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Russian build up along Ukraine

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  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    No. Just a negotiated corridor to allow those leaving MARIUPOL a safe passage. The Liner could be from a third country on charter. As time goes on a particular action by him may close the window. Higher levels need to talk to Putin and give him some reassurance without giving him Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,468 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    All negotiated corridors to date have been shelled by russian forces who are deliberately targeting civilians.All you'll be doing is creating another Wilhelm Gustloff






  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Shelled or mined. At this stage I wouldn't trust Russia with any civilian corridor anywhere, add in the gross incompetence of the Russian Navy as you say it has the potential to go extremely wrong with a lot of innocent people dying, not that they aren't already sadly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 35,058 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Surely with their country on a war* "special operational" footing, the conscripts can forget about going home for the foreseeable?



    * it IS a war as far as I'm concerned

    © 1982 Sinclair Research Ltd



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    There’s no question that it’s a war, but legally (for Russia) Conscripts aren’t meant to be deployed for foreign operations and can’t be used for 6 months after conscription. Putin already said they weren’t in Ukraine and then there MOD had to admit they were. If they don’t demobilise at the end of the month there will be hell to pay even for Putin.


    Remember if the US figures are right they’ve taken nearly as many dead in two weeks as the US took in 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and nearly 2/3 of what the ussr took in 10 years in Afghanistan.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    The GUSTLOFF incident was a horrific loss of civilians and some military during a WW . If a final corridor is guaranteed by all sides then I'm suggesting for a port city that a ship would be useful because of it's lift capability. I know that the Russians are dirty players in all matters including Sport, War, and have little credibility with reality except that the end justifies the means but right now there is no one else to negotiate with, hopefully like Pavlov's dog they will catch on .



  • Registered Users Posts: 35,058 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Rumours that mobile crematoria are being used by the Russians to avoid body bags coming home. Who knows if that's true or not. But one way or the other, Ivan and Ivanka Public are going to find that their son isn't coming home and they are not going to like it. Who cares about Big Macs and iPhones?

    © 1982 Sinclair Research Ltd



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    They aren't respecting the corridors that they themselves are suggesting on land, what makes you think that they would respect one at sea? Like I said the Russian Navy has been living up to it's usual worst examples so I wouldn't be surprised if they claimed that the Ukrainian's would be to blame for anything that might happen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    There have been rumours about that alright, not sure if any of them have been captured (which is saying something given the scale of equipment that is being taken by Ukrainians), but yeah sooner or later families are going to find out about their sons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,173 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I saw one Ukrainian local official on newsnight about a week ago saying they are having to burn or bury the Russian dead to avoid the risk of disease, because the Russians are scarpering so fast from flash points that they aren't paying any attention to their own fallen, even lads that might just be wounded. Doesn't say much for their military might.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Did you see how quickly that tank column retreated yesterday? Clearly everyone has been on the take in the Russian supply chain/military since the fall of the USSR, add in the appalling treatment of their conscripts and it’s not a huge surprise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    It was unreal seam to be every tank and apc for themselves when the first misile hit them



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Not yet but after this is said and done we May see an accelerated push to form an integrated EU army



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,468 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    NO!

    Common security and defence at a stretch, but EU army is a myth, put out by the (putin paid) anti war lobby to confuse any debate on neutrality.



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    As regards an EU Army, that might clash with current NATO commitments and allocation of Forces. HQ's have come together and assets were put in place for things like OP PONTUS, initial migrant rescue schemes , and OP SOPHIA an anti migrant enablers operation in and off the North African region. There was also the more active scheme off the Horn Of Africa. We took part in the former two and had officers in the Italian based HQ., as well as Irish Naval ships at sea who rescued around 17,000 people . The Taoiseach mentioned today he would consider troops in Poland as part of an Eu mission.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,173 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Yeah, for humanitarian support ops only it must be said.

    I'd be surprised if they'd be needed to be honest, there are civil defence and humanitarian organisations all over the continent that can get there quicker and with much more kit overland. That's not to mention the militaries of Central Europe. We should, of course, support them in any way they ask though, including medical airlift and specialist evacuation where needed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,173 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    At the EU summit in Versailles today, they couldn't get positive consensus on either energy divestment or fast-tracking Ukrainian EU membership.

