What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

Just goes to show you - "A prophet is never honoured in his home town".

My cattle are bought since last year so I have to cash them out one way or the other. Like you I decided that keeping going was the best option at this stage.

I have all my fertlizer purchased( I think). At the prices I paid fertlizer is 65/ head extra over previous peak fertlizer price. At 380/ ton ration will cost an extra 25/ head.

I am assuming that plastic will cost an extra 1.5/ bale and contractor 2.5/ bale. That will add another 20 euro per head in costs. Total extra direct costs is 110/ head. Add 20 for indirect costs leaving it at 130/ head.

Of beef prices rise by 40 c/ head I be able to pay the same price for stores as last year in the autumn ( 4.55 V 4.15 base). Of they rise or fall by 25c/ kg it +/- 85 euro to maintain my margin.

Plastic is quoted 120 on acc 112 cash, was 82 this time last year

Isn't the above statement akin to proclaiming a builder that was able to quote 250k from start to finish for a 3 bed bungalow in early 2020, who's now probably quoting 350k plus for the exact same house with no guarantee it won't end up costing 400lk plus when completed is also on the pigs back.....

Milk at 30 cent a litre with fert circa 340/good 16% ration at 250, and normal Inflation of 2-3% on all other inputs, is multiples more profitable then milk at 41.5 cent with Glanbia at present and fertilizer at 1000 euro plus and meal heading on past the 500 mark if Mills are to be believed

My margin and increased last year by 20-30/head it something I try to find increase it again this year. However inflation is generally effecting all business's margin at present.

I expect some sort of extra premia this year or a rebate on fertilizer by Government. However I expect to survive without it. My system is inherently profitable. I have factored in different scenarios that is all I can do. You also forget that I have the cattle in the yard I have to turn them back into cash the most efficient way I can.

It's the buying back at year end is where I will make the decision. If cattle are too expensive and I cannot maintain my margin I will go with less stock

However if ration is expensive winter feeders competing with me will struggle more than than I will.

Making the same margin this year is not the same. It's a similar number but with less purchasing power.

On top of that payments are by year end going to be down/money value lost a 15% difference in real terms from mid 2021.

Cattle may well be bought at the same rate or cheaper than last year this fall. I wouldn't be surprised but that will lead to significant losses and cut back in years to come for those producers.

Unfortunately ration will be well North of 400 come the summer. It might be North of 500. The potential for costs is all up.

I think that beef and dairy will see great years after this, serious clean out in America likely in the beef sector, dairy cows culled here and across the world. Getting there is the challenge.

Getting to the promised land though..

Funny there's always money for cars phones booze and everything else but food no food is too dear 🙄🙄🙄🙄 there's people who are driving a car worth north of 50 k shopping for cheap food in Aldi Lidi Tesco etc it's some brainwashing to convince the farmer food won't be bought if it's too dear

It's the way it always has been and always will. Cutbacks are going to be made and that will mean chicken, pork and mince will take some market share off the higher value cuts. If ribeyes are making €7/kg after being through the mincer instead of €20+, Larry isn't going to be able to give you a big price increase even if he wanted to...

Probably a good 25% chance at least that the beef market implodes over the next two years.

Whether it's poor weather or credit tightening that sparks it. The whole thing could go very bad yet.

idk should/will the cost of fertilizer have a direct impact on feedstuffs such as Barley, oats or feeding Wheat. There is a limit to what is viable to pay for these so the pain could hit the cereal grower double. Last year prices for feed barley was in around €215/ton. Would €315/ton be possible now if beef prices is at €5/kg. I don't think so

It wasn't always the way it has been though.

The farmers share of the retail price is at all time lows, multi generation lows, % of spend on food is lowest in recorded history.

It's accelerated over the last 20 years.

I think the fact that bottled water is cheaper than milk says it all really. People have plenty money for frivolous spending in cafés, holidays, flash cars, disposable clothes, technology, the list goes on. When we were growing up we never had many luxuries but good food on the table was number 1. People under valued accommodation for long enough too and look where it led. The standard of living at the moment is unprecedented and unsustainable.

What people say the will pay for and what they actually will pay for are two different things.

People are quite happy to eat asian chicken from delis, polish or dutch chicken at a restaurant and only buy irish chicken in the supermarket.

Switching from steak to mince twice a month will save a couple the netflix fee. Will people make that trade off? I would say it's guaranteed too happen.

Similar choices will be made across the rest of the shooping basket

The problem is that the share the farmer gets is at historical lows, there have always been ups and downs economically but the farmer got a reasonable price.

. I'm not talking about just in a life time but from records going back even in to ancient history.

That relationship started breaking down in the 90s and has accelerated in the last 10 years.

It was a conscious decision, and allowed for by a deep contempt for food production. Maybe that contempt was always there but how the money was divided was more balanced.

The farmer can still get the smallest part.