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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The problems for Russia don't stop at 5%. Their mobilisation and logistics strategies were and are based on defending Russia, not prosecuting wars beyond their borders(unlike the USA). They rely on Russia's huge rail network which the state owns to move men and material(this is very old style, Germany did similar in WW2). Which is fine, even very effective within Russia or vassal states like Belarus, but they run into major supply problems beyond that network, as we've seen in Ukraine. That's why they have that huge road convoy seemingly stuck and very vulnerable and why we've seen looting by Russian troops and vehicles waiting for fuel(the humble jerrycan was one of the most important 'weapons' in WW2). Firepower win battles, supply lines win wars. They have the former, but they can't effectively get it to the front because of a lack of the latter.

    And when they get into the cities proper it could be one helluva slog if the defenders are dug in and highly motivated. Consider the fall of Berlin in 1945. The city was a flattened wreck, the Germans were a spent force of around forty odd thousand, with about the same in kids and elderly and police etc making up the defence, facing over two million Soviets encircling the city with artillery, tanks and complete control of the air. It took them two weeks to take it and if Hitler hadn't done the decent thing and put a bullet in his head and the Germans hadn't surrendered it might have lasted another week until the bitter end. I hope it doesn't come to this and some sort of peace is agreed upon, but the defenders of Kyiv could make it a hell on earth for the invading Russians.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,352 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Holding back force, I said. They could pound absolutely everything that they come across, and not to minimise the devastation they've caused, they haven't flattened any city - yet. Although I do fear they will.

    The Russian army numbers over a million men of which maybe 15-20% has been deployed for this conflict. It could double it's deployed force without leaving gaps elsewhere but it hasn't. They are not at the stage of throwing the kitchen sink at this yet. The Russian army is nowhere near as strong as many feared it was, but it's not as incompetent and terrible as many are trying to paint it either.

    While the operation so far has had major failures, the facts remain that overall the Russians are holding the gains in territory, they are amassing yet unused force and encircling Ukrainian positions. I just cannot see them being pushed out any time soon.



  • Posts: 1,263 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It has decided to travel East, it seems. And Russia for all its resources would always be beholden to someone, somewhere if it wants to have any international trade & relations at all.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Greenwald was right once and people seem to believe this means he is infallible.

    The reality is he is either 1. in the pocket of Putin or some associate, 2. in the process of going full Gemma, or 3. Both



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,986 ✭✭✭rogber


    I agree with you but I fear a rolling back of the more extreme sanctions will be part of any compromise deal. If the West has to choose between principles and the economy in the long term, it will as always choose the economy. It's already doing so with oil.

    But if that saves the prolongation of all the suffering then maybe it's the lesser of two evils



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    I’ve watched half it so far and it’s fascinating and depressing at the same time.

    A very good question posed, if Ukraine continues to repel the attack what exactly do people think is going to happen? Do they think Putin will just hold his hands up and walk away?

    He could end up pummelling Ukraine Into the ground with more destructive weapons if things aren’t going Russias way, is that good for Ukraine?. It’s all good and well the west cheering on and arming the Ukrainians but it’s their country and people who are the victims in all this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The Russian military is huge in comparison to Ukraine (in terms of armor, vehicles, aircraft, equipment)

    Keep in mind the 5% is a bit of an old figure, current estimates are that it's about 8% to 10% of Russian equipment destroyed/inoperable of those forces designated for this war.

    Looking at this in terms of e.g. tanks, the Russian military's total is believed to be approx 2,800. There is visual evidence that a minimum of 150 of these are destroyed/captured in Ukraine. That's more than 5% of Russia's entire total of tanks, in 2 weeks.

    Also keep in mind that the Ukrainians are fighting in home territory, the Russians are fighting in another country, they are taking heavy attrition from this, tyres on vehicles are falling to pieces, there are a lot of breakdowns, 150,000+ Russian soldiers require 3 square meals a day in foreign territory, each mobile piece of armor requires fuel and repairs, and all these supply lines are vulnerable to Ukrainian infantry who, combined with reservists, grossly outnumber the Russians in terms of manpower. Add to that their much higher morale and resolve to fight and a vast amount of anti-armor and anti-air infantry weapons flooding into the country

    Russia's air-force is massively larger than Ukraine's, but they don't have air superiority, in fact, much of Ukraine's air force is intact.

