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Is it time to join Nato

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,739 ✭✭✭johnmcdnl


    So even with this caveat Ireland will still spend much less than everyone else in Europe, but should we be using % of GDP as a metric for Ireland? It's a well known fact that GDP doesn't reflect the state of the Irish economy so we use metrics like GNI*.

    For 2017 like in your table, that would mean a GNI* of 199BN vs 338.5bn GDP, would would equate to around 0.5% of GNI* spent on defence. Still toward the bottom sure, but it seems a fairer number to use as a baseline.



  • Registered Users Posts: 267 ✭✭Irish_wolf


    "Balkans and Afghanistan? Let her rip. Those two interventions were essential"

    I don't disagree. Really I don't. But these were bloody conflicts with death and destruction on all sides and by officially joining NATO instead of maintaining our position as it is would immediately put us firmly on the NATO side in regards to any of these countries. We would lose our ability to act as peace keepers in these regions and in any regions ravaged by their former colonisers in NATO.

    The link below is where we currently stand. I think we should strengthen our stance within this partnership, as a neutral country we are in a great position to play peace maker and help other countries achieve what we have achieved with the UK as a former oppressor now ally for example.




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,700 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You are reminding me of good old Slim Pickens in Dr Strangelove

    😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Irish_wolf utter nonsense ,

    The Balkans and Afghanistan ,

    Why did Nato go into Afghanistan , actually remind us who bombed Afghanistan back to the Stoneage ,it wasn't nato or America ,

    And the Balkans they just randomly decided to get involved for no reason 🤣



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    The case to join in the 1950s would have been stronger as if nothing else would have resulted in a bunch of US money as they built up air base and other monitoring systems.


    Now there wouldn't be any need for the US to have a base in Ireland.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Because we are up to our ears in debt already. We owe so much that we barely maintain paying interest and with recent debt financed covid splurge even our kids will be paying what we owe right now.

    Why on earth would anyone think that getting 3-5 jets will make any difference other than putting us deeper in the hole?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But yet we have 400 bn economy (open to correction)

    All we are seeing is amateur hour excuses as to why we shouldn't increase defense spending , because ,ehhh because,nato bad ,we might have to send soldiers to war , but people expect other countries will send their soldiers to fight a war in our country .



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    That average is bumped up significantly by countries with Russian borders though.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Whatever about NATO membership I think we probably could do spending more on our own independent defence.

    Things like lack of primary radar, poor army pay and retention, lack of adequate patrol ships and simple coastal defences is borderline negligence at this stage.

    We’re not talking major militarisation but the policies we have at the moment are like deciding to not install locks on the doors of your house, leaving the key in the hall door or refusing to lock your car because it might “send bad vibes” and “sure nobody would break in.”

    I think we were left in a very odd position during those Russian missile exercises and it should drive home we aren’t strategically irrelevant.

    Even just how we treat the military here in terms of pay and conditions is pretty shoddy stuff and we aren’t retaining personnel as a result.

    There’s no reason we should have a small, high tech, very capable defence force that’s a decent place to work. That’s the minimum we should be aiming for.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    You operate on hypothetical nonsense. What imaginary war in our country are we expecting other people to fight? Closest and most probable would be alien invasion of some body snatchers. If that will be the case your dreamed couple jets will not help us anyway.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Dev kept the Rep out of WW2 because he did not like the Brits and had a bee in his bonnet over the USA for not backing him more when he went to them. He was been selfish and thinking of himself, not Ireland. If the Republic got involved with WW2 on the allied side things would be better these days and Ireland would have developed much faster instead of our snails pace up until the 90s.

    NATO is a certain reality for Republic now, no matter what the pacifists wish to say.

    Dan.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    My reading of it is Irish neutrality was very much about the British relationship and it’s understandable given the time.

    I mean if you look at where Ireland was pre WWII. We had only gained independence in 1922. There was a rather serious retaliatory trade war which ran right up into 1938 and the attitudes towards the U.K. and Anglo Irish relations were at a very low point.

    We had only been independent for 17 years in 1939 and the priority of the state was to maintain that. I mean think of it from perspective of today. It was only as far back as 2005 is from where we are standing.

    The memories of the 1910s and 20s were raw. There was a justifiable fear the U.K. might have just concluded Ireland was a strategic risk and taken us back over again.