    There may be increased commitment to EU crisis response structures out of this, but the notion of a unified EU military command is fanciful. Especially as NATO has been catapulted back to primacy in the bulwark of Western Hemisphere defence. And it looks like either or both Sweden and Finland will soon join that Organisation, which will cement its place as the standalone single-purpose entity for the defence of Old Europe and democratic Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭ancientmariner


    At this juncture most western countries are overburdened by consequences and are differing between what needs to be done and what they can usefully do without drawing retaliation from RU. With growing indiscriminate actions perhaps some redline prohibitions should be announced by those giving current support to Ukraine. For instance if the RU attack a convoy coming in from Poland that the west responds by eliminating the source of fire. With continuing attrition and change of Ru tactics some attempt must be made to shift initiative and lay out consequences for Putin. The overall silence of the USA is worrying together with nobody in charge of overall response which need to be made on a daily basis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,113 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Chacking effort work by Jonny Brazilian and God bless Embraer!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,129 ✭✭✭Psychlops


    "Jonny Brazilian" 🙄 would you just stop posting here please.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,968 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    If peace talks breakdown ,if I were Zelensky I would take out that new russian bridge to crimea with a bomb or would that drive Putin completely over the edge



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    How exactly would he even be in position to attack it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,646 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You be surprised. I am sure that NATO could lend him a few drones well capable of reaching the bridge and bombing it.

    Even at present Russia is still not in control of the sky over Ukraine's. A standard jet bomber may be able to reach it even at present.

    A special forces team of with Ukrainian or military contractors may be able to access it over land. Maybe Henry Garvie and the boys now they are retired a few years.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    NATO is being very careful about what military equipment they are sending, they aren’t going to give Drones of such capability, and given that such drones aren’t in Ukrainian service, they would need NATO service people as well.

    While the Ukrainian Air Force is still combat capable, they are at what half strength, such a mission to an area that Russia has held for 8 years would need a significant use of those that are left and likely heavy losses they can’t replace.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,646 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,173 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Call me naive, but I think the Russians might keep an eye on that bridge.

    I watched former SACEUR Wesley Clark on the box last night and he gets the sense the Ukrainians are gearing up for counter-offensive operation in certain locations where the Russian cover is thin, not resupplied and exhausted.

    The Ukrainians have had magnificent success in getting into temporary Russian bases and destroying armour and helis on the ground, almost 40 this week! I have so much admiration for what they are doing.

    Apart from that, the key tactical issue is to prevent Russian self-propelled guns and MLRS from getting good positions at Kyiv and Odessa and the likes. Big days ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Given it’s the supply route for Crimea and their Southern Front, you can bet they are keeping a close eye on it (as much as the Russians can, as this war has demonstrated they are a fecking joke).

    There have been a few reports of localised counterattacks, but I haven’t seen anything suggesting that a major assault might be imminent, the Ukrainians are faced with the same problem as the Russians in being limited to the road network due to the mud. However given the US is now conservatively putting Russian losses above 7k, and the possibility of up to three times that wounded, how much effective combat power is left in the Russian advance is an open question. They are still in another “operational pause” as they try to unfuck their logistics while facing issues of having such crappy commas that their most recent general was killed after “Ukrainians” traced his phone call and took out his command (that’s 4 generals he’s lost now), add in mixed views on whether China is willing to fully back Russia, and they could be in for more issues within the next week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,953 ✭✭✭sparky42


    The Russians just lost one of their LSTs in one of the occupied Ukrainian ports, Ukraine is claiming they hit it with SRBMs, but given Russian performance this could just as easily been a self inflicted wound. Either way another hit to the Russians, meanwhile most suggestions now are that their units in the North have lost all ability to advance and have gone on the defensive with reports of new advances from Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,173 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Now is the most worrying time for me.

    Putin has gone into paranoia overdrive. His command and control on the ground is gone to ****. His commanders in the field are being picked off. His conscripts are being massacred / captured /deserting. Logistics do not exist. His armour and rotary wings are being picked off by superior enemy smart weapons. Fixed wing are afraid to fly where Star Streak, Sky Sabre and likely their own built S-300 are deployed. He is benching senior members of the military and intelligence services. Senior brass are privately expressing their anxiety and frustration at the entire undertaking to journalists and foreign diplomats. His Defence Minister Shiogu, the second most popular politician in Russia has disappeared from view, likely taking the blame for the farce.

    The question is, what does Putin do with all that levelled against him? The potential response is the worry.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 35,058 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Hopefully he gets himself a glass of whiskey and a revolver

    © 1982 Sinclair Research Ltd



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