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Is it time to join Nato

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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Neutrality looks like it could be a part of the solution here.





  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    It won't be "neutrality" as we know it over here! If an agreement is reached, cannot see Ukraine will accept being de-fanged by Russia (neutral + a token military, ala Ireland).

    If anything they will want to get the best of equipment they can get from the West/whoever else will sell it to them and will also have a big standing army + a national service of some sort i.e. similar to the others bordering Russia to the West in the EU that have a great mistrust of + fear of it based on unpleasant history.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Our neutrality should have a strong properly resourced defence force too, had the power swap not hollowed them out with cuts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes, well hopefully we'll never need likes of what Ukraine might have call for.

    In fairness to politicial system here it is generally responsive to public opinion and policy of not spending any money on defence forces and letting them rot is what electorate wanted (if they thought about it at all) I would judge. Silence gives consent. The reaction when or if the govt. starts trying to give them a lot more funds will be interesting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Handy excuse when you need an excuse.

    The 'system' isn't very responsive to health and housing needs now is it?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Look it, will just leave it there if you want to soap box about the evils of the "power swap" in the state (assume you mean FFG) and health + housing crises which have nothing to do with Irish defence/security policy or underfunding of Irish Defence forces imo. I have not noticed any major public or media outcry for more resources for them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well you tried to state that an underfunded defence force was the people's fault.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Added this in an edit to above but repeating...I have not observed any major public or media outcry for more resources for them over last decade or so (or any other group arguing for it apart possibly from the army itself).

    It would begin there for our politicians, otherwise they won't care (unfortunately I suppose). edit: I'm being agnostic about what party the politicians are from here. On health and housing there is that pressure at least, regardless of politicians/administrators failures to actually resolve the problems.

    edit again: I should say I did not mean to put all the blame for the state of the defence forces on the public/electorate. Sometimes politicians have to try and take a lead on an issue, even if it is not on public's radar and even if expenditure of money on it might be unpopular.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Unionists threatening to target Irish government buildings. I wonder if all the lads chomping at the bit to join NATO are as concerned about the threat in our own country? We should be preparing for a fractious security situation in Ireland and possible interference in Irish affairs from GB in the event of a Border Poll and/or Unification of our country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Should have been preparing for it 20 years ago.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Looks like the concept of 'neutrality' is going to be valuable again. FG will be gutted.




  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭Freight bandit


    You would have to be extremely naive not to think an EU army is on the cards..of course the yes side in the Lisbon referendum were partial to the oul lies also..."vote yes for jobs!"

    our political class think a referendum on our neutrality is unnecessary....

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40839860.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,763 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Naivety is one thing, exaggeration is another. It remains to be seen how things will pan out but there are many degrees of things before the situation reaches one of a full-blown EU Army. It does not seem unimaginable that we will see a push for a more integrated and committed common defence policy for Europe, but that can take on many guises and has to go through the governance channels before its final form is ever realised.

    My guess at present is that it will be something that doesn't even go as far as things like the NATO commitments on declarations of war (noting, by the way, that the promulgators of the term "EU Army" in media and commentary never seem to apply the term "NATO Army" as any suggestion of sovereignty impingements on NATO countries). It may simply take the form of a pact to assist the defence of EU external borders (i e. the Eastern borders) and commitment by member states to greater financial and resource contribution to that end. It may not even require the shedding of Irish neutrality, even if neutrality is a bit of a Get Out Clause from what is clearly our unequivocal alignment with the NATO nations and the Western order.

    In my opinion though, all the talk of military defence is obfuscating what should be the real focus of our efforts in this century: energy. Because while we can talk about future wars and how we address them, it seems inevitable that the worst of those wars will centre around the race for resources. We as a country should not be too het up over neutrality, but rather being prepared for the day when our energy providers either run dry or become hostile.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,688 ✭✭✭Economics101


    Whatever about joining NATO, Paul Murphy, and other PBP types are sponsoring a Neutrality Bill which would further stymie any developments in that area. Given the existing legal and constitutional provisions it's pure grandstanding.

