Russian build up along Ukraine

That’s not possible, the Russians have sealed off the Sea of Azov under the bridge they built to connect Crimea and have already hit at least three foreign ships and forced one ship into a minefield at Odessa to try and clear it (and that was before they let themselves be lured into losing a corvette). They aren’t letting civilians out, it’s not Russian tactics.

As for CWs, technically they are meant to have destroyed their stocks and won’t be able to use Syria as an excuse this time, but given the US is now reporting circa 5-6k dead and potentially 3 times that wounded for Russian forces, the coming season of mud and importantly the demobilisation of the conscripts by the end of the month it’s possible.

Putin's bridge to Crimea is high enough for standard ships to pass through. if it is blocked it can be unblocked. The Ukrainians managed to get a naval vessel out to the approaches of Odessa and put a round in a RU vessel which withdrew. The Ukrainians still hold Odessa. This is developing into a war of attrition which has already caused the Ru to commit most of their in theatre assets, believed to be 95% of available formations, meaning he has no reserve and those not yet committed are likely to be in the wrong place to be effective. He may have to do something spectacular and illegal.

I never said it couldn't be sailed under, I said it is blocked by the Russians. Since they aren't willing to allow civilians out, what exactly do you suggest, use of force? He's already done illegal things, he's been doing it for years and getting away with it, and since NATO isn't going to attack Russia he knows he has a window if he wants.

Shelled or mined. At this stage I wouldn't trust Russia with any civilian corridor anywhere, add in the gross incompetence of the Russian Navy as you say it has the potential to go extremely wrong with a lot of innocent people dying, not that they aren't already sadly.

There’s no question that it’s a war, but legally (for Russia) Conscripts aren’t meant to be deployed for foreign operations and can’t be used for 6 months after conscription. Putin already said they weren’t in Ukraine and then there MOD had to admit they were. If they don’t demobilise at the end of the month there will be hell to pay even for Putin.

Remember if the US figures are right they’ve taken nearly as many dead in two weeks as the US took in 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and nearly 2/3 of what the ussr took in 10 years in Afghanistan.

There have been rumours about that alright, not sure if any of them have been captured (which is saying something given the scale of equipment that is being taken by Ukrainians), but yeah sooner or later families are going to find out about their sons.

Did you see how quickly that tank column retreated yesterday? Clearly everyone has been on the take in the Russian supply chain/military since the fall of the USSR, add in the appalling treatment of their conscripts and it’s not a huge surprise.

At this juncture most western countries are overburdened by consequences and are differing between what needs to be done and what they can usefully do without drawing retaliation from RU. With growing indiscriminate actions perhaps some redline prohibitions should be announced by those giving current support to Ukraine. For instance if the RU attack a convoy coming in from Poland that the west responds by eliminating the source of fire. With continuing attrition and change of Ru tactics some attempt must be made to shift initiative and lay out consequences for Putin. The overall silence of the USA is worrying together with nobody in charge of overall response which need to be made on a daily basis.

How exactly would he even be in position to attack it?

NATO is being very careful about what military equipment they are sending, they aren’t going to give Drones of such capability, and given that such drones aren’t in Ukrainian service, they would need NATO service people as well.

While the Ukrainian Air Force is still combat capable, they are at what half strength, such a mission to an area that Russia has held for 8 years would need a significant use of those that are left and likely heavy losses they can’t replace.

The Russians just lost one of their LSTs in one of the occupied Ukrainian ports, Ukraine is claiming they hit it with SRBMs, but given Russian performance this could just as easily been a self inflicted wound. Either way another hit to the Russians, meanwhile most suggestions now are that their units in the North have lost all ability to advance and have gone on the defensive with reports of new advances from Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.

The Russians are now up to 7 dead generals, and more telling for the state of the Russian army, a Colonel was killed by his own unit after they took heavy losses. They ran him over with a tank…

In the latest twist and on foot of the increasing evidence of widespread Russian crimes against civilians (though to be fair there’s footage coming out suggesting Russian pows are being killed by Ukrainian units over the last few days), the US Senate has passed a new Lend Lease Act for Ukraine and for Eastern European NATO members for at least two years. It still has to pass the House but could have huge impact on those nations buying new military hardware.

Yep, like everything else so far the Russian military has seriously exposed itself, and the Russians don’t have the ability to replace their losses.