Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Field east · 12-03-2022 10:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772113#Comment_118772113

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769759#Comment_118769759

It is so so so so sad to see this thread being pulled all over the place ,

liamtech · 12-03-2022 10:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771710#Comment_118771710

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771727#Comment_118771727

I absolutely hope the campaigns continue and are successful. External pressure may be effective in weakening Putin's stranglehold on Russia.

I apologize if my post on the 'Iron Curtain' was a tad melodramatic. However i found myself watching a BBC News special on the situation inside Russia RE propaganda, censorship, and the destruction of what free independent media remained.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/media/russia-free-press-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-news-anchor-likens-home-north-korea-absolutely-isolated-1686933

The above links cover the same material but perhaps the BBC Special will appear on youtube. I found the coverage stunning. Watching the bewildered faces of independent Russian journalists voluntarily cease production, in the face of hard line Russian state censorship. It was nightmarish. FYI the BBC World service have begun listing information on VPN and other security bypassing methods for use in Russia. I cannot find the Russian directed version of these instructions but below is a link for english language users in Russia

https://www.applemust.com/how-to-watch-bbc-news-in-russia/

Bottom line is we are back to the Cold War playbook at this stage. Obviously not that internet was available back then, but the above is a 21st century version of someone holding a radio up to their ear, with the volume low.

Next steps could be a slow solidifying of Russian borders, as the regime steps in to stop a 'brain drain'. The official name for the Berlin wall: anti fascist protection barrier.. are we there yet?

“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain

I have some family stuff this weekend, so wont be posting. And i really do hope i am greeted with a chorus of laughter on monday, along with obvious signs the Putins regime is beginning to shake. Lets hope we come back from the brink

McGiver · 12-03-2022 11:16am

Very interesting Estonian analysis, they're close to the Russian "head". They've had historical experience and know how Russian regime/elites think.

"I spoke with an analyst who has access to information and whom I consider to be one of the best in Estonia. His main conclusion is:" The danger is far from over, but there is reason for very cautious optimism. The Russian advance has apparently come to a halt."

The situation on the fronts has been relatively stable since last Saturday. The reform of Russian troops and a new line of attack are expected, but so far there is little evidence of this. "If Russia does not make significant progress by the end of the week, it's hard to say how it should happen at all."

The southern line of attack was divided into two, one advancing in the direction of Mykolaiv, the other to Kryvyi Rih. This poses a serious risk to Russian forces, as supply lines that we already know fart are still stretching. "It leaves Ukrainians a lot of chances to" break them to pieces."

The question is whether Moscow will force Lukashenko to send troops from Belarus today, but the motivation of Belarusian troops is even lower than that of Russia. "The West Ukrainian national & anti-Russian environment would be extremely hostile to them."

The idea of bringing in Syrian fighters is extremely desperate. "It's one thing to fight in the narrow streets of Arab cities. It's another to fight in Kyiv or Kharkiv, where the boulevards are 100 meters wide." It also refers to the cold climate and low morale of the Syrians.

About a possible mobilization in Russia. It was on the agenda of the Fed Council and the Duma last Friday, but high-ranking soldiers allegedly persuaded Putin not to give her an order yet. "The backup units have no training, they don't even have enough uniforms for them."

"Very few midfielders have been involved in the West exercise. For the few thousand they usually place, the officers complain that they 'spoil' the exercise." The fatigue of Russian troops is "massive". A third have been replaced, but incoming units are of even worse quality. Another third were destroyed, killed or injured. Reshaping units does not have a good impact on combat capability.

Ukraine's counter-offensive is still small, but if Russia stagnates, Ukraine has the resources to start pushing. The first goal would be to push Russia out of the country in the north (Kyiv and Kharkiv).

Getting back positions in the south will be more difficult, also due to the terrain. "In the steppe, you will be an open target from the air."

As for the lack of Russian missiles. "Putin was told he had 10,000 missiles. In fact, he had a thousand. It's strange that he didn't remember himself lying to his own bosses as a young KGB officer. Such lying is common in this culture."

Holger Roonemaa, Delfi.ee investigative journalist

generic_throwaway · 12-03-2022 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771232#Comment_118771232

It's worth pointing out that the 2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine was ALSO deliberately caused by Russia, and that is not disputed by anyone except the Russians. So save your ire for Putin there too.

12-03-2022 11:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772344#Comment_118772344

Because the mods haven't gotten round to extending their CA ban to here yet

Dohnjoe · 12-03-2022 12:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772501#Comment_118772501

As always it's the same small handful of posters trying to troll these types of threads, nothing is off-limits to them.

Indeed on the CA forum, the mods have no time for them and have banned the usual suspects, as a result the thread is much better.

SafeSurfer · 12-03-2022 12:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771672#Comment_118771672

If a new iron curtain is being constructed then it is being built from both sides.

I think there is a tendency to over estimate the historical significance of events we live through. I don’t think this is a Fall of Constantinople or discovery of the New World moment.