    The Irish Times has the inevitable photo of these clowns demonstrating outside the Dail, supported (of course) by those dedicated opportunists in Sinn Fein. What I found really annoying was that they were joined by Ivana Bacik. I used to give Labour a 2nd or 3rd preference vote, but not if they are now lead by a useful idiot.



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    I think if Ukraine does accept neutrality (with security guarantees) as seems to be developing between the 2 countries now then the question is - who will supply the security guarantees? I do not think that Nato will be acceptable to Russia - so that only leaves a European army.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Agree with other response to you that an "EU army" is a long way off yet. Let's face it though...the member states' response to current crisis in Ukraine would be severely lacking without alot of US and UK support which doesn't seem ideal at all.

    We need better coordination at EU level between the member states so they can act more coherently in policy related to external powers (like Russia). We need changes so they are not duplicating so much stuff in military procurement and R&D etc. and end up getting less than sum of parts in total, or having to go to the US or others for the weapons they need. We need to know if a member (incl. us unlikely as we believe this to be) is attacked by an aggressor, the others will aid them and will have the tools (incl. military ones) ready to do this quickly and well as a collective + won't be fumbling about in chaos to put together some response.

    "Yes for jobs" was fair IMO. Voting "No" once again was going to create some kind of crisis around our continuing EU membership and possibly even end up with an "Irexit" (before coining of the term) of some description. Not good for economic stability and hence, jobs IMO.

    "No" to avoid this imagined EU army, posters of soldiers in scary NBC gear and suggestion of people press ganged into the Euro-corps any day post voting yes (13 years later, no sign of it as yet) was a whole other level of distortion and shameless fear mongering vs the "Yes for jobs" slogan.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭Freight bandit


    Was fair? At a time Ireland was in the economic doldrums , I'd say it what was what got Lisbon treaty over the line...of course the Lisbon treaty had nothing to do with creating jobs, if it would have been put in front of the French and Dutch they would have rejected it ...after all it was the EU constitution they rejected repackaged.Those of us who were intimately involved with the No side knew that the concessions on tax matters and neutrality would be eventually be sold down the river, especially with Varadkar a self confessed EU federalist and cohorts at the steering wheel.

    What's interesting is they're using this crisis thousands of kilometers away to try justify it..



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭Freight bandit


    I'd have zero issues with a referendum on the matter, I think a decision like that should definitely belong with the people.I see no benefit of handing away our neutrality, its served us well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes, (repeating myself) it was fair.

    Provoking a crisis in our EU membership & putting it into doubt (edit: that would have been main effect of a 2nd "No" vote) would not be good for the economy, which as you point out, was in a pretty poor state at the time given country had just received a bail out package.

    Leaving the EU, which lets be honest is what the "No" side in all these referendums down the many decades have wanted for Ireland (they always argue vote "No" on every EU treaty and it's always the same crowd of people in Irish political terms i.e. SF + the far left who despise the EU and always have) would not be a very good strategy for creating jobs in Ireland.

    What's "interesting" about it? The crisis is not so far away, it is at the EU border, and we are in the EU for all you might wish it were not so. The crisis is having fairly negative effects on some EU members due to refugee flows from Ukraine. Several EU members are under threat from Russia, it all feels a bit different from where they are located I imagine. Though I suppose there is a logical consistency here if you'd argue, leave the EU, tell the others to go and shíte (as its 1000s of km away), maybe even do a little bit of cozying to Putin/Russia and play up on "neutrality" for some cheap oil say like India....no crisis for us!

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The alternative to having a vote in EU matters is the EU becoming what all those parties feared, a community for the strongest or a dictatorship.

    We have a vote (referendum) on whether we join a EU Army or not as a result of the treaty referendum. Are you saying we will be asked to leave if we say No?

    Is that a democratic institution?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    No, was discussing Lisbon Treaty specifically with other poster and not making these comments about any future agreements on EU mutual defence or military cooperation etc. that might need a referendum held here, depending on what is in them.

    I was arguing if we'd rejected Lisbon again, it would have called our entire membership into question (rather than resulting in Lisbon being scrapped).

