Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I wouldn't be quick to equate homelessness to the housing crisis

Insane. Thats an extra 4% to our population immediately.

Genuinely, where are we supposed to fit 200,000 extra people? Infrastructure, public transport, housing, schools, healthcare??

Long time lurker on here. Although I've posted a few times.

Put a booking deposit on a new build a few weeks ago. €330k, it's a 3 bed semi. Around 109sqm.

It's going to be A2 rated and it will have PV Solar Panels which will heat the water and provide electricity.

However the heating system will be a highly efficient condenser gas boiler. I had thought these weren't allowed anymore but apparently they are if it's a condenser boiler.

Would a heat pump be better or is it much of a muchness?

I was originally looking at second hand houses but the prices were getting close to new builds and there are a few new build developments in or around my town (and the next town over) and with the HTB and lower interest rates for a new build I thought the new build was the best decision.

I'm a Property Solicitor by trade but I'm working as an In-House Lawyer now. Currently my Solicitors are raising pre-contract enquiries but I'd say I will have to sign the contracts in the next few weeks. Have written loan offer too but the property is not due to be ready until Q4 this year so the loan offer will have to be reissued most likely. The Building Agreement/Contract will have the Law Society's usual subject to loan clause in it anyway so should be ok in that regard.

Suits me that the property is not ready for a few months anyway as I can save more towards things like flooring, furniture etc.

Happy to have the booking deposit paid and hopefully it all goes well from here.

Funnily enough in my area some of the second hand 3 bed semis I have looked at recently and bid on seems to have fallen apart as I have had estate agents ring me to see if I want to increase my previous bid as the sale agreed price purchaser has pulled out. Example is second hand houses having successful bids well over 300k, just an average C rated BER 90sqm house, then weeks later estate agent would call and ask if I want to increase my bid from weeks ago before they re-advertise. So I wonder are purchasers bidding high then later realising that these prices are crazy.

Exactly, there is a certain percentage that will always be homeless for various reasons such as chronic drug/alcohol abuse.

Middle income tax payer is going to get rode so hard on this. It will be so bad you'll thing the rogering youve been getting up to now was just foreplay.

80k to 200k in 2 weeks. If that trend continues we will have a serious problem here with housing. The council will be looking to snap up any house it can get. New private estates will surely have more than the standard 10% social requirement.

We have one of the highest birth rates in Europe

Another reminder about the notes in the first post.

Actual homelessness is a mental health/addiction issue, not a lack of housing issue for me. It does not mean however that we do not have a catastrophic housing crisis (i.e. unaffordable and undersupplied housing).

As of right now, 551 ads for rentals in Dublin city. Truly we are at breaking point. To say there is no where to rent is somehow becoming a fact; nothing at all to rent in our capital city of Ireland. It's mental. And this is in the context of WFH just starting to end and new hires slowly starting to arrive into the country. Brace yourselves for an economic squeeze before the pressure causes an economic fallout.

I told you about the refugee crisis coming out of the Ukraine when it kicked off at that stage I thought we couldn't take 20k people in. I have argued that we have had a net influx of migrants year on year since 2014 and we are the most fertile country in the world and people are living longer, we stopped building for a decade and are still not building enough to cover off the population increase let alone what will be needed for births vs deaths and migration. People need to accept that we are not building enough houses another 200k people from the Ukraine alone prices are going up for at least another 5 years at this stage. There will need to be a world war to cause the kind of panic that would see a shift in the supply and demand issues.

Maybe this is just me but has anybody else noticed a flood of additional houses that are up for auction soon and others that are in need of some moderate repairs on the likes of Daft over the past week or two?

I don't have real stats or anything but I've been browsing Daft a good bit over the past two months and over the weekend, I noticed a lot of what I think are additional houses up there.

Actually, the stats I can find are there was 13,040 properties for sale in Ireland on January 5th. That's up to 13,578 today. About 350 additional properties have been added since the start of March.

Thanks. Yeah I thought the heat pump would be better alright but I suppose the gas isn't a deal breaker. Plus I can always upgrade to a heat pump down the line if really required. Glad to know gas in a new build shouldn't have to be on all the time to keep warm.

the 13k includes sites and other odds and ends.

There are around 10.8k of houses and apartments for sale on Daft and during the past week there has been a small uptick in houses and apartments for sale in Ireland. Around 300 extra properties advertised.

Fear could also be driving sentiment to some degree in a couple of ways.

People considering selling may have concerns of the potential for an econoimic downturn or recession in the near term, thereby limiting future price growth. Hence they may think this could be the last opportunity to get the maximum selling price, in turn increasing supply.

Fear can also incentivise sellers who have been holding out, as they react to seeing more properties come to market worried about increased competition.

Either way, more properties coming to market is a good thing.

I'm definately sensing we may be at the beginning of a change in market sentiment. To be clear - Im not suggesting a buyers market anytime soon. But we could be heading in the direction of a somewhat more normalised market.

The green shoots are there, but there is a long way to go.

America yeild curves beginning to invert. I'd personally keep an eye on the 10 and 30 year rates and when the invert possibly June/July a recession will follow in 10-18 months. Yeild curve inversions have been a key indicator of recessions the last 80 years. If we get a recession in America, Europe with this war ongoing and its dependency on Russia could face a worse time of it. Growth slows consumer spending slows, job openings slows, layoff start, insolvencies start all the while interest rates will rise to fight inflation that will only most probably fall when a recession dampens demand. I would love to know how this will affect housing but its too f**ked up at the minute to say.

I work in the construction sector mainly building materials supplies and demand is slowly falling, especially since cement went up in Febuary.

With what happened Roadbridge most companies are tightening their credit ie only giving the big boys 1 month credit as opposed to 3 months (trust me this is happening).

All this leads to a negative outlook on supply side, I do believe there will be a slowdown in house building as costs are too high at the minute and new builds are totally unaffordable.

All in all this housing crisis is an absolute disaster.