    Our views also softened as the war progressed and as the Americans came on board and the German atrocities became clear.

    WWII was a watershed in Europe and the impact was profound and transformational. It was also the end of imperial Britain and what emerged as post war Britain was far more relatable to Ireland than what had gone before. It was more egalitarian, more open minded and everything was beginning to change. The whole continental European outlook was totally different too - gone were the arrogant empires and what emerged was a continent of small and medium outward looking countries determined never to allow that to happen again and the beginning of the European institutions which we were able to plug into by the 1970s.

    I think Irish neutrality morphed from being a pragmatic thing about preserving a fragile independence into what has become a bit of a mantra and a philosophical point of view that is perhaps on far shakier ground that we sometimes project it to be.

    It’s a bit lazy to see the 1930s as if they’re the 2020s though. Ireland and Britain weren’t the same countries that they are today in many respects and the relationship was immediately post conflict.

    You can’t really be neutral in a situation like Ukraine and we absolutely aren’t. Ireland has very much been on the EU side, to the point that the Russians have labelled us an “unfriendly nation” and that isn’t a negative. There’s absolutely no way we could take a fence sitting position on this and we have not done so.

    It seems our neutrality is more about being passive / non militaristic but sometimes it does seem a bit like NIMBYism too. We have developed a notion that we are irrelevant in any strategic sense and that everyone loves us and will come to our rescue in a crisis. It’s not a theory I would like to test and I think the Russians being off the coast, as low risk as that was, did send a lot of chills down spines.

    Also in areas like intelligence and cyber security we were left very exposed year when the HSE was attacked. Yes, they might have left the barn doors wide open, but our cyber security strategy seems to be weak to the point of being non existent.

    We are hosting major international IT infrastructure and making good money out of revenue and jobs because of that and it’s only here because we are in the EU and are a big gateway into Europe and I think we do have a duty of care there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    northern ireland shows otherwise, we would have actually developed even less and slower then we did, and by miles in fact.

    we have developed very well and did so because of joining the EU and making our own way in the world before hand dispite the issues that brought.

    nato most definitely isn't a certainty, as regardless of whatever obligations are set out there is absolutely no guarantee it would come to our aid.

    in a situation where russia were to threaten us or even successfully invade nato would not be coming to our aid due to the high risks involved, they would provide weapons maybe but even then that is not a certainty.

    it is very clear, keeping our neutrality and spending more on defense is the only option available, we won't successffully stop a super power invading but certainly if we train our military to use certain tactics we could certainly bog them down.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I don't agree that we'd have developed any faster than we did. I think that's a moot point to be quite honest. We received a bit of Marshall plan aid from 1947 to 1957 and had no issues whatsoever with any of our stances having impacted trade.

    We also emerged from WWII relatively unscathed compared to most of continental Europe and Britain which had to do a lot of infrastructural rebuilding. I'm not sure I'd agree that having to rebuild flattened cities was something that would have been beneficial to the Irish economy. They saw a lot of spend on infrastructure, we didn't as it wasn't smashed up. The downside was it was also pretty much as it was in the early 1930s.

    From the 1950s onward, our economy began to grow albeit slowly and things were made much more outward looking, particularly after TK Whitaker's First Programme for Economic Expansion (the Grey Book) set us on the path towards welcoming FDI in a big way.

    There's also a rather distorted notion that Ireland was highly protectionist and inwards looking after independence. It wasn't really anymore so than other countries at the time. There wasn't a concept of globalised or intra-European rules based trade. A lot of it was about empires, military might and extreme protectionism. Small countries tended to get buffeted around by that and we certainly did.

    We were a relatively poor, mostly still agrarian economy and had left the British world and were being heavily shunned for having done so. It was a pretty serious structural upheaval for the Irish economy.

    If you look back, a lot of our early infrastructural projects tendered for major international contractors in a very modern way. We were trading and exporting where we could. We tried to bring in knowledge exchange type arrangements by encouraging manufacturing subsidiaries and all sorts of stuff.

    There was a huge degree of interest in reaching out to continental Europe and I think we tend to underestimate how much activity went on in the late 50s and 1960s especially in the run up to our membership of the EEC. A lot of our focus tends to fixate on Anglo-Irish relations. There was a lot more going on.

