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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    I havent seen anything official RE this. I would speculate that it is just further sabre rattling though - Perhaps Russia could claim its in response to the NATO exercises being conducted in the North Sea. Again though its just Sabre rattling.

    Apparently the exercises were planned a while ago. TBH even if they are off the cuff - i welcome them. Prudence demands that Russia monitor these exercises. just adds something else for them to worry about.

    Iv been searching for more discussion on Russia's request for Chinese support - cant find much beyond speculation. one tweet suggested that they are looking for MRE rations for their troops. If true, just shows yet more Russian inept planning

    No links for either, they are readily available, and nothing concrete in any case.

    There are still a lot of bad faith arguments being offered on this thread, and its a shame. I feel its being derailed now - hoping things calm down and we can get back to debating the reality of the situation

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    @Gatling @odyssey06

    Folks im genuinely posting in good faith, And i mean no offense. I feel for you both, if you go back a few days. You will see that I, like you, tried in vain to argue with certain posters. It is of no use.

    • Every time you make a sound logical point, the user(s) deflect. They change topic or stance, and begin arguing on a subtly different topic.
    • Whataboutery is a way of life for these users. EVEN IF you make your point to such a degree that it CANNOT POSSIBLY be refuted - they will 'whatabout' you down a different rabbit hole.
    • They employ a total double standard when it comes to evidence. You provide sane facts. They will (google frantically before) providing some dated article in support of their claims.
    • You have won this debate - Unfortunately the users in question have not noticed this. and they never will. Its analogous of a boxing match where one fighter is being repeatedly punched in the face. but at the end of every round, they throw their hands in the air in triumph.
    • All i can tell you is, that i resisted the urge to hit the ignore switch - but when i FINALLY DID - I felt better. The users in question become like white noise. Easily ignored.
    • I hope i havent caused offense folks. needless to say you know who's side im on - but please do consider tapping that ignore box.
    • Come back, and join the rest of us for some decent rules based debate, in good faith. Your contributions are needed.
    • with genuine respect and sincerity

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,425 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    The incident I referred to as an example, which is cited on the Wiki page for Azov is on page 18.

    49. Other documented cases appear to be linked to the military presence in densely populated civilian areas, such as towns near the contact line, and general impunity. A man with a mental disability was subject to cruel treatment, rape and other forms of sexual violence by eight to 10 members of the ‘Azov’ and ‘Donbas’ battalions in August-September 2014. The victim’s health subsequently deteriorated and he was

    34 hospitalized in a psychiatric hospital .

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Decent interview from a few days ago. You could say its old given the momentum in this conflict. But it discusses both military and political matters. The interviewer is decent too, i found his questioning was focused. nothing worse than an interviewer who takes over the conversation.

    Im still seeing nothing firm RE the 'china question' btw - its all speculation thus far. There was a statement from US state department earlier, but incredibly speculative.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭Detritus70


    Have you any concrete evidence that any soldiers implied in war crimes in 2014 are members of said battalion?

    Have you any proof that these men are active combatants right now?

    Have you any proof of current war crimes are being perpetrated by this battalion or it's members in the current conflict?

    I expect links to verified video evidence of same.

    "I'm not a Trump supporter, but..." is the new "I'm not a racist, but...".



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    You're all wasting your typing fingers.

    The West and the majority of the global community is aligned with Ukraine, simple as. Putin did that.

    Ukraine are the good guys. Russia, having invaded an independent Country, are the bad guys. Putin did that too.

    The Azov Batallion could ride into Donetsk and massacre 10 schools worth of children and they still wouldn't be scrutinised for war crimes because Ukraine are operating only on their own territory and that gives them a legitimacy to do whatever it takes to repel the invaders and the insurgents.

    Whatever. It. Takes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Wiki page ....

    So All the bluster about the azoz battalion and your evidence is a wiki and little or no mention in a UN report , despite it was claimed otherwise .

    Not sure what the game was but looks like a total loss for you



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,425 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    No. That’s not what I said. The incidence are included in the UN report I linked to.

    Also Amnesty International, US Congress Report etc.

