Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I dont think i called you a nutter -but i may have been offhand in some other way, and i apologize sincerely if thats the case

and to be honest - i dont know what to say anymore. There is a growing part of me that wants to sit down with the Russians - point out their border on a map - and give them 48 hours to get every single solitary Russian military unit back on the right side of it - I simply am baffled by this.

All i can say is that in the past - horrendous things have been perpetrated against innocent civilians in the eastern block. And the west did Sweet FA to intervene - they didnt want to risk global nuclear war. Horrendous things are happening in North Korea - and we are actively doing nothing right now. It is not unprecedented by any means - and its all horrifying

But at this stage - i dont know. I do know what a shooting war with Russia could look like - and to say its not pretty - the understatement of the century. Its potentially civilization ending

Im just hoping things cool down - I posted my own hypothetical solution to this crisis on the politics thread (face saving for everyone etc)

But i dont know

Well I'm sure Kevin Costner will be at the top of the steps holding them off singlehandedly

Or am I getting my movies mixed up...

Reports of a Ukrainian night time counteroffensive on the outskirts of Kyiv, happening right now.

Imagine being a Russian conscript and a gang of these come running toward you.

PLEASE NOTE - Originally posted by Yours Truely On the Politics thread- thought i would post it here FYI - its my take on one possible way out of this - Posted earlier today - if i have broken a rule by re-submitting here please do not hesitate to say so - and accept my apologies - I didnt see a problem with placing it here for those reading this thread

Realism, Escalation, Pressure, and the Off Ramp

I think its clear that Russian invasion of the Ukraine is a disaster for us all. Its a disaster for Russia, the Ukraine, Europe, NATO, and the world. All parties have a stake in this, which means all have to be satisfied in some way. I will try now (for the first time in many years) to analyse the entire conflict, and offer what i consider to be a plausible way out.

I will begin by laying out the stakes for the above parties.

Russia. Vladimir Putin has spent the better part of 8 years 'prepping' for this conflict. By prepping, we could include indoctrination of his population with Anti Ukrainian rhetoric. We must also include the engagement of his military, in the vain hope that victory would be achieved with lightening speed. Arguably, he has tied his political fate to this (mis)adventure too. In terms of Realism, thanks to the actions of Putin, the regime faces jeopardy.

Ukraine. While the most obvious victim of this war, it is still appropriate to spell out the disaster in terms of cost. The Ukraine has lost effective control of large areas of its sovereign territory. 2 regions (prompted by Moscow) have declared independence. Russian military operations have destroyed large residential areas around several cities including (but not limited to) Kharkov, and Kyiv. Politically the Ukraine is receiving aid from around the globe, but said aid excludes the one form of help which would surely tip the balance in their favor. No one has offered to directly assist militarily in their defense.

Europe and NATO. The European Union, and to be frank the continent itself faces a war unlike anything we have seen since 1945. As a trading block, Russian hostility is aimed at the EU, albeit indirectly. One of the few 'corporeal' excuses offered by the Putin regime, is that the Ukraine must NOT join the EU. It should be noted that i only state this reason for the purposes of including it as a fact. Russian reasons verge on being preposterous

NATO in particular has been neutered outside its border. Statements from the organization have reiterated that NATO territory will be defended, at all costs. We have no reason to doubt this, and the fact that Russia has not attempted to test this, should serve as further proof. HOWEVER: Therein lies the problem. The Ukraine is not 'in NATO' - Another of Russia's 'corporeal' concerns is that Ukraine may join the defense block, and this they seek to deter.

The World. I dont view it as an understatement to suggest that the entire world has been involved in this conflict. Economically, the western world and its allies have sanctioned Russia, and this is no small thing. Gas prices, Oil trading, delivery logistics have all been affected. Further to this, the threat of Nuclear war has re-appeared for the first time since the cold war. State actors, organizations and multinational corporations, have been forced to 'chose sides' - fence sitting will become less and less comfortable as this situation continues to escalate.

The Russian Argument. It goes without saying that Russia is the aggressor in this situation. I and others have argued along this line from day one. Therefore in assessing the reasons we can divide them into REAL, and UNREAL perceived threats - i use the word 'perceived' in order to highlight the view of the Putin regime. I should wish to point out that, I do not SHARE this view;

• Ukraine joining NATO - While accepting that NATO is a defensive block, we can assume that Putin (arguably a relic of the cold war) views it in terms of the organization being the traditional enemy of Russia
• Ukraine Joining the EU - clear wish to not have the Ukraine join the EU, and to keep it in the Russian 'sphere of influence'
• Ukraine representing an existential Threat to Russia - an UNREAL perception not based in reality. And proven so by the conflict. Saying that the Ukraine is being very effective at fighting the Russian army is factual. Stating that the Ukraine could effectively defeat Russia, AS A WHOLE, is nonsensical.
• Ukraine being a new Fascistic state (neo-nazi) another UNREAL perception. I would go as far as to call it a manufactured crisis. Yes, there are some neo nazis in the Ukraine. NO, they do not have any real power within the Ukraine. The Ukraine is VERIFIABLY not a Neo Nazi state
• Ukrainian genocide of Ethnic Russians in the East I argue that this is also an UNREAL perception. While accepting that a proxy conflict has taken place in the East of Ukraine, between Ukraine and pro Russian forces, to call this a genocide is nonsense. AT MOST it is a 'Northern Irish Troubles' style conflict, which it should be noted: was triggered by Russian actions in 2014.
• Ukraine being an American/Western Proxy Arguably the most obvious UNREAL perceived issue RE this conflict. If it were true, the US/NATO would have acted. They have not, therefore nothing more to argue.

