Russia - threadbanned users in OP

That footage was indeed powerful. Personally when I saw the video and later the image of the family wiped out by Russian shelling I had a similar reaction.

The problem of course is that for Ukraine and Ukrainians the risk versus reward is fairly clearly in favour of getting NATO and the wider world militarily involved: their country's infrastructure is being eroded day by day and soon enough even if Russia fully withdraws fully they're looking at years of rebuilding to just try and get back to where they were.

However for just about every other nation on the planet the risk versus reward is much starker: they're being asked to choose courses of action which will put their military, their civilians, their territories directly in the firing line of a nuclear superpower. And this is ignoring the severe economic consequences which would inevitably follow.

I don't envy the people charged with making these decisions that's for sure.

I find it very childish and immature to accuse me of swallowing propaganda or pushing their case.

I think Putin is a barbarian and i wish him gone one way or another, but until when that moment comes, he's a reality that should be dealt with with caution.

see this is exactly why people like you should not be in charge running a country.

But Fine, i'll bite:

You're turning your backyard into a zoo and your neighbour is spooked by lions

You're sheltering 500 cats into your backyard and your neighbour is allergic to cats

the idea is that whatever you're doing in your backyard is affecting your neighbour.

my personal opinion, is that the russian concern goes far beyond a military threat from a neighbouring country

the russians cannot tolerate a western influenced prosperous democracy so close to moscow that they're going to risk large exodus into it from their already declining population as well as risking certain groups getting ideas replicating the 'successful Ukrainian model' and starting looking to secede from the multi ethnic Russian federation.

It is very important to understand the russian concern and point of view before laying down judgments.

If you look into Russia's not so far history,

Russia was rejected a NATO membership when they showed willingness to join

Russia was rejected EU membership when they showed interest in joining

we made sure to let them know that they're rejects. leading us to our current geopolitical position and the fight over Ukraine.

They've no way though of imposing a 'selective' ban on Russian artists and athletes though, it simply won't work. Many of the sportspeople across all sports and cultural artists etc that have already been banned may well be anti-Putin, but there's really no good way of separating them out.

Well I don't think that things are black and white. I just think it's contrarian edgelord-ism at worst and fanciful at best for Mr Mearsheimer to simply start the timeline for the attribution of blame at the beginning of any discussion about Ukraine potentially joining NATO and just wholesale ignore the entire expanse of historical development that precedes all that (not to mention Ukrainian self-determination). The US/NATO/West bears some responsibility for its strategy in dealing with Ukraine which has contributed to raising the temperature and Western diplomacy has failed Ukraine. But attributing all of this at the foot of the West isn't only incorrect, it is also an insult to the independent intellect of the Ukrainian people as well as being the most almighty whitewash imaginable of Russian aggression, nigh-imperialism and the fact that Russia is the one slaughtering Ukrainians at this very moment.

You see it as all being "US foreign policy" but it's just as much a question of Russian foreign policy and of course Ukrainian internal affairs. The Russians have been trying to sneakily play the puppet strings and massage tension and conflict in Ukraine just as the West has tried to pull the strings too. But the difference is that the sovereign will of Ukraine has drifted in favour of the West. Their democratic will is to break free from the Russian sphere of influence and to embrace enhanced co-operation with the West. Sure, the West has tried to shepherd them there and has played its own games, but the Ukrainians have brains of their own and know what they want -- and what they want is not to be Putin's serf. They opted to embrace the West not because Joe Biden ordered the infiltration of Ukrainian media with hypnotic subliminal NATO messaging -- but because they deem it that the Western system offers something better while the Russian system relies on little more than "stay in the fold, or else".

Let me correct the analogy - imho

You're turning your backyard into a zoo and your neighbour is spooked by lions - REALITY - You are doing up your back garden, and yes you have some pets. Your neighbor Exaggerates this. Tells the neighborhood that you are turning your garden into a Zoo.