    Of course, something dramatic could happen in the next 2 weeks, some shocking tactic, a strike on Zelensky, a dramatically successful move on Kyiv - but barring all that, from what I am reading, the Russians (at current pace) aren't expected to make much progress. Some are speculating that as time goes on, the Ukrainians could even start making progress.

    Of course I could be completely wrong here, but that's how I am reading it at present.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,276 ✭✭✭Ninthlife


    Probably already posted but with this and Palm Oil exports being reduced there will be a sharp increase/shortage on products. Ireland imports 60% of its grain.

    May be some hard times ahead



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It shouldn't be - offered does not imply coercion and we are winding down our programme.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭Field east


    Would I be right in saying that under the USSR ideology that the vast majority of the working population get paid a wage from the profits of the state farms or equivalent that they work on . The ‘government’ , I assume ,takes its cut beforehand and ‘senior management get well paid for their ‘Trojan work they have . So the workers would be price takers and the rest would be price makers. Unions were not allowed

    If the above was the case then the oligarchs were alive and well under the USSR system . So Putin and the current oligarchs should not see any change if Putins wish comes true



  • Registered Users Posts: 578 ✭✭✭VillageIdiot71


    Nothing is being thought through at the minute. It's as if there some kind of post-pandemic mental trauma obstructing clear thought.

    I mean, what do we make of this nonsense? Be bonkers enough, and you'll get covered by a major news outlet.

    The makers of Call of Duty have a lot to answer for.



  • Registered Users Posts: 346 ✭✭redt0m


    Excuse my ignorance, but can someone educate me a bit please - why are all the empty green fields I see not normally full of wheat and grains and stuff like that? In other words, why does Ireland *need* to import 60% of its grain?



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sanctions will really cripple Russia and they can't hold a country of that size. His demands such as they are include the two new Dunbass regions and neutrality from Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,440 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, he pretty much glossed over Ukrainians, living in a free and independent Country having any say in their future ....it was all about Russia and its "Rights". Which is a bit ironic when you think about the level of "Rights" they give not only to other Country's, but to their own citizens.

    Post edited by Beasty on


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Estimates there are 20,000 foreigners traveling to Ukraine to fight (and assist), the real figure could be even higher

    Some are total idiots (I saw one in a news interview getting his application rejected), and some seem to be highly experienced (e.g. another interview was with a military paramedic with 10 years of war experience going to assist)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    IIRC Ireland is great growing country, but not for wheat, not warm enough in the summer? So it's crap for making bread and stuff like that.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so




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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Indeed, am not a farmer, but if there's a shortage and the price of grain goes up I would expect many to start planting grain right?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,309 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,150 ✭✭✭Talisman




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Perhaps the decision was a commercial one in that they feared people would buy so few tickets the event would lose them money.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Here, I can understand you liking my post so much, you had to quote it five times, but it's totally unnecessary.

    Anyway, joking aside, yeah this is what I don't understand from commentators who are asking for a balanced view on things. I'm open to hear about what NATO/EU/the west in general are doing to pull Ukraine away from Russia's sphere of influence, but if you ignore what Russia are doing, or what Russia is, and how that is pushing Ukraine away.

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/page/72

    The last part of Putin's open letter from last Summer sums up his own position - Russia and Ukraine are spiritually one. They are brothers. But riven apart due to western meddling. I don't think he's for turning on that point.

    This is what is actually happening. First of all, we are facing the creation of a climate of fear in Ukrainian society, aggressive rhetoric, indulging neo-Nazis and militarising the country. Along with that we are witnessing not just complete dependence but direct external control, including the supervision of the Ukrainian authorities, security services and armed forces by foreign advisers, military ”development“ of the territory of Ukraine and deployment of NATO infrastructure. It is no coincidence that the aforementioned flagrant law on ”indigenous peoples“ was adopted under the cover of large-scale NATO exercises in Ukraine.

