain population levels? and b) it will stretch social and physical infrastructure to its limit. I dont do politics, but it's a very real prospect that we (Ireland) should be planning for.

    It's quite likely that the year 2022 will see more people will die outside Ukraine, from starvation due to food shortages, than will die in it, due to the conflict. Trivializing or minimizing of the effects elsewhere just exposes the shallowness of our cares and concerns. Wasting my time saying this, but such attitudes (not necessarily you in particular Herr Kuehn) also feed the resentment and cynicism toward the West found in some people in the ME, Africa, and beyond.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Here's hoping, but you'd figure that if there's one thing they've really put money into keeping up to date, in good nick, and really made sure was done as correctly as they possibly could, it would have been maintenance of their nuclear deterrent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,694 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    You need to re read the thread. There are people saying nuclear war wouldn't be all that bad. They clearly need to be shown how wrong they are.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Considering that the current net zero ideology which proposes to keep all fossil fuels in the ground will mean that fertilisers (which are made using petrochemicals) won't be around for much longer if the greens get their way

    Currently levels of global food production based heavily on that fertiliser use means that the world actually has a surplus of food. Problems are mainly with localised food supplies with hunger and starvation being as a result of localised corruption, inequality, warfare and local environmental conditions. Of which places like Africa tend to be particularly affected and that's before any wars in other parts of the world.

    This simplefied overview gives a synopsis of some of the existing problems of our global food supply.

    https://www.worldhunger.org/letter-food-shortage-world-questions/



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well, exactly. Millions were in crisis, before all this kicked off, Covid made it worse and the conflict in Ukraine threatens to make it catastrophic. The ripples are already being felt.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sick for kids in Moscow who thought it'd be cool to go college in Vladivostock 🤣



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,823 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The food aspect is how Russia can turn the world on its head.


    It will come right in time, as you say, but replacing the most fertile and productive region in the world will take time.

    The fertilizer story is part of that, it will see food double in price. People seem completely unaware of the inputs price crisis in global agriculture, understandable given that food comes from a shop, not a farm.


    Telling a billion people who depend to a greater or lesser degree that food supply will come right after a few years is not going to fly.


    Look at the little rise that led to the Arab Spring and that was in a good year for grain. This year and probably next will not be good years for grain.

    Just take Egypt alone, 100mn people and most of its food comes from the Ukraine and Russia. It's a massive producer of nitrogen, it's selling it now at a 300% markup.


    There will be significant demand destruction in demand for grain, the staple food of much of the world.



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Telling a billion people who depend to a greater or lesser degree that food supply will come right after a few years is not going to fly.|

    That's what I've been trying to say.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,355 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    They've built up huge goodwill worldwide and the sniff of continuing as before with corruption and support of dodgy neo nazis in their ranks could snuff that out pretty quickly.

    The Azov regiment is an official unit of the Ukrainian army. How does that problem get solved?



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Food has been too cheap in the West and has been commodified to an absolutely ridiculous amount. There'll be profiteering that'll happen, obviously. Talking to my mate in Canada last night, even though they produce huge amounts of oil their petrol prices have jumped (he drove past one place with the intention of filling up on the way home, went up 25c when he was coming back) is just another example of the system being far too fixed and not flexible. Similarly with food. What SHOULD happen (and would have even 30 years ago) would be somewhere like Ireland changes the diet just a little bit, the vast majority of calories consumed in Ireland should come from Ireland and what excess there is can go out. When you consider 30%+ of all food is wasted there really should be enough slack in systems to cover a 10-20% drop in production without prices instantly quadrupling. Alas I think too much work has gone into creating the current system so I don't see it changing.



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  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What do we actually know about Russian 2nd strike capability? Should we halve or more the number of warheads they're meant to have? How many are they meant to have built in the last 30 years? Do we believe they're properly and well-maintained and ready to go?



This discussion has been closed.
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