Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The spare stock is all in the wrong places, west of Ireland and dead rural towns instead the major cities and their commuter belts where the demand is.

are those houses truly habitable, theres physically fine vacant houses vacant near me, and they most certainly aint habitable? yes many people are hoarding land and property, polices have been favoring this type of behavior, including taxation....

there is not plenty of stock in the country, we need to be building 30k+ units per year, for the foreseeable, in order to keep up with demand, these figures come from respected commentators and analyst's

More like a hoarding crisis.

David McWilliams with a timely reminder in the IT today how our economic problems began before the Russia Ukraine crisis as people are already starting to forget that we had high official inflation pre-crisis from phenomenal government spending during covid and even before covid the cost of living we all felt was rising even if the CPI gaslighted us, in particular with respect to housing costs that are astronomical and rising at a frighteningly unsustainable velocity. And he also mentions again how this is entirely a manufactured housing crisis.

The message is just not hitting home to our politicians that our economy is literally teetering on the brink because of the housing crisis; all of the new jobs being announced quite simply won't happen as there is practically nothing at all for these workers to rent. And this is not hyperbolic. The need to put the housing crisis on par with COVID is not an exaggeration and it is a race against time or else we'll be caught with our pants down when the tide shifts.

Edit: what I mean by the tide shifting is that the corporate tax boat will pull away a little or a lot and then we won't have that GDP inflating cash cow to enable us take loans from the capital markets and then we will be stuck with a bloated public expenditure which stifles investment in areas such as education, infrastructure, housing, childcare - all of these areas of course need cash thrown at them right now even if that cash amounted to the billions upon billions borrowed during covid, investment in these areas is essential.

Exactly the price is being paid by the good time seeking immigrants who are lured in to the country with good jobs only to find out they'll never get a foothold here to settle and raise a family as they're just being used for their PRSI and corporate tax paying employers who need to justify their tax presence here. As well as those young enough to not have had a part in the mania pre-08. But this is where the clash is going to happen; further decay of the middle classes or house prices and rents correct materially with supply increasing significantly.

Planning is widely cited as a reason for the Intel decision to not further expand in Ireland. The decision to build its megaplant in Germany has been widely acknowledged as a massive blow to Ireland Inc and its future expansion plans in the country.

While the IDA have made statements about the housing situation and how our "competitiveness" is a big threat to continued high levels of FDI, I personally think the housing situation is a big reason that Intel did not choose Ireland for its big expansion.

As far back as 2016, Intel spoke of a rental crisis in Cork which would impact future growth there. Fast forward 6 years and the rental crisis is catastrophic by comparison to 2016 when it was already bad. I don't think Intel will be the last to hit pause on massive investment in Ireland, particularly with companies who don't pay their employees €100k+ on average and it is clear that supporting the current levels of house prices and rents is to directly say no to FDI funded jobs into the country.

In terms of the the decision of building a new fab, this would have been a factor but not the main one. Had the Oranmore site been seriously in the running, the Galway planning scheme could have been amended to accommodate such a large scale development given the time frames involved. Also the Govt can always legislate for a special development zone if they were serious about getting this project, not only for the development itself, but all the supporting infrastructure including housing.

I'm reliably informed that our energy infrastructure and access to a reliable electricity supply in the long term was the biggest concern amongst other things.

This was also a highly sough after project and the governments of rival countries in the running (Germany, Italy, Poland & Spain) offered significant incentives to attract the new fab. The Irish Govt may have really missed an opportunity here, but they may have also perhaps been reliably informed that they were never really in the hunt.

There was a development somewhere round maynooth that was going to be sold for entirely sold for rentals last year.

There was loud political and media mayhem over it. Howling outrage for a fortnight at least. The full works on social media.

I knew at the time that a lot of rentals would be needed for the latest intel project so the whole thing left open mouthed at the stupidity of it all.

Developers will access funds wherever they can. With our "left leaning" culture of generous welfare State, refusal to evict non paying mortgage holders, non paying renters both private and social.

The States refusal to deal with problem social tenants and the areas that are socially destroyed by the minority of individuals. What/how exactly do you suggest we do to resolve or at least to improve the housing situation.

If society thought the recent past was hard economicly (especially last two years and covid) we are all in for a world of tough times over the next three to fives years of severe austerity/reduced spending and increased taxes.

I agree if supply increases price decreases. This is economics 101. But it won't happen I am not political but due to bad political decisions of the past we are doomed to make more in the future.

Because of the housing crisis Sinn Fein are forcing the Govts hand as they fear Sinn Fein and their main topic of housing. The Govt will promise "housing for all" ironically to the cost of those supplying the income financing the "housing for all plan".

The property market should be allowed find its equilibrium and those unable/unwilling to house themselves should not be part of the "market" rather should be housed in State built and State owned property.

It is sad to say I fear this will never happen. I hope I am proven wrong.

It’s good to see it being introduced but I am sceptical that it will work….bet you their will be to many loopholes for it to be effective.

More houses won't necessarily reduce prices, its an excess of supply that might reduce prices a bit, we are still way off building enough houses to meet the demand that is there at the moment so even if we built 300% more houses in the right places this year and next year that isn't going to reduce prices any time soon.

Honestly with material costs skyrocketing new houses are going to keep getting more expensive and they will keep 2nd hand prices up too as people who can't afford the new 3 bed semi that went from 310 to 340 will have to buy 2nd hand.

While I'm not familiar with the chip manufacturing business - that's a damning indictment of absolute governmental mismanagement if true.

Whenever anyone talks about recession now they expect it to be as bad as 08 with banks collapsing but that is highly unlikely to happen. If the exact same scenario played out as 08 the banks wouldn’t collapse today or need to be bailed out by the government.

There have been plenty of recession in Ireland where property values haven’t fallen so it’s not guaranteed.