Is it time to join Nato

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 12:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749919#Comment_118749919

Well, in that circumstance you'll find Ireland signed up to French military interests, and by extension foreign policy doctrine lock stock and two smoking barrells as long as Germany hasn't fully shaken off its pacifism. Because at the moment, they're the only country in the EU with credible stand-alone defence capabilities and will be making up the backbone and muscle of any possible European / EU defence alliance or army. They'll be calling the shots.

Now, I'm not saying that like it's an entirely negative thing, but it's something people would need to reconcile themselves with. Nato is multi-polar with countries other than America with serious defence capacity, (the UK & Turkey for instance).

America pushed out of Europe will seriously weaken the continent's defence. I'll be unequivocal in case anyone is confused: US presence in Europe is essential for the continent's security. They have an extremely good record in Europe in keeping the peace, and as unpalatable as this may seem to many people, I think there's a credible argument to be made their presence since WW2 prevented the continent from pulling itself apart. The history of Europe is the history of land empires taking lumps out of each other with brief periods of peace.

blanch152 · 08-03-2022 12:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118746288#Comment_118746288

What a load of self-serving Russian propaganda you are spouting.

This is just the same as the tired old PIRA excuse, instead of the Brits made us do us, you are letting the Russians away with NATO made us do it. Pathetic.

robinph · 08-03-2022 12:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749901#Comment_118749901

Possibly, if NATO is already distracted elsewhere for the purposes of opening a second front and cutting off the Atlantic.

If as a first move though Russia would have to get in and secure everything on the island (land, sea and air) within hours, no messing about with pretending not to notice NI so as to keep the excuse of not having attacked a NATO nation. If the UK and NATO were not distracted elsewhere there would be nothing to stop UK forces heading across to slap Russia back into the sea.

If NATO is busy with fighting Russia in Eastern Europe then Russia may be able to sneak a few people round to Ireland, but NATO will be closely watching with all the trans Atlantic traffic going over Ireland anyway, and by that point being in NATO or not would make no difference as the war would already be well underway.

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 12:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749988#Comment_118749988

That's a lot of ifs, buts, and maybes. We simply don't know what the future has in store for us and that was just one circumstance I floated.

Our national defence policy is basically "be sound", cross our fingers and hope nobody is a meanie. I don't think that's insurance of any sort given the world we're entering into.

It also needs to be said that Europe's security and wellbeing is our security and wellbeing. We contribute next to nothing towards the security of the continent. In defence and security terms, we're dole scroungers.

robinph · 08-03-2022 12:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750035#Comment_118750035

The point is that there is no reason to invade Ireland as a first move, and once war in Europe has started it really makes no difference if Ireland is part of NATO or not.

Russia have shown that their military leaders are possibly not quite as good as needed to take Ukraine as easily as expected. But they would have to be a whole lot worse again at planning to think invading Europe from Ireland was a good move for them.

Cyber attacks on Ireland are a different matter, but military hardware going through Ireland as a first move is just daft.

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750099#Comment_118750099

First move? Of course. A hostile power won't wake up one morning and decide to threaten Ireland's national defence In a vacuum.

In the frenzy of a widespread war or even in the prelude to one, a malignant actor isn't going to respect our 'be sound' national defence doctrine.

The status quo is that we control nothing, being part of a treaty at least means we have an insurance.

I'm not even advocating an abandonment of our neutrality with this post, I'm just making the obvious point our current orientation leaves us not just a weak link, it leaves us completely at the mercy of any calamitous event. So yes, it would absolutely make a material difference being part of a military alliance should a widespread war break out in Europe.

DeadHand · 08-03-2022 12:46pm

We now have lads theorising unironically about Russia, who are currently making hard work of knocking over a vastly inferior land neighbour, securing enough air and naval supremacy in the North Atlantic to launch a long range, unprecedented amphibious invasion on Ireland (remote, neutral, resource poor, strategically marginal)... while they somehow "distract" the most powerful military alliance in human history elsewhere.