You're sheltering 500 cats cats into your backyard and your neighbour is allergic to cats - Your neighbor claims, without any proof, that they are allergic to cats. Claims these cats are a 'clear and present danger to he, and his 'family' - when one of his family interject that, actually they quite like cats (wouldnt mind having a few, and point out that at one stage, we too had cats) - the family member vanishes from sight - when seen again they are bruised, showing signs of scars, and remaining silent. Neighborhood makes clear they dont believe a word of this.

the idea is that whatever you're doing in your backyard is affecting your neighbour. Neghborhood disagrees and tells you to calm down and sober up

and continuing the analogy

You awake to find that your neighbor has set your house on fire - is claiming that it is not your house, it is in fact HIS. Tells the neighborhood he will shoot anyone that tried to help you. He will only allow your family to escape into HIS back garden. Where your family members will be 'cared for' - Makes clear that he means you no harm. You are just confused. and while he is

• torching your car,
• barricading your gates,
• attempting to cut your phone lines
• And threatening other neighbors who are supplying you with water to put out the fire

He tells you ALL OF THIS WILL END, if you do EXACTLY what he says - indefinitely

The only thing keeping Russia relevant are the nukes.

Their military is falling behind as evidenced over the last couple of weeks and they must definitely no longer have the reach they once had where they could afford to back numerous regimes around the world e.g see Cuba.

Yes they are a relevant producer of resources particularly oil and gas, but so are loads of states in say the Middle East.

To a degree they are like the ottoman Empire in early 20th century, of course with lots of nukes.

China has replaced them in terms of influence around the world.

The Russians I think wisely decided to start concentrating on the cyber world as it was one of the only ways they could afford to influence events around the world.

And I believe the really stupid thing is the West gave and continue to give the Chinese a massive economic leg up which they can then use to wield power around the world.

The only ones stupid enough to give the Soviets a leg up were the Brits who basically gifted them their jet technology.

The most ridiculous aspect which I don't see mentioned much is that he finished 3rd and was standing directly beside an actual Ukrainian who came 1st and didn't feel the need to wear any symbols or make any political statements even while his country was being invaded.

Not to mention the fact the little scumbag wasn't even technically there representing his country because his country is currently banned from competing due to endemic doping. You almost couldn't make this crap up.

I really appreciate the effort

but i'm not really planning to dwell on this.

the point i'm trying to make is that Russia since 2008 made it unequivocally clear that US meddling in Ukraine is recipe for disaster and we walked right into it.

--

this does not mean that the Russians are not being barbarians in Ukraine

this does not mean that the Russians are not committing warcrimes in Ukraine

this is does not mean that Putin does not deserve to be put on trial and be locked for a lifetime over what he's doing in Ukraine

But at the same time this does not mean that the west and the US in particular did not play a role in this.

I'm not debating if Russia has the right to do what they're doing, because of course they don't even if they have the power to get away with it.

But at the same time, i'd wish if our policy makers can be a little smarter in the future.

that's all. :)

Indeed, some people seem to be portraying this as a food shortage apocalypse. I'm not downplaying the serious-ness of it but I presume wheat-growing countries can increase supply somewhat. Russia hasn't claimed it will suddenly stop exporting all it's grain, Ukraine is still exporting (via train). Could fertilizer and grain supplies be affected? Yes. But our current supply system is not set in stone, there is some flexibility there. Likewise we just had a pandemic where the world shut down for a month in 2020, and things kept going, we are adaptable.

The notion they've got One Million troops available at any time is unadulterated waffle. It it's evidently the case they can only get close to that number by picking young and old men up off the streets and throwing them into battle in 1970s uniforms.

massive bounce in the stock markets today in anticipation of peace talks tomorrow in Turkey, Im pretty sure the Russians are not ready to quit yet though, this rally will be short lived

Seriously, you don't see a problem? That someone in Scotland would drop everything, and get himself to Ukraine because he's watched a lot of news recently?

Where to even start?

I'd start at the bit where he has military trainig. According to the Ukraine government, after watching a bit of news, 20,000 people have gone to Ukraine to join the fight.