Irelands increased Debt - Post Pandemic

mamasboyspups · 10-03-2022 6:02pm #1

Is anybody else worried about Irelands runaway finances after the luxuries of the PUP and Subsidised Wages for the last 2 years?

Irelands debt is approx 236 Billion, with interest rates of approx 5.1%, and these interest rates on Bonds easily rising by 3% over the coming years...

Ireland has the highest debt in the Western World except for Japan and USA...

Larbre34 · 10-03-2022 6:18pm

Where did you get those interest rates from?

The NTMA have refinanced €4.5 billion in debt from 1 Jan to today, at an average rate of 0.98%, the story is in any media business section this afternoon.

No, the level of debt doesn't bother me. The EU commission is underpinning post-pandemic stimulus with 3 Trillion of its own funding at near 0%, and with the War now, I would expect that to expand.

We are well able to trade our way out of any deficits. Compared to 2008 all of our fundamentals are much more sound, at a household, business and exchequer level and overall I'm much happier to be experiencing growth levels of 4,5 and 6% while holding onto some low cost debt than be stagnant and be debt low.

If 2008-11 taught us anything, you have to back counter-cyclical economics and inject liquidity in uncertain times then unwind it when stability is there, as we did from 2013-2019.

Our running deficit is low, we have huge flexibility in exchequer ability to respond, I'd expect us to continue to increase GDP/GNI out to 2030 and lower the relative debt burden in that fashion while refinancing prudently and manageably.

mamasboyspups · 10-03-2022 6:32pm

From gov.ie, section 5.1 states Irelands effective interest rate of 5.1%

in "Annual Report on Public Debt in Ireland 2020"

Larbre34 · 10-03-2022 7:01pm

That's interesting. The NTMA in its last comprehensive update in June 2021 for year to end 2020 shows something quite different. This extract is from RTÉ business report of the time.

Quite the disparity there I would say and one of them must be wrong. I don't think it would be the NTMA.

dxhound2005 · 10-03-2022 8:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764125#Comment_118764125

That was the peak in 2008. It is much lower now.

Crucially, Ireland’s debt management office – the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) – has taken advantage of the low interest rate environment by issuing longer-dated debt at lower yields. As a result, there has been a persistent downward trend in the average rate of interest – the so-called ‘effective interest rate’ (EIR, figure 3a). In 2019, the EIR was just 2.2 per cent, and this figure will be below 2 per cent last year.

Larbre34 · 10-03-2022 8:18pm

Yes, all very positive indicators.

I read another statistic recently that said, despite the pandemic impact, our national debt to gross exchequer revenue ratio, has dropped from 3.2 to 2.6:1

Dempo1 · 10-03-2022 8:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058236761/irelands-increased-debt-post-pandemic

Luxuries of PUP 😳 Luxuries of Wage Subsidiies 😳 , clearly you've not had to depend on either after your Job was lost or your employer was struggling because of a global pandemic. You must be horrified at the €200 electricity Credit and the €125 fuel allowance top up to those who actually qualify, heavens above the Excise duty reduction on fuel yesterday must have appalled you .

Curious as to your Thoughts on Ireland welcoming up to 100k Refugees from Ukraine, escaping appalling conditions and the "Luxuries " being afforded them, namely SW , Medical Cards and housing, God help us our national Debt is going to go through the roof now 🙄

mamasboyspups · 10-03-2022 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764762#Comment_118764762

I heard on the Irish news today, that they think the recent Hospital admissions were merely indicators of COVID infection, and not the reason these people were in Hospital.

IT's striking how the mood has changed on whether COVID is a cause of death, and just one extra thing.

Dempo1 · 10-03-2022 9:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764943#Comment_118764943

Not all sure what that has to do with your opening "Luxuries " comments

Fascinating the amount of threads started that ask a ligitmate question but have to add subtle digs to make a point

Jim_Hodge · 10-03-2022 10:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764943#Comment_118764943

What has that to do with the wind-up in your OP?

mamasboyspups · 10-03-2022 11:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764762#Comment_118764762

What about talented people who were not allowed to work for 2 years, nor collect a single cent in Pandemic payments?

Rules to exclude hard working talented people, if they did not work on the 28th February 2020?

Jim_Hodge · 10-03-2022 11:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765692#Comment_118765692

Do you mean artists???

What has that to do with the debt level? You got nothing so nobody should have got anything? That kind of thing?

10-03-2022 11:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058236761/irelands-increased-debt-post-pandemic

Like you say, we have insanely high levels of debt. Very high inflation and now the war and fuel costs going through the roof.

Seems like recession is inevitable.

Geuze · 10-03-2022 11:54pm

The 230-250 bn public debt is a worry, yes.

But the interest cost is nothing like 5%.

The interest bill is:

2019 = 4,623m

2020 = 3,829m

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gfsa/governmentfinancestatisticsoctober2021/

The interest on new debt is sub 1%.

Larbre34 · 11-03-2022 12:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765747#Comment_118765747

You're obviously not au fait with what causes recessions.

Sovereign debt doesn't.

High fuel costs can depress activity, but OPEC are now cracking under pressure and I expect the Russian oil loss to the market to be offset and prices to be back to 60/70 dollars per barrel within weeks.

Loss of consumer and business confidence can of course contribute to recession, but there is no sign of that damaging Ireland's fundamentally strong growth. Inflation is high, but it will begin to settle soon enough as the supply chain is reset and new markets replace the small presence of Russia and Belarus.

In a worst case scenario, Ireland might see growth of 3 or 4%, rather than 5 to 7%, but recession is not on the cards.

11-03-2022 1:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764762#Comment_118764762

Sure ok we’re gonna have a merry auld time, ring o ring o rosey

11-03-2022 1:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765692#Comment_118765692

Dempo IS a hard working world class talented professionally qualified & a worldwide educational force in his realm btw. Just happen to know.

Notmything · 11-03-2022 1:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118764985#Comment_118764985

Esp for new accounts.

rossie1977 · 11-03-2022 2:40am

Unless Ireland is unable to pay the interest owed on an annual basis there is nothing to worry about

Dempo1 · 11-03-2022 6:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118765692#Comment_118765692

Again, more incoherent, rambling nonsense, but you've managed to confirm my initial suspicions regarding the motivation behind this Thread, which frankly is vile.

Dempo1 · 11-03-2022 6:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766151#Comment_118766151

Well said, I had spotted 2 posts by the time this Thread was started but instead focussed on the clear baiting attempt with the opening comment "Luxuries" 😏

mariaalice · 11-03-2022 2:03pm

It's possible another one of them threads where the person has some slight depression or anxiety and really does far the state will go broke on the other hand is could be another version of ranting about social welfare.