If this is the general level of military knowledge (and common sense) in the country, its a good job we are neutral.

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2022 12:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118749982#Comment_118749982

Whenever you come up with a credible reason as to why Ukraine is not already in NATO, I'm willing to discuss.

IMO they are not in it primarily because it didn't suit America. Prove me wrong by being credible.

PJ2022 · 08-03-2022 12:50pm

Have there been any opinion polls done on whether the Irish public would vote to join NATO? We'd need a referendum anyway so it'd be interesting to see what level support might be at.

robinph · 08-03-2022 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750165#Comment_118750165

Just incase you've taken my theory wrong, it was to point out how daft an attack on Ireland would be.

Freight bandit · 08-03-2022 1:00pm

I can't think of one advantage of it versus being a neutral country.

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 1:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750165#Comment_118750165

Well you've got a crystal ball all of your own apparently that you're relying on. Just two weeks ago you may well have been one of those folks poo pooing the idea of Russia invading anyone.

If a hostile power is engaging with the UK (a keystone NATO member) the war will be right at our doorstep, and your own crystal ball will look rather silly.

What I'm saying is not the stuff of science fiction, but equally I'm not saying there is a high percentage chance.

But, and I think this needs to sink in with you, defence doctrine and planning isn't done on the basis of cross your fingers and hope the worst doesn't come to worst.

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 1:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750219#Comment_118750219

National defence isn't predicated on the possibility of invasion alone.

There are many events short of an invasion that would be devastating to our way of life. If you say you'd want to confront such things with our ass completely hanging out with zero insurance, ok.

The sands are shifting in Europe, and I'll make the point again, Europe's security is our security. That's never been more true than it is now, and if you're making the point our neutrality is some sort of magical shield like in a video game in the case of a worst case scenario war, you're engaging in a level of naiivity that I don't respect.

DeadHand · 08-03-2022 1:13pm

The notion of a naval invasion of Ireland by Russia is not, indeed, the stuff of science fiction, which is often semi plausible and interesting.

It is the stuff of pants on the head, pencils up the nose, drooling absurdity at a Flat Earther or Bill Gates microchips in the vaccine level.

robinph · 08-03-2022 1:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750284#Comment_118750284

What are you suggesting that Ireland needs to defend against?

If it's against the likes of Russia then it's a total waste of time and money as Ireland is so far behind where they would need to be to have any kind of useful defence against a rogue state, and not clear why a rogue state would be interested in Ireland. The money and years it would take to set anything up would make it not worth doing.

If it is defence against cyber attacks, terrorism or similar then its a different matter and should be what Ireland spends spare cash on. Expensive military hardware and training isn't justified.

If a massive oil deposit is suddenly discovered in the middle of Ireland then things might change as there is then a resource that others might be interested in, and also the money to pay for its defence. As it is though Ireland does not have anything that other states would need to waste their time on.

Its not even useful as a way into Europe, unless its the US heading over to "rescue" it. Russia are not going via Ireland, China are not going via Ireland.

If Iceland, Canada, USA or Brazil wanted to invade Europe then maybe they stop in Ireland on the way.

Yurt2 · 08-03-2022 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750355#Comment_118750355

If, in the hypothetical circumstance Russia was running amok in the North Atlantic with naval and air assets. Your be damn glad of Article 5 protection and don't pretend otherwise.

The Kremlin (or a power like it) doesn't see our neutrality as some sort of sacred covenant, we'll be nothing more than a highly strategic windswept rock next to the UK, and depending on the circumstances of the conflict, completely at its mercy.

robinph · 08-03-2022 1:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750372#Comment_118750372

How does the scenario occur where Russia is running amok in the North Atlantic, and NATO isn't already involved in a war with them?