    Look if you are convinced the Azov battalion don’t commit war crimes just as you are convinced there are no foreign fighters in their ranks that’s fine.

    And you are entirely correct, the separatists in east Ukraine are nasty mofos who are guilty of war crimes also. In reality both sides have committed war crimes. I believe Ukraine, Europe and the world would be a better, safer place without extremists like the Avoz battalion.

    We have seen a very similar situation before where weapons were pumped into a war zone in which extremists were a small percentage of the defenders. Those extremists went on to have a much bigger impact on all our lives over the past 20 years than we could ever have imagined.

    In hindsight was it in the wests best interest to help support the Mujahideen knowing that their ultimate enemy, the ones who they would eventually turn their weapons on was ourselves?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub




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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,425 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Ah yes, that little known law that you can’t be convicted for war crimes that happen in your own country.

    Almost as little known as the law that you can’t be convicted for murder if you cross the fingers of your left hand behind your back while you are doing it.

    Anwar Raslan is looking for a new defence team for his appeal. There’s a gig.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Care to post some evidence to include me in this list? You'll be looking for a while because there is none as I'm fully against the invasion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    Its truly horrific What Putin and Russia are inflicting on Ukraine- Putin must be the most evil person that ever set foot on this planet.

    Probably wont be much left of the planet by the times he finished !



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭Slideways


    That’s a bit melodramatic. He wouldn’t even feature in the top ten in the last hundred years. And I’m most certainly not defending him just calling out hysterics



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,965 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    How many will be killed before the West move In?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,425 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    The west aren’t going to move in. The only way to end this conflict is through a negotiated settlement. I don’t see how either side can achieve a military victory.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,904 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I would be interested in hearing Manic's or someone else with expertise's opinion on whether a military victory is possible, especially for the Ukrainians.

    I appreciate that there's a lot of variables, eg. does Belarussia get involved and if so, to what extent? Can and will Russia assert air superiority?

    But if we ignore the unknowns and just look at the land forces in play at the moment. No NATO and whatever Putin has committed to the Ukraine invasion so far. If Russia have lost momentum, I don't see how they can regain it with their current deployment.

    On the Ukrainian side, the supply of defensive arms is a given for the foreseeable future. But do they have any capability to launch an offensive against Russian held territory in Ukraine? Would they want to?

    Will morale on both sides become more important? Will summer weather favour Russia or Ukraine? Will the effect of sanctions in Russia have any impact at the front in Ukraine?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,342 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Well from this armchair general's point of view, history tells us plenty of times that while the War might be easy to win, the Peace less so - especially given sufficiently hostile locals resisting your presence. The resources required to keep that local population in check become increasingly expensive, sapping morale, money and goodwill back home. Sooner or later, unless you're making bank, it's not worth the constant stream of body-bags.

    It's transparent to anyone on the ground, and not trapped behind a severely curated media landscape, that Ukraine does not want Russia in its country; and making that point clear as day with every hamlet, town and city. The "nazi" argument is completely overblown, and thin gruel for anyone even trying to abstract the legitimacy of the invasion. At best/worst, they're no more relevant than the hundreds of US militias dotted about America, and scarcely representative from a legislative PoV, given the proof of elections. If anything, the longer Russia stays the more people might flood to these armed extremists - so even casually playing the "both sides" argument makes no sense when Russia is both direct and accidental enabler. Simply invading the country gives the groupings legitimacy

    So, the question becomes: at what point is it just not worth the hassle anymore for Putin - and what is the best case "I'm taking the ball home" scenario acceptable to everyone, that allows Russia to leave with "dignity" intact? Maybe if Kyiv falls, or Zelensky is captured/killed, the spine of the resistance will be broken, but I highly doubt it. There are no great indicators Ukranians are even remotely interested in capitulating en masse. Therefore the "special operations" get bogged down into whatever amounts to Russian Peacekeeping, perhaps needing exponentially more soldiers to keep Ukraine in check than was needed to invade the place. I can't see that playing well with Russians back home, or powerful figures aware of the truth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,425 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    It is almost unbelievable to think Russia could use chemical weapons in Syria, as you say and not only not face sanctions and ostracisation by the international community but host the World Cup in the middle of the conflict and not be boycotted by any national teams.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,166 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    How do you negotiate when Putin disgards agreements if it doesn't suit him? Whta value would it have? A short peace followed by a more organized invasion 12 months later.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Yeah, I said it at the start, Ukraine aren't looking for a victory, they just need to avoid defeat. The longer it drags out, the more other factors will force Russia to look for a way out. We are seeing growing dissent in Russia and them reaching out to China looks like desperation. Putin must running out of road.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Syrians are the "wrong" colour unfortunately.