When one is over exposed to news catastrophication, expert after expert, panel after panel telling you the world will never be the same again one can start to believe it.

pixelburp · 12-03-2022 12:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772168#Comment_118772168

As opposed to what? These events are already causing ripples across the EU and beyond with regards to collective defence, and it'd be naive to consider this invasion in isolation a local crisis. The ramifications have been global. With the bloc's borders so eastern, the EU's long term future needs to be properly established and built. IMO, that means going fully federal and to pull a morbid maxim: progress often happens one funeral at a time.

12-03-2022 1:47pm

Some more information on the Ukrainian drone which crashed in Croatia.

It was an ex-Soviet TU-141 which entered service in 1979. They are not like a modern drone that can land on a runway - it took photos on film and then the whole thing parachuted back to ground so they could recover the film. They fly at 620mph. They were retired in 1989 but Ukraine brought them back into service in 2014.

It flew from Ukraine into Hungary, flew over the entirety of Hungary then into Croatia where it crashed near a student dorm, leaving a 3m crater.

What the Ukrainians are using them for (or why) is a matter of speculation. They're so old they would surely be useless for reconnaissance, it's more likely they would use them as decoys.

In Hungary a lot of questions are being asked about how such a huge object could fly for 45 mins over the country without being shot down or intercepted.

https://twitter.com/Heavengo_01/status/1502058665964187692?s=20&t=PLfQNzAsmXtk-ZgaxS4TZg

Quin_Dub · 12-03-2022 2:17pm

##Mod Note##

Ok, just getting caught up on this thread.

Multiple below standard posts removed.

Let's set some ground rules and stipulations from here on out.

Ground Rules:-

Dumping multiple links and Walls of copied text from other sources is not acceptable
Memes and Images with no supporting text is not allowed.
Glib one liners are also not acceptable

Stipulations:-

Everyone accepts and understands that bad things have happened in the past and that the reactions to those events have differed.
No one has completely clean hands when it comes to military actions and interventions in previous years

So now that we have those stipulations in place , there is no need for "reminders" to be posted in the thread.

Next post saying anything akin to "Ah yes , but remember when Ukraine/Russia/US/NATO/Uncle Tom Cobley did this bad thing" gets a ban for the poster.

Same goes for breaches of the ground rules (which are in the Forum charter as well FYI).

Stick to the Topic of the thread , which are the current events in Ukraine.

Thank you.

Brussels Sprout · 12-03-2022 4:00pm

In a call yesterday between Putin and Lavrov that was broadcasted on Russian TV they discussed 16,000 "volunteers" who it seems will mostly come from Syria to fight alongside the Russian forces in Ukraine. There was also a video doing the rounds of troops in Central African Republic saying that they would come and fight.

I'm not sure how useful any of them would be in Ukraine. I'd say the African fighters would nearly die of the cold (It's currently 31 degrees C in C.A.R.). The Syrians might be better able to cope with the weather and they do have urban combat experience but it's in a very different landscape (cramped narrow streets in Syria versus wide boulevards in Ukraine). It will also be interesting to see what their motivation levels are like as well considering Putin stated explicitly on the call that they wouldn't be paying them.

If nothing else it is interesting that the Russians are resorting to external sources rather than moving more troops from the rest of Russia to Ukraine. It very likely indicates that they might feel that they are stretched right now. On the other hand it's also a lot easier to send foreign troops into the front lines to be cannon fodder rather then having more dead Russians to try and hide or account for back home.

Pussyhands · 12-03-2022 4:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771125#Comment_118771125

It's going to have to ramp up a lot more before nato steps in. Nato does not want the war to spread beyond Ukraine and the threshold is very high.

Pussyhands · 12-03-2022 4:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772970#Comment_118772970

Did they initially call this as a Russian drone? Or was I mistaken?

Are hungary in Nato?

Pussyhands · 12-03-2022 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773126#Comment_118773126

Can you clarify if calling someone a putinbot or asking how many roubles are being paid is a ban worthy offence?

Brussels Sprout · 12-03-2022 4:15pm

Yesterday the Mayor of Melitopol, one of the smaller cities that Russia has controlled for the past week or so, was abducted by Russian soldiers. He was seen being bundled away blindfolded by Russians.

It seems that the Russians had hoped that they would be able to coerce local officials and even police in occupied towns to switch sides - especially in Russian speaking areas. After all, that's exactly what happened in Crimea in 2014.

The abduction of the mayor is a sign that that tactic has not worked in this particular city (or any of the occupied cities to the best of my knowledge). No doubt they will now try and install some lackie willing to do their bidding. The locals are not happy. Today they are out protesting about this:

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1502553308329824257

You'd have to wonder what the Russians contingency plan is. If they can't win over a regional Russian speaking city what hope do they have when they get to the larger Ukrainian speaking cities, let alone Kiev.