The Pressure.

Economic sanctions, pariah status, exclusion from various multinational organizations. Russia is facing a whirlwind of economic sanctions from the West and western Aligned states. We have also seen, extraordinarily, that multi national companies are voluntarily ceasing to deal with Russia. An exodus of western companies has taken place from within the Russian Federation. Economically Russia has retaliated by threatening to nationalize company property left inside Russia. Not since Cuba in the 1950s have we observed such actions.

Militarily, Russia has observed (with growing frustration) the west continue to arm the Ukrainian forces, with whom they are fighting. While they act to deter this support, it will seemingly continue. It could further escalate as, we have seen discussions around more modern equipment, take place over the last 72 hours.

The OFF RAMP need not be Mutually Exclusive to the Pressure

I posted days ago in IMHO/CA that we should not see support/pressure, and an off ramp as being mutually exclusive. I will use the same analogy i used then, to highlight this situation:

The football match: Russia is playing a football match which as far as they know, is a MUST WIN GAME. They began expecting victory to be easily achieved. To their astonishment, their opposition has retarded every attack they have made. they continue to play, becoming more and more desperate. The ref has cautioned the excesses of a few players; Their opponents are not attempting to win the game, their tactics involve beating every Russian push and preventing Russia from taking the lead. Frustration is now endemic among the Russian team. The crowd is entirely against Russia. The team stands alone

-Russian manager receives a call - RESULTS ELSEWHERE MEAN A DRAW WILL DO - the off ramp

The pressure, literally makes this off ramp even more attractive. The escalation of pressure will further sweeten this escape hatch, and will (hopefully~) make it the only rational course of action that remains open to Moscow

A Hypothetical Off Ramp

In my opinion, only two ACTUAL CORPOREAL concerns need be addressed. The EU Question, and NATO - we could add a further sweetener to a Russian Off Ramp - the removal of sanctions

• The EU. Russia has chosen to view the EU as hostile. I do not believe it need be viewed this way, and any hostility that now exists is a direct result of Russian actions. This hostility will, therefore, naturally subside (although not be forgotten) at the conclusion of hostilities.
• NATO - the meat and bones of the argument. Not that i grant any serious validity to Russia's position. We have already seen that the Ukrainian President has stated publicly that he has 're examined' the Ukrainian wish to join NATO. RESULT FOR Moscow folks

A peace plan seems possible

The Ukraine could formally adopt guaranteed Neutrality. Said position could be endorsed and guaranteed by both Russia, and NATO. After the Napoleonic era, Belgium was viewed as the 'backdoor that swung both ways', that is: A doorway to Paris for the Germans. And a Doorway to Berlin for the French. The great powers at the time agreed to mutually guarantee the Belgian position. Taking this as a valid analogy for the Ukraine an 'Armed Neutral Position', internationally recognized by two Nuclear armed blocs, seems a likely compromise.

• Russia gains guarantee that NATO will not station troops in the Ukraine
• NATO guarantees that the Ukraine will NOT be further molested by Moscow.
• The UN could observe and assure this neutral stance - if either bloc violates this - the other retains the right to intervene
• The Ukraine is an Armed Neutral, subject to inspection and interaction with both sides.
• The Ukraine CAN (and will) join the EU but be absolved from any eventual defense pact that may be incorporated into said union as a result of this conflict. They are 'Ireland on the Black Sea'

Combine to this, a few more possibilities:

• Crimea, Defacto under Russian control. A sweetener could be that we accept reality. DeJure Russian control of Crimea. A Sweetener for the Ukraine. Russia assists and compensates Ukrainian nationals that wish to relocate to Ukraine proper.
• The Eastern 'Statelets' - territory could be ceded to Russia (or a new proxy) - i suspect this to be inevitable but it need not be catastrophic. Similar to the above, Russia compensates Ukraine, in exchange for Ukrainian acceptance
• Russia compensates the Ukraine for the damage caused to its infrastructure - not a WAR GUILT CLAUSE PER SAY - history has demonstrated that this is counter productive. I would further add that the west should (in my view would) be content to play a large financial role with rebuilding the Ukraine.

Conclusion and a few notes

Russia is entirely in the wrong. My preferred outcome would be that the Regime of Putin Collapse. I suspect i am not alone on this, and it pains me to suggest that Russia gain anything from their actions. But the above does (in my view) offer something of a possible WAY OUT. It will end the blood shed, and allow us to step back from the brink. Realism recognizes the reality of geopolitical situations, it advocates the supreme importance of State Survival above all else. I have been posting repeatedly for days. My heart is with the Ukrainians. The above is just an outline of survival for all sides. Subsequent to a Russian withdrawal, if Putin should suffer an unfortunate accident, and or, have to relocate to a secure compound in Krasnoyarsk - i shed no tears. I hope thats clear.