    Theyve said from the start their goal is "demilitarization" and a neutral (non-NATO aligned) Ukraine, so Russia will just bomb them into submission effectively. We can all see that occupation is a non-runner, it likely is not the goal either. Everything done so far is to gain leverage for negotiations so that Zelensky will agree to terms (Crimea, LPR, DPR and no military alliances).



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    There is the precdent of the Second Finland War when the Soviet Union imposed a tough peace treaty on Finland but kept it as the Finns were essentially neutralised during the Cold War. It is a case of accepting that Russia is not an international rules based country but one government by, to quote Kissinger, self interest and Real-Politik.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,930 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Putin is very shrewd and knows the West well. He has had little problem openly using chemical weapons, whether it's on people in the UK, or on his own opposition. Assad, backed extensively by Russia, is estimated to have used chemical weapons around 70 times in Syria. There was no coherent strong response from the West in the same way there wasn't a strong response to the annexation of Crimea by Putin or his proxy war in S.E Ukraine. The UK PM has been forced to admit as such.

    Unfortunately for Putin all those weak responses seem to have bred too much confidence, and has caused him to make a massive miscalculation with his biggest move yet, his "final solution" for Ukraine. Russia is now in a very serious economic, political and military quagmire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In fairness all "world powers" are seen to be bound not by "international law" but self-interest and real-politik.

    Its why UN judgements only apply to tinpot african dictators, and the bigwigs can just ignore (or veto) them.

    Its in both countries interest to bring the war to a swift conclusion, because not only will Ukraine suffer huge loss of.. everything, but Russians are suffering big time from economic sanctions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,536 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Yes, I'm very wary of any 'negotiation' with Putin. It would be like one country 'negotiating' with Hitler in the middle of WW2 and asking him to withdraw his troops. Putin has shown his true colours and any agreement would hardly be worth the paper it was written on. What would be to stop him reinvading Ukraine in a year's time or going into Georgia or Moldova?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    What would be to stop him reinvading Ukraine in a year's time or going into Georgia or Moldova?

    Why would he? What motivation would there be to reinvade Ukraine after a settlement, or go into Georgia or Moldova?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I knew the gloating of Irish people over the UK in our acceptance of Ukrainian refugees was premature.

    There have already been 90k pledges to house refugees in the first day alone. So many pledges the website has crashed.

    I see that they are paying hosts 350 pounds a month tax free for this. As the Irish government just copy everything they do and don't like to look bad in comparison, I'm expecting there'll be a payment made to Irish host families too.




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,480 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    What motivation did he have to invade all of Ukraine this time including trying to capture Kyiv?

    He wanted to put in a puppet regime so that Ukraine would be a Russian colony like Belarus and they could take whatever resources they wanted and have a client state for military etc. The only reason he hasn't got that is because of the military opposition he faced in Ukraine.

    Any settlement that weakens Ukraine's ability rebuild and re-arm to resist future Russian aggression (e.g. limiting army or NATO supplying it or EU trade deals) is likely to be a truce not a peace settlement. All it does is give time for Russia to regroup and Ukraine to weaken.

    Russia has already broken multiple agreements with Ukraine never mind international law.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,970 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Why would he invade the Ukraine in 2022?


    Moldova is already sprinting towards any agreement that would give it western protection as quick as it can. Will Putin settle for that he likely sees it as a Russian province that is being unruly? He has made repeated plays for Georgia before.


    He has invaded before and is a large risk to do so again unless concrete protections are put in place.



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