    Our economy began to flourish when it was plugged into the rules-based trade environment that was largely fostered by early pre-EU institutions and a change of global attitudes to trade more generally - and the rise of smaller European countries setting some of those agendas too.

    I just find there's a big tendency to keep comparing 1920s/30s/40s Ireland to modern times without seeing the context it operated in.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph



    in a situation where russia were to threaten us or even successfully invade nato would not be coming to our aid due to the high risks involved, they would provide weapons maybe but even then that is not a certainty.


    NATO wouldn't necessarily directly intervene, but absolutely no reason for the UK not to and would be daft for them not to.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    every reason for the UK to not interveen.

    putin is not called vlad the insaner for no reason, if britain dared to directly get involved it would be nuclear war.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,569 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Of course the UK would intervene. The only possible reason Russia would invade Ireland would be part of some Moronic incompetent attempt to target the UK. The UK would enjoy demolishing those troops far from home with pretty much no support. The whole idea of Russia invading Ireland is fantasy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    i am afraid that is just not guaranteed that the UK would get involved.

    if russia was to attack the UK the UK would just deal with that problem early on, whereas if an invasion force got to ireland then unless they ended up in NI then there is no reason to bother as they can just stop them hard when they get close.

    even if the UK did get involved early on it wouldn't be for ireland's benefit, so relying on some intervention from the UK to come and save us is not a solution.

    we need to spend our own money on defense, a defense force that has the capabilities we need.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,569 ✭✭✭jackboy


    We do not need capabilities to counter a fantasy Russian invasion. It’s only slightly more plausible than an alien invasion. Almost anything else we could spend the money on would be more useful.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    actually we do, it's naive to think that we would never be invaded.

    russia was just a country i picked, it doesn't have to be them exactly.

    da brits will save us or america will save us is just naive and unguaranteed, we have to do some bit of ground work and bolstering the defense forces is a necessary we will be unable to get out of going forward.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Of course it would be for the UKs benefit to deal with any invasion of Ireland, and the sooner you send any invading force back into the sea before they manage to get a decent land operation going the better. If the UK waited until they crossed the border to NI just so as not to appear to upset the Republic for some reason, despite the fact that Ireland would at that point be begging for assistance, then the UK would be as stupid as the invading Russian generals who thought that getting into Europe from the opposite side and two islands away was a good plan.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    What is the reason for Russia invading Ireland in this scenario? What are they going to do after taking Ireland?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    What reason would anyone have for invading Ireland? What are they trying to gain from doing so, and if their final target is somewhere else in Europe, then why stop off two islands away for a rest after their trip across the Atlantic before making their next move?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Back when there wasn't aircraft, satellites, instant worldwide communication networks, missiles that could be aimed at you from the next continent over and boats were just powered by the wind... Then it would have made sense to land an invading force on a quiet island, recover from your trip across the ocean, steal some food, women and any extra fighting forces you could manage before then making a short hop across another smaller body of water to attack your next target.

    Would be completely stupid these days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Unfortunately while people can keep saying it's not going to happen ,it can't happen ,but we no longer live in a normal world where long accepted rules and agreements and borders exist anymore,

    I'd like to see us Join Nato if not a European army ,

    But for now we can't even agree upping our defense budget past 0.3 % of our gdp we send more money to African countries than we spend on defense



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,546 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Trump got the snowball starting to run down the hill with the deal he did with the Taliban. It's no surprise that Biden had no inclination to stop it, given that he had argued against a surge in the number of US soldiers on the ground when he was vice-president.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,406 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Read the earlier posts in the thread, numerous examples are given.





  • I have been heretofore terribly against our country joining NATO. It wasn’t that I was unaware that Putin wasn’t some threat to more “eastern” countries. Could be said I had my head in the sand. My mother always held that NATO was not alone provocative but allowed USA say too much power; she was around for the beginning of it. Now I think it is pragmatically necessary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭DeadHand


    I skimmed the thread as best I could and found nothing of what you claim with such authority.

    At the moment I remain with my initial instinct that you made it up.

    It's important to call out historic lies. Such as that there was ever a popular appetite in Ireland to join NATO.

    @markodaly



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,746 ✭✭✭zv2


    Twitter are bypassing Russian censorship The Tor Project (@torproject) / Twitter

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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