They keep doubling down on brutality - presumably because that always works back home in Russia. At some point they're going to need to try a different tactic. I'm just not sure what that might be.

amandstu · 12-03-2022 4:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773655#Comment_118773655

I guess they might threaten uncooperative civic leaders with trumped up charges, esp if they can find willing stooges to settle old scores.

Gatling · 12-03-2022 4:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773734#Comment_118773734

Chances are he will end up in Moscow and put through a sham trial for committing crimes against Russian citizens

Nody · 12-03-2022 5:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773606#Comment_118773606

The reason for an external group of soldiers (which would be paid by "friends of Russia" such as Wagner group, rumor is they offered $100 / month for a 7 month contract) is because they will not have any complaints from Russian mothers when they die. They are not likely to be sympathetic to Ukrainians unlike many of their current troops and hence they get cheap cannon fodder to commit atrocities with deniability on their behalf and if they die; meh, who cares basically. That's why they are useful; not because they will actually make a significant swing in their city fighting ability as the Russian strategy turns up the terror aspect.

Gatling · 12-03-2022 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772970#Comment_118772970

Any actual evidence it was Ukrainian ,the drone in questions also flew across Romania too ,

Wonder if we're looking at another Russian false flag even

12-03-2022 5:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773637#Comment_118773637

Initially they said it could be Russian or Ukrainian based on type. Ukraine are the ones known to use it currently. Most Western sites are just reporting it as Ukrainian without any ambiguity.

Hungary and Croatia are in NATO.

12-03-2022 5:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118774020#Comment_118774020

That's more of a discussion for the conspiracy theory forum.

I'm more interested in knowing what the military objective was, was it a deacoy to make Russia waste missiles or reveal positions. Originally it was a surveillance drone but that type of delayed intelligence (you have to retrieve and develop film) is not much use nowadays.

Notmything · 12-03-2022 6:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771617#Comment_118771617

They seem to be only accepting volunteers with previous military experience.

Walter Mitty types and the like are being turned away or sent to non military services.

McGiver · 12-03-2022 6:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773637#Comment_118773637

Hungary entered NATO in 1999 along with Poland and Czechia.

That was before the Putin's arsélicker Orbán came to power and made Hungary into Russia Lite.

The drone was indeed Russian. Croatians are furious how come nobody intercepted it. Well, Hungary is a Russian trojan horse in the EU so...

McGiver · 12-03-2022 6:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118773825#Comment_118773825

They did the same in 1968 when they invaded Czechoslovakia and abducted the Reform Communist Czechoslovak leadership to Moscow where they made them sign a "letter of invitation" to justify the invasion. Putin and all the fascists around him actually still parroting about this nonsensical letter.

Brussels Sprout · 12-03-2022 6:52pm

The mayor of Volnovakha, a small city 30km north of Mariupol, has said that it has been completely destroyed.

He said since the invasion began most of Volnovakha's population has fled, and much of its infrastructure has been destroyed, meaning the city effectively no longer exists.

"In general, Volnovakha with its infrastructure as such no longer exists," he told Ukrainian TV channel Direct.

But he said fighting is still going on there to prevent a Russian encirclement of the strategically important territory.

According to wikipedia, it had a population of 21k so that'd be comparable to a large town like Naas or Athlone being wiped off the map.

I wonder is this also going to be the ultimate fate of Mariupol itself.

source

Gatling · 12-03-2022 6:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118774524#Comment_118774524

The Same happened in Crimea they forced the local government to sign the degree calling for the one sided referendum or they would face military violence.there was even Ukrainian soldiers sent to Moscow to face sham trials for crimes against Russia

SafeSurfer · 12-03-2022 7:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118774457#Comment_118774457

Lets hope there is some vetting and it’s not a clarion call for dreamers and those looking for an edgy Instagram opportunity.

President Zelensky stated:

“Anyone who wants to join the defence of Ukraine, Europe and the world can come and fight side by side with the Ukrainians against the Russian war criminals.”

I would presume the untrained would be more of a hindrance than a help. Certainly foreign volunteers will be much more motivated and have higher morale than the rag bag of recruits from Syria and Africa Russia is trying to piece together.

Irish volunteers acquitted themselves well in the International Brigade in the Spanish Civil War. Particularly the Connolly Column.

Although much more numerous, the Irish Brigade who fought for Franco, led by Eoin O’ Duffy were ineffective and ill disciplined. The drunken O’ Duffy being nicknamed “Old John Bollocks” by his men.

Gatling · 12-03-2022 7:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118774108#Comment_118774108

But it's not conspiracy theories .

Nothing regarding the drone crash in Croatia , like I know your trying to give a alternative view to whats going on with propaganda posts, but don't claim something is a conspiracy theory when you have proof otherwise

weisses · 12-03-2022 7:29pm

Using O'Driscolls logic NATO and Ukraine can now attack civillian airliners ..... Because Russian backed separatists shot one out of the sky in 2014 😏

SafeSurfer · 12-03-2022 7:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118774952#Comment_118774952

If it weren’t for the mod note I would bring up Iran Air flight 655.

Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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