Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Any argument is null and void rents or mortgage a mortgage wins hands down as a payment off the mortgage will have a % going off a bill on something you own as apposed to paying someone elses mortgage.

I thought doing that was supposed to have been made illegal years ago. So much for enforcement..

So if your in the middle and rent your in a vice grips. Is their tunnel vision on the other side. Do homeowners not see that higher property prices are a big part of why they are squeezed. It does look a bit like the parish pump coming down to domestic level

Or is tunnel vision only suffered by left leaning voters

The USD debasement will potentially happen if the Russian crisis continues. This war and COVID supply chain issues have shown that the East makes things that the West needs to thrive (ie oil, gas, food, tech) so without the East, the West via its race to the bottom economics and outsourcing of manufacturing in the name of "growth" is now terribly exposed to the risk that the East pulls the plug on us. We have stopped making the things we consume and our whole economic model is dependent on an "under class" of cheap Eastern workers to fund our lifestyles.

Russia turning off the gas would have immediate, severe ramifications for our economy in the EU, on a scale that many of us cannot even imagine. China restricting exports of its consumer tech to the West and again we would shut down. While we have been resting on our laurels in the West, the East has decided that extracting, manufacturing and growing physical goods is how to make yourself into a superpower and given the population growth and climate issues the world is facing, being able to produce the items that you use in your life yourself is far better than having to rely on imports to obtain these goods.

But what has this got to do with the Irish housing market? The trends in the Irish housing market are mirroring other Western housing markets; labour shortages, high construction costs, muted supply and excessive demand; all likely driven by similar issues across Western economies. This applies to mean that, quite simply, Ireland's housing market is not its own little bubble which could withstand a shock more than other Western countries and issues in other Western countries with their housing markets and we will likely have the same issue. Geopolitical stability is now no longer a given, with the West, or to be precise, the working man in the West, has a lot to lose and fairly rapidly from any further escalation in sanctions or conflict with the East given our dependence on them for our daily goods.

What this will probably mean is for more inflation, which would be the result of supply shocks caused by conflict with the East and therefore central banks will have to stop printing money as it will drive inflation higher. Arguably they have already fanned the flames too much and we will see high inflation through this year which will reduce disposable income in people's pockets, leading to less cash available to spend on housing, clothes, food, recreation etc. It is rather pathetic that in the West, when there is a conflict impacting food and energy, we don't look at shifting our food and energy producing operations closer to home as the number one priority. Instead we look to our financial regulators to print money or raise or lower rates; and worry about our housing market crashing (which would be a good thing) rather than how we will meet our energy needs or put food on the table. What good are financial instruments or military weapons if we can't feed ourselves or meet our energy needs?

Only speculators see rising prices as a good thing - almost everyone else realises they are bad.

However in the context of "squeezed middle", you cannot blame property prices on that. Property prices/rents are one factor of many that affects the cost of living in this country & lack of benefit for the squeezed middle

I should be all over the SF bandwagon as a first time buyer in my 30s and a decent job getting screwed from all angles but that Prime Time debate with Eoin O Broin showed they have no actual realistic plans to solve the crisis, it should a slam dunk for them jsut to have a plan with a few key changes they are promising if in power but they are all about sound bites, complaining and magic money trees involving massive extra government borrowing.

If they get in all I see is the demand for social housing skyrocketing and the tax paying middle being even more screwed over especially when they get rid of HTB

"*Income is calculated as Gross Disposable Income divided by the population"

Straight off the bat thats a terrible metric - a mean average for disposable income. Are disposable incomes really ~15% higher now than in peak boomtime? I doubt it

The market is responding to those rent prices, of course, knowing that there is so many supply suppression tools to maintain those high prices and demand aided by the governments crazy social housing policy

That's exactly the fcuking problem Mr o brien

Economist mehole

Let’s not forget that most women were forced to give up work once they got married…..It was very different times

at the time the yield on the 10 year bond was negative with bond holders paying the gov for the loan as opposed to now with the government paying the bond holders …it’s now up at 1.10% and will be going higher in the coming months

A wage/inflation spiral would leave workers worse off and that is why they are asking for restraint on wage increases.

wages increase 10% = house prices rise by at least 10%…… weekly shop goes up more than 10%…..worker ends up with less disposable income…..so it’s not about which side of the bread is buttered

Mehole is the taoiseach :)

Hence the policies

The government did act and borrowed that is why they have a surplus of cash now and money available for the housing for all policies. Whether you agree or disagree with the policies they are spending record levels in an attempt to resolve the housing shortage.

If they borrowed any more the cash would be sitting there loosing value as inflation eats away it because they wouldn’t be able to spend it due to constraints on the number of houses that can be built (I.e no of builders)

As I said people will agree or disagree with the policies. I am not defending them or saying that it is the best use of resources... I am just pointing out that they did use opportunity of negative rates to try and address the housing issue.

I just hope that if there is a recession in the coming months that the government step in and build in order to retain the building workforce so that they are available to build from the minute any recession ends so that we don't end up in a situation where they all retrain for other work like after the '08 crash which has been one of the biggest contributing factors to the shortage of supply we have seen over the past 6/7 years.