    I don't think it would be quite the same with some new EU Common defence agreement as it is more specific (Lisbon was a treaty changing large parts of architecture of the EU) and it is also likely to be an extension/adding something new rather than changing what is already there.

    If we opt out of it (e.g. voters reject it in an EU referendum), well it is not going to affect the others who will go forward without us much, and it may not affect most aspects of our current EU membership, other than a (possibly severe though?) reduction of trust + weakening of relations with the other members who are taking part. I don't think we'll be able to obstruct it or veto it, if it is happening. Of course we may be sorry we're not a part of it later on if we run into some trouble (guarantees go both ways - as well avoiding obligations that could compromise our military "neutrality" we may lose benefit of protections if we are ever subject to some external aggression here, in our cozy nest in the Atlantic).



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Look, the simple fact here is, if you give people a vote and then turf them out when they don't vote how you want them to,(I never believed the scaremongering over this) it wasn't much of a democracy in the first place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Now imagine the EU turfing France out for voting the wrong way lol

    What we now have is Home Rule.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    The EU/other members did not give us a vote on it. It is an internal process and really a political choice by Ireland to hold these votes on EU treaties.

    It does not make us somehow super-democrats compared to others who do not hold such referendums. The fact that other countries signed up to it and didn't vote does not make them undemocratic, and fact that referendums are not required in every country does not make the EU undemocratic.

    Whether you believe it or not in my judgement that treaty was not going away because a vote in a country with 1-2 % of EU population and an even smaller faction of those eligible to vote who actually bothered their arse to do so rejected the treaty.

    So question would be what happens to Ireland and its membership when due to internal processes and political choices we can't sign on to a treaty that all other members are agreeing to and that has rewritten almost all of how EU (which we are a member of) works? I don't know how it would have played out but I do not doubt it would have been a crisis of some sort. We wouldn't be "turfed out" IMO (interesting in a way you put it like that), at worst (assuming there was no other way forward found) we'd sort of have decided not to take part any more (as a result of the vote).



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,698 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The EU recognised the veto we and others had.

    If they did that and then turfed out a member because they used the veto, what opinion could you form of the EU?

    I don't believe it would have happened and never believed the scaremongering about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Funny enough Freight Bandit above mentions a lot of what the treaty was supposed to do had been included in the EU constitution (a major difference was treaty left out the gradiose claim it was a "Constitution", as if EU was becoming a country).

    The EU constitution was already voted down by 2 countries I believe. Something "like" Lisbon was happening as (I think) it was judged the EU would become unworkable and unfit for purpose and could collapse without it.

    It was not going to be halted and roadblocked by rejection in a vote in a small country comprising 1-2 % of EU population, if other option is the EU becoming dysfunctional and irrelevant. The citizens of other democracies, who get their politicians to represent them rather than voting on EU treaties like we do, and expect the EU to continue to work well, would not be happy with that outcome. That is just the political reality. It is similar to Euro stability mechanism + changes to the currency which were happening "somehow" after the economic crisis because it was essential, even though the UK vetoed it being done in the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    This article is in the IT today.

    I am not sure that the statement from Mr Harris below fits in with Irish neutrality position - what do others think.

    Mr Harris added European countries were pooling their resource in the counter-espionage area and that the Garda force itself was “very conscious of our own internal security”, from physical security to staff vetting.“This is something we take very seriously and given the experiences elsewhere in Europe, we are wise to take this seriously,” he said.




  • Registered Users Posts: 27,689 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    We have already seen this loss of reputation arise.

    Zelensky's remarks on Ireland being almost there in support almost certainly reflect our failure to provide military aid and support.

    Given the modern context of our EU membership, from a moral point of view, our standing idly by while one of our friends (say Poland or Latvia) were invaded by Russia would be repugnant to most Irish people. That is behind the movement in the polls towards joining NATO. Neutrality and NATO membership are not incompatible, as you are neutral up until the time someone is attacked and then join in their defence.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,689 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Exactly, if we had followed the Sinn Fein line and rejected any or all of the EU referenda, we would have been opting out of the EU rather than being turfed out. If a golf club sells a course and moves to a new location, you either move to the new location or stop playing, you can't keep playing on the old one.



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