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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,150 ✭✭✭Talisman


    According to Hristo Grozev and his sources:

    • The Russian forces are not using encrypted communication channels so the Ukrainians have no problem listening in.
    • Bad news is not being relayed to Moscow, it doesn't make it up the chain beyond area commanders so those in Moscow are not aware of the severity of their loses. This may also be affecting Russia's negotiating position.
    • Putin lost the plot when he learned that the army had fired 8 cruise missiles at Vinnitsa airport because it wasn't a strategic objective and they only had a stockpile of 200 of the missiles.


  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well that is what it will mean. Can you honestly say that with no EU membership, no NATO membership, no army, almost landlocked that the Russians will just be like "Grand job lads. You do you!"?

    Again, this isn't meant to be an attack or a "Gotcha", I'm genuinely trying to figure out what world Ukraine will rebuild and thrive in while under the Russian yoke because the last time they tried to actually get their **** together we ended up with the current war.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Wars are 'won' by many means. Unless the West goes in with boots on the ground military, which would be beyond retarded for any number of reasons, the Ukrainians cannot win this war by conventional means. Not going to happen. I support the west arming the Ukrainians and the across the board sanctions against Russia because it buggers Russia up on all fronts. And the longer they're bogged down the more they will come to the table, or their country and autocrats face utter ruin. As it is they're a dead man walking politically, economically, militarily and morally.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,726 ✭✭✭jam_mac_jam


    I have to agree with you, the speech he did before the invasion about Ukraine not being a real country would lead you to believe that he could decide the same about the Baltic states. It was chilling. Whatever about him arguing about security or bullshit de Nazification, a historical claim to Russian empire/ USSR land is frightening.

    I didn't think he thought he would be stupid enough to invade Ukraine so he could be stupid enough to invade the Baltic states or decides he likes the look of some of Poland for his "security". I don't think he will. But then again I never thought he would invade Ukraine. I thought maybe go into the break away regions but not further. And I don't consider myself a cheerleader after Chechnya and bombing his own people and killing journalists I know he was a monster. Just thought he was a rational one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,922 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Indeed, "pinch of salt" is my favorite phrase in here, plus we're obviously receiving a lot of Ukraine-centric info, but there's a line between healthy skepticism and a badly hidden agenda. All the pro-Putin and hardcore anti-Western individuals didn't just disappear, quite a few in here pointing out any Ukrainian soldier they can find with a far-right tattoo or always questioning casting doubt on the latest Russian atrocity.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    on July 15, 2004, following a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO commission, President Kuchma of Ukraine issued a decree stating that joining NATO was no longer the country's goal - only "a significant deepening of relations with NATO and the European Union as guarantors of security and stability in Europe, question arises from this, did Ukraine sell out in order to get closer to the prizes,spoils and money that comes with being aligned with the west?

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Again read what I wrote. Where did I say no army? Where did I say no EU? I would bet the farm that before this war no way in hell would the majority of people here would want Ukraine in the EU until serious changes were made in their country. The EU wouldn't. The need for those changes didn't magically go away.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    Of course they can win it. If they are given the weapons. The Soviet Union was defeated by Afghanistan ffs.

    If you support arming Ukraine at all it has to be to win the war, for Russia to be routed and Ukraine's full territorial integrity to be restored. And for this to happen as quickly as possible.

    Anything else is immoral and treats Ukraine as merely a pawn in a proxy war without any regard at all for the Ukrainian people.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Going beyond the break away regions was baffling on so many fronts. If he'd 'just' taken the 'independent republics' I'd be very surprised if a tenth of the shít that has descended on Russia would have happened. I think putin simply got high on his own supply and believed the bullshít he was peddling and what his underlings told him. That the Ukrainian people would laud him as a saviour from 'nazis' and welcome him in with little enough resistance. The way the Russian troops behaved in the very early stages of this war suggests they thought similar. That Ukrainian guy who stopped his car and chatted with the Russian troops who ran out of petrol and suggested he'd give them a tow, back to Russia, with laughter all around. I can't see that happening today. More like what happened to that elderly couple just driving in their car.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,922 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I don't understand the point here?

    Ukraine has wanted to join the EU for a long time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 389 ✭✭pjordan


    In the last few days I've noted 2 particular Ukrainian casualties of the conflict; Yevhen Deidei https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevhen_Deidei and Oleksandr Marchenko https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Marchenko_(politician). 2 not particularly likeable lads if you look at their bios and past histories on Wikipedia. However the plain fact is that both of them gave their lives defending Ukraine and have united with all the factions in Ukraine from the extreme left to the extreme right in a passionate nationalistic defence of their country.

    Sure there are gonna be nasty elements involved in the defence and there are gonna be plenty with plenty of paramilitary expereince but no more than if the crunch came back in the day in NI would ya rather have had ruthless psychotic bastards like Mad dog McGlinchy or Dessie O'Haire inside the tent pissing out or outside the tent pissing in. Might leave a bad taste in the mouth but desperate times cause for desperate measures and these are desperate times in Ukraine.





  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes, I know they were a ways away, which makes the Russian keenness to invade even more important. There was zero threat yet in they went.

    The Russians are calling for a full demilitarisation and removal of current government.

    The Russians are calling for Ukraine to become and remain neutral (in terms of the EU and NATO). Without binding agreements with outside countries (which Russia won't agree to) to come to Ukraine's aid in future should the Russians decide to pop back for a bit more land/oil/scrapyards to leave their tanks in.

    As long as the above are being demanded there is little point in negotiating. If they're accepted by Ukraine then Ukraine will be under Russia's yoke.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @Hobgoblin11

    did Ukraine sell out in order to get closer to the prizes,spoils and money that comes with being aligned with the west?