A further note. There are several users who i am ignoring. I will continue to do so. I am happy to debate the above with all others. But if your argument equates to my ignorence of 'Nazis under the bed in Donbas' - i wont be taking that seriously at all.

As to citations: Happy to provide - its a long post folks - to be honest everything i have said is verifiable, and has links scattered throughout this thread. But if you take issue with any particular point - of course, raise your objection in good faith, and i will be happy to respond.

Finally - im not an international diplomat. and this is NOT MY THREAD - so please feel free to ignore - its just my take which has been fermenting for a week. After the back and forth of last night - i decided to put my money where my mouth is so - rip it to shreds if you will!

But all sides get something in this hypothetical

What Russia Gets:

• NON NATO aligned Ukraine
• No NATO forces in Ukraine
• An Internationally backed and observed agreement that the above status WILL NEVER CHANGE - #
• If it DID CHANGE, Russia 'Retain the right to intervene... etc'
• The wests 'Back door into Russia is locked from the inside'

What the West/Ukraine Gets

• Ukraine can join EU so-long-as they refrain from joining any possible military arm of said Union
• Ukraine is Armed But Neutral - its Sovereignty is FACTUALLY RECOGNIZED by both sides - under UN observation if necessary
• Both Blocs GUARANTEE this situation as status quo DeJure/DeFacto Sovereign Neutrality
• Should Russia 'Intervene' outside of agreed status (should this war 'happen again') NATO no longer restrained from Intervening.
• The Russian's 'Back door into Europe is locked from the outside'

There have been constant NATO surveillance flights over Romania, Poland, Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, and the Black Sea since this all began. I imagine they're feeding intelligence to the Ukrainians also; although how "real-time" it might be is hard to know.

An interesting BBC report for anyone unfamiliar with the topic:

Yes, and that's your personal analysis which you're entitled to. I don't think Putin is going to back off.

Out of my depth here, I really don't know much about Kasparov. He seems to want better for Russia is all I'd say.

But the problem with that is I don't think it's 'just him'. In the same way Hitlers Germany wasn't 'just him', although the documentaries love to focus on Hitler all the time, because we love to gasp at those Darth Vader type characters. So it's not like when Putin's time is up, it'll be all roses.

This is where I would totally disagree with you. I think it's crucial we don't look weak, give the impression well you (Putin) can get away with it if you have the military might and unrelenting desire. Everyone knows if Putin launched a nuclear warhead anywhere they are going to get one back.Why would would we hide this fact rhetorically? And the Russian people need to hear it, lest they think they are immune from destruction and continue to support their leader for what he's chosen to do.

My thought is that Russia is now on a par with Nazi Germany of old today. Not fascist but totalitarian. It was easy to say well after Germany invaded Poland then let's hope it ends there. It didn't. And wouldn't it have been better that the world acted more aggressively against Germany at that time, before it got completely out of control. In that time the Nazi regime had huge support from it's citizens. I don't believe the German people were idle bystanders then and I don't believe the Russian people are idle bystanders now either. Who ran all those concentration camps, if not the German people?

I hope you're right Wibbs, and I'm wrong. I hope sanctions work. See no signs of that yet. But I just have a disturbing hunch about what's going on that I can't shed, hence my opinion as stated.

I'm pretty sure that Zelensky isn't in hiding as such: his appearances are all in and around the Presidential buildings. He does move around a lot within the grounds however.

Also the general consensus on Twitter from various journalists seems to be that moving in and out of Kyiv is fairly safe via Southern routes and in fact there are steady streams of trains and vehicles doing just that.

So basically.

Putin isn’t happy.

So he has permission to kill pregnant women and kids.

Yeah good luck.

Well a compromise would be full alignment with EU membership (shadowing EU laws and Regs) - DeFacto membership without Dejure Recognition - I mean look if Ukraine retains its sovereignty, and assuming its not a 'puppet' when this conflict ends - if they wish to align their trading rules etc - their business surely

But look - like i said - not a diplomat - just a take - its all rather depressing - i just tried to come up with something of an off ramp

Where - in my post - did you see - the above?

Its a genuine question - im fairly sure i remained conscious when i typed it and - i dont recall making such a statement

Come on - seriously????? You want to make Putin pay - I GET IT - SO DO I - but i also want the war to end - and i tried -

Fiercely disingenuous post @Jinglejangle69 -

An amusing way to call Putin's bluff. In actuality he gets nothing out of that deal (which I am not opposed to).

If we 'take him at his word' (try not to laugh) he does get something - some version of this could definitely call his bluff

If he refused something similar - he may as well just declare himself TSAR and be done with it -

Just my thoughts anyway

Interesting reports that suggest that many employees at the state TV channels are said to be deeply unhappy about promoting Putin's invasion of Ukraine and lying to the public about it. It seems Marina's one woman protest was far from going against the mood in the channels and may well have reflected common disquiet (I guess the issue here is that every single person at the channels knows that the broadcasts are all lies and Kremlin sponsored propaganda).