Edit:.... And Ireland is not in a highly strategic position, unless you are the UK in retreat before escape to the US or the US making a base for retaking Europe from. If you are a hostile force against the US and UK then Ireland just makes you easy pickings to be taken out.

bob mcbob · 08-03-2022 1:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750219#Comment_118750219

Have you seen this - it is about Germany taking advantage of Irish offshore wind to produce green hydrogen for German industry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/germany-signals-interest-in-ireland-s-wind-energy-infrastructure-1.4813527

I can just imagine the discussion about this in the German government -

So we are going to have a strategic alignment with Ireland to produce hydrogen from offshore wind farms. What capabilities does Ireland have to defend this strategic German infrastructure?

They have no capability to defend it but everyone likes the Irish so we'll be grand

robinph · 08-03-2022 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750311#Comment_118750311

It would be along the lines of attempting an invasion of Switzerland, by first dropping all your paratroopers into Andorra and hoping that nobody notices as they then hitch a lift across France. :)

markodaly · 08-03-2022 3:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118750449#Comment_118750449

I thought about this the other day.

We know now the importance of having your own energy supply when it comes to international turmoil and war. Ireland is expected to be a Wind Energy superpower of sorts in the next 20 or so years, exporting clean wind energy to the rest of the EU with its inter connecters We are going to have 10's of Billions of energy assets in our waters, an easy target for those with bad intentions.

Does anyone think we can defend this on our own?

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2022 3:36pm

Duffy, trying to keep his finger in the 'broach no criticism of NATO and US-Russia geo political games' dyke as well getting destroyed on his own radio show there. And not a word of support of Putin or Russia spoken.

08-03-2022 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748420#Comment_118748420

Anyway what has NATO do with any of these places?

My point exactly.

political analyst · 08-03-2022 6:06pm

Apparently, Ireland can't join NATO without approval by the electorate in a referendum. But there is no constitutional obstacle to Ireland joining NATO, is there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ireland%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Potential_accession_of_Ireland_to_NATO

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2022 6:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752400#Comment_118752400

Neutrality is government policy and is not a constitutional clause AFAIK

If we were to join an EU alliance we would require a referendum since the Nice Treaty I think.

I doubt a government would be brave enough to end neutrality without a referendum..

jackboy · 08-03-2022 7:12pm

The west absolutely would not allow Russia to invade Ireland, regardless of whether we were in NATO or not. Us being in NATO would achieve nothing.

blanch152 · 08-03-2022 7:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752400#Comment_118752400

Any international change that requires a new sharing of sovereignty requires a referendum - that is why we have EU referenda on new treaties.

So, yes, there is no constitutional bar to neutrality, but sharing defence sovereignty would require a constitutional amendment. Associate membership of NATO without the Article 5 commitment might be ok without a referendum, but that is one for those more familiar with the details of the NATO Treaty to argue about. Might read up on it myself later.

political analyst · 08-03-2022 8:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752736#Comment_118752736

I agree. Britain and America would automatically regard the presence of Russian troops in Ireland as a threat to NATO.

FrancieBrady · 08-03-2022 8:55pm

Funny seeing this after the show which I mentioned earlier.

https://twitter.com/thelittlegreen6/status/1501250504403439616

Gatling · 08-03-2022 9:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118753231#Comment_118753231

But if WW3 kicks off properly they might not have the forces to defend US ,they wouldn't be flying jets from Germany to cover us 24/7 , hence why we need the ability to defend our own shores and skies.

Just using Russia as an example they could easily land men and boats anywhere along the west coast and drive into Dublin several hours later , we've don't have the ability to stop them or anyone else , once they land it will be very difficult to remove a foreign military force

political analyst · 08-03-2022 9:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118752456#Comment_118752456

A number of days ago, in the Indo, John Downing wrote that NATO's willingness to use nuclear weapons in extremis is a reason for opposition in this country to joining the alliance. Obviously, the issue of Northern Ireland is not in the equation anymore - it was the reason Ireland refused to join NATO during the Cold War.

Is it time to join Nato

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