    You say that like it's a bad thing. Prizes, spoils and money? Nah, would rather live in the glum shadow of post-soviet Russian repression and economic stagnation, please.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    But its not working out that way, they gambled on Russia not destroying their country, their home, now they will be in poverty for a generation and after that in limbo afraid to align with either side, I just think selling out has never proved so costly to a country as this will prove to be

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The car being hit by the tanks with no burning is not a surprise OH. We're all too used to seeing Hollywood images of war and when explosions go off there's a fireball. Not unlike every car in a Hollywood movie that goes off a cliff bursts into flame and then explodes. Or when someone shoots a pistol round into a gas cannister and Kaboom. Doesn't happen. Unless it's an incendiary round designed to start fires the blast itself drives oxygen out of the area and can even put out existing flames. Most of the energy goes into the unfortunate target. Burning if any is a side effect of flammable material catching fire after the event. I'm skeptical of some stuff out there, but not that sad event. Trigger happy goons in a war zone firing on anything that moves and in this case the tragic and criminal death of an elderly couple.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I'll echo the other poster, of course Ukraine wants in on the "prizes, spoils and money" of the EU.

    What future for Ukraine being turned into a Belarus writ large? It's sovereignty wiped out, and chained to the dead hand of the Russian extractive economy.

    That's rather the whole point. Ukraine from 2004 was clearly traveling in a direction of integration with the biggest trade bloc in the world and the rules based order of the EU, and hurtling away from the moribund and oppressive influence of the Kremlin.

    They're suffering because of the jealous heart of a paranoid creep. One man. And he's trying to pull the entire continent down around all of our heads because he's in denial that he lost Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    Now, that stupid propaganda, QAnon is spouting and stating that there were bioweapons in Ukraine, created by the US. Tucker Carlson is propagating this nonsense notion.

    Stupid bastards now feel vindicated in their support of a truly evil and fascist regimen. Only they know the truth, unlike the rest of us Sheeple 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,922 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The Azoz battalion is about 900 members. Ukraine should have disbanded them but Russia declared hybrid warfare in the country in 2014, and the Ukrainians have since been desperately fighting Russia's proxy forces in the S.E of the country, they couldn't really afford to be very picky.

    Around 20% of the group identify as Neo-Nazi's (or whatever) but let's just call it a third of the battalion, that's 300 men.

    Ukraine has 125k army, 60k national guard and almost a million reservists.

    300 people out of 1.2 million. That's 0.025%. Right let's call it the full battalion of 900 out of 1.2 million. 0.075%

    Get my point? The only reason we are discussing this absurd nonsense is because of Russian propaganda. The reason Russian propaganda is so potent is not because it admonishes Russia, but because it gets people to doubt the Ukrainians and/or the West



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    They weren't 'selling out' by looking westward, firstly. Secondly, f*ck Russia. Even if they smash the country, they cannot smash Ukrainians' eventual aspirations, even if the invasion delays its achievement.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    To think Tucker Carlson once applied to join the CIA. He was rejected on personality grounds allegedly. And probably IQ grounds as well but they were being polite.



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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,408 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro




  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    It is deliberate misinformation. He is an extremely sinister threat to democracy.

    But then I remember how 99% of people that I have met in real life feel really sad for the Ukrainian people and wish them peace and sovereignty.

    Unfortunately, the 1% of “critical thinkers” make disproportionate noise on the internet



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,922 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    They wanted to join the EU since the 90's, they obviously had no idea that Russia would actually invade their country for attempting to do so. The very notion of which was considered completely absurd up until a few weeks ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,332 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Or perhaps Ukraine's renewed determination to join NATO might have something to do with this and this


    Maybe after those incursions the Ukranians might have feared Putin would one day try to take over their entire country...



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Afghanistan was and is a very different environment. The American coalition couldn't hold it, the USSR had no hope. What's different? Afghanistan is not so much a country as a patchwork of fiefdoms ruled by local warlords. They fight among themselves but respond to external threats together with a strong faith as the glue. It's one of the most mountainous regions on the planet and is decentralised among those mountains and valleys and roads are basic if even present, where defenders can dig in and hide and modern military tech has a hard time taking them out. You go valley by valley and they just move and come back when you're gone. Beyond Kabul the infrastructure is basic to non existent and the people are used to and happy living in that. Taking Kabul is a piece of piss, extending that to the rest of the country isn't. Not by a long shot. The country is a graveyard to many military misadventures over centuries.

    Ukraine is one of the flatest nations out there, with some mountains to the very West. A modern more centralised nation with modern infrastructure, that people are used to and need to live, which makes it far more vulnerable. Complex systems always are. To really stretch a comparative anology, Afghanistan is like a rock, Ukraine is like a pocketwatch. Which is easier to break?

    Ukraine was already a proxy peace and now a proxy war. That ship has sailed too.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,536 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,982 ✭✭✭✭Ash.J.Williams


    If Ukraine want to join NATO, EU or even the GAA it's none of Russia's business and they can indeed f** off....it's not like they were going to attack Russia



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,922 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭omega man


    Putin is finished one way or another in my opinion. It’s now about whether Russia and its people want to go down with him or not.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Of course they can win it. If they are given the weapons.

    On this point Snooker: If you're defending your home on your own I can give you ten AK47's and all the rounds you want. If ten men with AK47's and an RPG are attacking your home, you're not going to win. You can kill or injure a couple of the men attacking you and if you injure or kill enough that the rest keep their heads down that's great, but you won't win. Especially if they can get a couple of men to replace the dead ones. You can hopefully hold out until the attackers figure the juice isn't worth the squeeze and back off. That's essentially Ukraine's position.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



This discussion has been closed.
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