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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,948 ✭✭✭circadian




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,160 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    You are just rambling now.

    You said "It's entirely possible - and actually, quite reasonable - that Putin has decided that a "tactical" nuclear strike against Ukraine would be warranted, perhaps with a small missile, perhaps targeting Kiev."

    Tell me more about this quaint little tactical nuke and what impact it would have.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,668 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    "People" might have said he wouldn't do it...but most of the intelligence said he would. The US indicated it would happen pretty well before it did.

    He might have thought he could roll over into Europe...but either way Ukraine have stopped that for now imo...be clearly didn't expect the resistance and the fact other countries would rally when it came to supplies military and otherwise



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    And it goes back to what Winston Churchill said, that the idea of "MAD" is worthless in the context of "a Madman" having the power to deploy these kinds of weapons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @wylo

    This invasion was not a moment of madness, there was a build up, a long one, in hindsight it looks like this was being planned for 2 years. It has gone horrible for him, he probably thought it would be at worst a slightly tougher version of Crimea.

    "I'll invade an entire country - a large European country at that, right on the edge of the EU, with aspirations to join the EU and NATO.... and that'll be... kind of fine?" - Vova

    I have a hard time believing he thought in a million years that he could invade Ukraine without massive international blowback. If he really did think that then he is either delusional or would want to sack his advisors forthwith.

    It would have to be the most spectacular military intelligence failure of the 21st century to think that going into the whole of Ukraine wouldn't be anything more than a tougher version of Crimea. All they'd have to do would be to watch Ukrainian TV and check Ukrainian twitter to get a sense that there wasn't an overwhelming pro-Russian feeling in the country. And they'd surely have people reporting from inside the country to get a feel of what the mood is on the ground. And they wouldn't have been particularly unaware that Ukraine was building its military. There's no intelligence Russia could have been gathering which would suggest that Ukraine would be 'easy'.

    And what's more insane is the timing. I find that one really bizarre. The time to go into Ukraine would surely have been in 2018 or 2019 around the time Zelenskyy rose to power and cut that off for a start, and, very, very crucially, Trump was still POTUS, which would have been a better bet of a fragmented response from the West. Weird to wait until a pretty normal U.S. president was back in office, following a fairly orthodox anti-Russia line.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The concern I have is that I’m seeing is he’s in an unwinable war and has relatively poor conventional weapons and an army that isn’t living up to its reputation.

    He’s behaving like a psychopath, so I would think a “shock and awe” attack isn’t inconceivable nor is it something that military strategists would consider unusual.

    I’m still not really seeing where the off ramp is though. Russia doesn’t seem to be likely to back down. They are destroying themselves in this but they’re just ploughing on anyway.

    We also need to make it clear to the Russian people (not the Russian government) that there is an off ramp and a way back. I am concerned about a nothing to lose, fatalistic type end to this that will result in cult like support for Putin.

    They need to know what is being done in their name. So cutting through the domestic propaganda is absolutely vital.

    I honestly can’t see Putin being able to maintain a North Korean style country in Russia. He’s become a Russian domestic institution and holds huge power but it’s way too complicated and expectations are far too high for him to continue this for all that much longer. There’ll come a point …



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,468 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly



    All we need now is for them to run out of vodka and we have them where we need them



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Didn't I already explain the twin benefits for Russia?

    Putin can, a la Hitler, claim that economic sanctions are the reason why the Russian economy are suffering. Why wouldn't he? It would eat into his claim that the "real problem" for Russia is the West and the EU. Of course he'd say this kind of nonsense.

    At the same time, Putin is falling behind in Ukraine. What better way to combat both problems to deploy a small, tactical nuclear warhead (as stated by Russia as eligible in a "conventional" war) to subjugate Ukraine; to "escalate to de-escalate"; and to show the West that Russia is very serious about using these kinds of warhead to achieve its political ambitions.

    You can call this "rambling" all you wish.

    But the clear trajectory of travel is precisely what we are seeing, as much as I'd prefer to be wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,668 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Well it's the last place anyone would be looking for him :)

    I can't see the US sending in an elite squad of killer drag queens.



  • Registered Users Posts: 665 ✭✭✭goldenmick


    Putin is such a unique love child. We should have seen this coming.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,196 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Is there anyone in the Kremlin who would do the world a favour and arrange an "accident" for Putin?



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,668 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Let's hope he ends up the same way as either of those two @rseholes.