    This is also a disguise for the takeover of the rest of the Ukrainian economy and the exploitation of its natural resources. The sale of agricultural land is not far off, and it is obvious who will buy it up. From time to time, Ukraine is indeed given financial resources and loans, but under their own conditions and pursuing their own interests, with preferences and benefits for Western companies. By the way, who will pay these debts back? Apparently, it is assumed that this will have to be done not only by today's generation of Ukrainians but also by their children, grandchildren and probably great-grandchildren.

    The Western authors of the anti-Russia project set up the Ukrainian political system in such a way that presidents, members of parliament and ministers would change but the attitude of separation from and enmity with Russia would remain. Reaching peace was the main election slogan of the incumbent president. He came to power with this. The promises turned out to be lies. Nothing has changed. And in some ways the situation in Ukraine and around Donbas has even degenerated.

    In the anti-Russia project, there is no place either for a sovereign Ukraine or for the political forces that are trying to defend its real independence. Those who talk about reconciliation in Ukrainian society, about dialogue, about finding a way out of the current impasse are labelled as ”pro-Russian“ agents.

    Again, for many people in Ukraine, the anti-Russia project is simply unacceptable. And there are millions of such people. But they are not allowed to raise their heads. They have had their legal opportunity to defend their point of view in fact taken away from them. They are intimidated, driven underground. Not only are they persecuted for their convictions, for the spoken word, for the open expression of their position, but they are also killed. Murderers, as a rule, go unpunished.

    Today, the ”right“ patriot of Ukraine is only the one who hates Russia. Moreover, the entire Ukrainian statehood, as we understand it, is proposed to be further built exclusively on this idea. Hate and anger, as world history has repeatedly proved this, are a very shaky foundation for sovereignty, fraught with many serious risks and dire consequences.

    All the subterfuges associated with the anti-Russia project are clear to us. And we will never allow our historical territories and people close to us living there to be used against Russia. And to those who will undertake such an attempt, I would like to say that this way they will destroy their own country.

    The incumbent authorities in Ukraine like to refer to Western experience, seeing it as a model to follow. Just have a look at how Austria and Germany, the USA and Canada live next to each other. Close in ethnic composition, culture, in fact sharing one language, they remain sovereign states with their own interests, with their own foreign policy. But this does not prevent them from the closest integration or allied relations. They have very conditional, transparent borders. And when crossing them the citizens feel at home. They create families, study, work, do business. Incidentally, so do millions of those born in Ukraine who now live in Russia. We see them as our own close people.

    Russia is open to dialogue with Ukraine and ready to discuss the most complex issues. But it is important for us to understand that our partner is defending its national interests but not serving someone else's, and is not a tool in someone else's hands to fight against us.

    We respect the Ukrainian language and traditions. We respect Ukrainians' desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous.

    I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.

    Today, these words may be perceived by some people with hostility. They can be interpreted in many possible ways. Yet, many people will hear me. And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be ”anti-Ukraine“. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    which hotels around west Dublin will the new refugees be forced to endure?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Interesting analysis here from a retired General




  • Registered Users Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet


    Nonsense. This is bordering on bigotry in my opinion. This war, as ugly as it is, does not define Russians.

    Hypothetically if the world took the side of the British during the 'troubles' and decided that the Irish state was complicit in atrocities....would you think it's justified that Seamus the fiddler banned from a gig in Sweden because of his government's decisions?

    Ostracising Russian citizens is not a way to win hearts and minds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Well I guess their murder was justified if they were anything under 50. Great point, as usual.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,574 ✭✭✭MacDanger


    The climate in many parts of the country isn't warm/dry enough and the soil isn't suitable in some other parts.

    In areas which would be suitable, my understanding is that foreign imports are cheaper so it wasn't a viable business; I'm sure other who are more involved in the tillage side of things might be able to explain in better detail



This discussion has been closed.
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