Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Six weeks overseas won't be a problem but six months almost certainly will.

You probably could get around it but I am sure contacts of employment and ethics policies would be updated to make it an instant dismissible offence.

I remember before covid when I was working remote and traveling in a different country to where I was based there was a long list of tasks that I was unable to carry out…The most important one was not being able to talk or reply to customer emails that involved any sales or quotes as it would have lead to a multiple regulatory breach due to not having a regulatory license to sell from the country I was in and that was even for one day or just passing through for a few hours.

One question I saw was being discussed online today was in relation to inflation and, specifically, what the central banks can do to calm it without popping the housing market bubble.

There seems to be a belief that inflation is going to get worse before it gets better and that the central banks will have to act to try to calm the situation. Typically, in an inflation environment, they would attempt to control inflation via setting of market interest rates.

Right now is the most intense inflationary environment we have found ourselves in for a long time, so the perception would be that central banks really need to act to ensure price stability before things escalate further. The mandate of the ECB is to keep inflation low in order to ensure price stability.

Therefore, from what I gather, it appears almost guaranteed that rates will rise more than a little over the coming months which, as we know, inversely correlates to the asset bubble growth, meaning that asset prices correct.

To lock in a low for long mortgage interest rate or sit on the fence and not buy something that could drop in price within a few months or just buy something to be out of the rental game and the house hunting game, these are the big questions to consider.

I don't think the working environment is a fraction as unionised as back in the 70s 80s. Nowadays unions are watered down or else non existent especially in American Multinationals. Wages are increasing for higher paid in demand jobs but on average they are not increasing that much. I dont see wages increases coming close to what the Inflation rates is.

I really do believe when higher ates kick they will drop the market by 25%. I don't see houses dropping off anymore that that I could be wrong though.

the growing anger over such polices is now probably at a sufficient level, that more and more unpredictability's will continue, including in election outcomes, we could very well be coming to some sort of conclusion of these global policies, globalisation, call it what you will, i suspect this is where we re at, only thing is, we dont know what happens next, lets hope it doesnt become more violent and destructive!

I think there will be a slight contraction in house prices this year. There is a few reason for this. New builds will stabilise but secondhand may drop off the present peak by 5-15%.

The reasons are that there seems to be movement on selling some secondhand stock for various reason.

Accidental landlords will continue to divest properties that were in negative equity but now are back to at least original values. Because I'd regulations some smaller landlord will sell up. Houses that would previously be rented, a mother or father who's spouse is deceased moving in with a son or daughter often previously rented the house. There is no appetite now for that and strong house values make selling more attractive.

Stock of houses who's sale was held up by COVID will come online. In larger towns and villages the tendancy now that is to move on vacant premises as prices are good.

Interest rates and inflation will limit the ability to borrow. There is resistance to price increases.

However do not expect a collapse. IMO the correction will be more a levelling of prices than a collapse. 5-10% is my guess and it will be a 12-18 month window.

The West has more to lose from war than gain. My main reason for this is because we just don't make anything that we need anymore, we rely on the East for physical goods like tech, energy and even food. A war would likely be with the East and therefore we would be at a risk of having food, energy and tech issues which are fundamental to our daily lives. Talk of a war is just bluster, likely from a disasterous Democratic presidency I t he US desperate to deflect before the midterms, and the fact remains that the Ukranian crisis is just a localised conflict in Eastern Ukraine, with Russia now stating that it is no longer advancing (they could be lying or they could be hiding the fact they are losing so have decided to set their line in the sand a lot closer than originally planned).

There are numerous black swans hovering around in the global skies but Irish populism will slice them all down and cause issues in Ireland more than any of the global events will in the medium term. SF and friends is what I am specifically referring to.

As a somewhat separate point, in addition to the €300 energy credit and income tax cuts, the government are considering dropping the VAT rate to 9%. Of relevance to property for me is that this is another cost which will make it harder for the government to justify pumping money into the property market as the alternative expenditures, food and energy, are more fundamental to our lives than high housing costs.

The Ukrainian war is not just ‘a localised conflict in eastern Ukraine’. The world is at war with Russia on an economic footing and it has wide and far reaching consequences that will be felt for years to come. Just because the rest of the world is not sending troops into Ukrainian doesn’t make it a localised conflict.

Front page of farmers journal 20/11/2021 before any invasion. In fact Irealnd sent representatives over to Europe around this time to discuss the fertiliser cost. The reply from Europe at the time was that the problem was transitory and it would sort itself out over 8-10 months and that the farmer would just have to deal with it. I **** you knot. I really have no faith in the European policy makers atall there out of touch.

And it would have been an 8-10 month issue except the Ukraine/Russian problem. European manufacturers had started to produce again. The problem w is that the Ukraine/Russia conflict disrupted the supply to Europe. As well because it is likely that Ukraine grain harvest may only be 50-60% of normal this year this has put on pressure to plant more grains in Europe.

It was expect that fertilizer would have drop back in late April/May to 500/ton average it about 100/ton ( 20%) above a rolling 5 year average or about 10% above previous peaks

Talk about a poor analysis.tgr effects are felt world wide. Sanctions on Russia are getting more and more severe. It's unknown what will be the long term problems for Russia. The EU intends to wean itself off Russian gas not just in the medium term but in the short term now.

Germany will recommission its nuclear plants. We probably will build one ourselves. Problem for Putin now is how he exits the process. 40-50% of Ukrainian migrants will not return home for 2-3 years.

I dont totally agree with that, price of fertiliser may have came down inn 8-10 months like you say but the crop grown using fertiliser at 250% higher prices was always going to be passed on through the food chain giving food price inflation meaning the ECB saying inflation was transitory was utter crap they new this would happen in November and they new China supply issues were not resolved yet they still said it was transitory

Attended another viewing today - queues of people outside waiting to get in.

I realise this is nothing new and was the case pre-covid; however, one thing that is no abundantly clear is the number of older couples who are looking to downsize and buying smaller properties.

I am no way being ageist but again, this does not help young couples/single people on low/middle or even high incomes. These people are technically cash buyers and having your mortgage approval/cash deposit means absolutely nothing now.

It’s beyond deflating at this point

Working and saving the last 10 years to buy my first place. Didn’t get any gift money, no rich parents just hard work and going to viewings is becoming depressing.

Myself and partner went to that viewing this morning, we both came away so deflated. May aswell just give up it’s pointless

And a lot of housing stock hasn't been touched since 70s-80s.

Bought for 15-30k, now being sold for 380-450k, and very little changed (maybe the windows are from the 90s).

You've worked and scrounged for years, and you're looking at handing it all over for such properties, meanwhile mammy gets her forever home, in prime working location, for pittance along with 6-10k cheque saying "furnish it".

Makes me sick.