    Captured hiding down a hole with a mars bar (probably the last one in Russia if they pull out too) would be fun.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,160 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Tell me more about this quaint little tactical nuke and what impact it would have on the target.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    If Putin thinks he losing he may well decide to use a tactical nuclear strike and then blame Ukrainian insurgents under the thumb of NATO powers. And likley most people in Russia will believe it. The Chinese, Indians and others will sit on the fence enough to give his lies some validity.

    As long as he casts doubt that it was not Russia but the Ukranians, he'll buy himself time. Same as if there are accidents or attacks caused deliberately by his claims of "insurgents" with radiation containment at either of the nuclear power plants currently held by Russian forces.

    You only have to look at the absolutely crazy claims he has already made about Ukraine govermeny being Nazis or biological weapons to understand his means of achieving victory by any and all means.

    Don't underestimate Putin or what he may do.

    Post edited by Mecanudo on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭victor8600


    Not before it becomes clear to the population that Russia is losing the war.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Which isn't a reality anyway, as according to polls, upwards of 70pc of the Russian people have been effectively brainwashed into supporting this disgusting war against Ukraine.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    With respect, I just have.

    You are assuming that Putin is a rational actor. I do not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 842 ✭✭✭Hego Damask


    War crimes.

    That hospital attack, despicable ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,668 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Ah here if you believe that 70 percent figure I have some magic beans I could sell you. When the Russian soldier deaths pile up and the economic sanctions kick in let's see.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,986 ✭✭✭rogber


    On this I agree with you. At this stage Putin seems hellbent on a personal mission and I don't think he gives a damn what the Russian population think anymore. That's what makes him potentially extremely unpredictable



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Putin is obviously no longer a rational actor, the Russian playbook is escalate to deescalate , hence his use of Thermobaric weapons when normal conventional weapons were not having the desired effect, now atrocity after atrocity in order to soften the world for whats coming, the ultimate sacrifice of Ukraine, millions will die and the west might step up then, unfortunately too late!

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The very link you cite as evidence says the following:

    But even if that's true in government-backed polls, it's still likely a majority of Russians support the war. And Dmitry believes tough sanctions on Russia may only increase that support.



  • Registered Users Posts: 842 ✭✭✭Hego Damask


    interesting discussion, starts around 10min in ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,397 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well, history would tell a different story in relation to the willingness for Russia to send it's own people to a meat grinder. About 3% of the entire global population was killed in WW-II. One-third of those were Russian.

    They eventually ground down the Germans by just sending more and more out to face them and broke their backs with pure numbers rather than anything else.

    There are plenty of people close to Putin who, if he goes, their lives are over anyway.

    If they had concern for their fellow Russians, they wouldn't have taken a decision to leave them in the situation they are now in. We are all going to be a lot worse off for at least the foreseeable future based on those tanks rolling across the border. Russians even more so.


    If those top fellas are in their bunkers with their families, they might very well push that button and let their own die for their cause. Maybe not likely but definitely not impossible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,799 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    Surely if he is escalating to de escalate he would take credit for the nuke if he's planning on using it?

    Why would he say the Ukrainians nuked themselves, what the next logical step after that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,668 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    That is just one opinion, I don't believe the 70 percent figure personally, let's see where it is in a few weeks.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So what's your view?

    When we cite the 70pc evidence, you say only a fool could believe that.

    Now the evidence bar (from the very source you cite) suggests more than 50pc of people support the war.

    You're all over the place, aren't you? You haven't a clue what to believe.

    The reality is clear and obvious: that most Russians either support or approve of the Ukraine invasion. Stop with the pretense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,276 ✭✭✭Ninthlife


    I watched this years ago and rewatched it tonight.


    For all those who say its worth a gamble calling Putins bluff on using Nukes as its worth the chance they should give it a watch.

    Pretty harrowing



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's looking that Way , closet neighbor who happened to be in Americas goods books ,they could leverage the idea of putting a few batteries of Interceptor back on the table that Obama didn't want to go through with ,



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,150 ✭✭✭Talisman


    I think that there's a greater degree of desperation in the messaging from Russia in the last number of days - they have uncovered three 'threats' in the last 24 hours alone.

    • Nazis inviting jihadis from Syria
    • Nazis sabotaging nuclear power plants
    • U.S. biological (weapon) labs on the border
    • U.S. sponsored plans to invade Russia in March 2022 discovered
    • Potential false-flag chemical attack

    There's no chance of a repeat of the MH17 incident, so what remains?



This discussion has been closed.
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