Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

What is it with your belief that we needed to repay our national debt? It would make more sense to default and start afresh than even try to repay it. Just look at how astronomical it is ludicrous to think we would ever repay it. Furthermore, why would we repay our own central bank and how would we repay our central bank unless we took the cash out of assets ((eg property) which is where a lot of the borrowing has gone via government spending on propping up the market)?

The cheap cash is not gone, the ECB controls the printers and has billions more to give Ireland post-covid to help get the economy moving again. This borrowing was stated to be available the whole time during covid when we were paying billions to people for sitting at home and for businesses to not trade so to claim there is no more free ECB cash is to basically claim FF and FG were lying and thereby squandered our only chance to avoid a hard crash when this whole charade gets found out by using that ECB cash for investment in the areas of the economy badly needing to be brought up to scratch. Another reason that FF and FG are not the solution and need to be replaced from power as they have not insulated our economy or property market from another financial crash by diversifying the revenue streams in the economy and by not allowing the housing market explode to ridiculously overvalued, unsustainable levels once again.

The trigger for the whole thing, including our property market, is most likely going to come in the major US stock markets (as our economic performance is more aligned to the US than the EU) and the (as I have mentioned before) shadow banking industry with structured notes, ETFs and derivatives which reference the major stock markets having margin call / liquidity triggers in the event of market declines, which are likely going to occur when the Fed raises its rates aggressively and unwinds its QE. A big investment bank will tank (my money is on DB) and there will be contagion across other major banks which will trigger a liquidity squeeze and panic selling as assets decline. The scale and speed of the liquidity squeeze in assets will be terrifying and the regulators will be acting to try to catch falling knives. However, as with 08, the damage done won't be undone for a few years afterwards no matter how shortlived the "recession".

Inflation won’t be 8% by the next election and the ECB will have reintroduced restrictions on gov lending that were relaxed during covid but none of that info will ever be included in sound bites. And people won’t read budget proposals that are unrealistic…just look at the no of social housing and budget allocations…do you honestly think houses can be built for less than 150k.

you never answered my question when I asked how you believe SF will lower house prices to back up your claim in your earlier post

And basically anyone else than Martin as leader of FF would take it to cling to power.

The following is the volume retail sales index for bars going back to 2015..... If they are hopping they are selling a lot less products just maybe people are unwilling to pay the higher prices..

source: CSO - RSM05 Retail Sales Index (NACE Rev 2) (Base 2015=100)

I have skin in the game if there is a financial market slowdown as you mention the area I work in. The booming asset management industry is where I earn my crust, which is why I am making hay while the sun shines and protecting myself now from a slowdown or jobs crash. I have worked through the post-08 crash years so I know a slowdown, unlike a lot of young people today or even a lot of those who got burned in the crash and seemed to have forgotten what the cause was. But my concern is to do with my friends, family, colleagues and those who share my world view; the current housing market model is doing them no favours. For me, from what I see in Germany, having much cheaper housing is the bedrock for a stable and satisfied society. Giving people of all or no incomes a stake in the market creates happier and fulfilled individuals which is good for society and social issues. We have no functioning rental market whatsoever and FG have conned us into claiming the last few years that we should become more of a renting country when they really only cared about letting the institutionals feast on the carcass of the rental market rather than building something sustainable. We will pay for this with populists and of the loopy lefty variety. The ramifications politically and economically from this will be shocking in the coming years if you have only ever known FG and FF (ie all of us).

Being in breach of the EU cap on debt is thrown out as a reason but you have given no timeline of when the cap will apply; it won't kick in until we borrow the post-covid cash we need from them to restart the economy which is now slowing, with our growth forecasts slashed for 2022 from only a few months ago. Do you think somehow the country will go back to what it was like pre-covid? Because I can tell you with good certainty that it won't; big MNCs and tech companies growing their headcount as quickly in Ireland is now over and tourists won't be back en masse for at least another year, particularly American tourists. We need to invest in the country and in its infrastructure before the crash happens or we'll be left with little signs of prosperity from the last 20 years, having squandered the Celtic Tiger cash in our property market with little education, health or infrastructure investments to show for the boom years.

D’ya remember in September, deep into the housing crisis, when it was getting worse and worse every month (still is), when Leo Varadkar, leader of Fine Gael, said “You have to think- one person’s rent is another person’s income”- that sums them up completely and is why I will never vote for them again.

If SF do nothing but build social housing, at the very least prices stay near stable, as councils will no longer be buying/renting private homes to house social tenants, instead using the built stock dedicated for that purpose.

The only actual upside to this approach, is that in case of a downturn there would still be construction work going and the industry would not collapse like in the fallout of 08.

Realistically, they will not be able to "fix" housing - electing them is more of a hail mary attempt to do something after the previous tries have failed (FF FG GP)

Currency devaluations are desirable though as it makes exports more attractive. Countries devalue their currencies all the time, infact in the last decade there has been somewhat of a "currency war" whereby everyone is trying to devalue to be more competitive than the guy next door.

IF the EU fiscal rules come back then no more borrowing for us,. however given the aftermath of covid and now soon the energy crisis (deadline for switching Russian gas/oil payments to gold/roubles is April 1), who knows what the EU will do. The rules could go totally out the window - between Ukrainian refugee crisis and the big energy squeeze, EU members are in need of big capital spending now more than ever. I wouldnt count on fiscal rule reintroduction as being a certainty just yet.

...theres no other way out of our current situation than increasing public borrowing/debt, i suspect more eu rules are gonna be going out the window soon, as it ll be the only way to manage our economies, theres no harm anyway, many eu rules are beyond ridiculous at this stage, some extremely dangerous, such as euro deficit rules.....

...it was excess private debt that lead us to 08, increasing deficit borrowing/spending is the only way to counteract this outcome again, but to make sure this money is not used to further inflate prices!

strangely enough, the right decision to open our doors, might just increase eu support to help solve our property problems, lets see what happens....

What exactly is wrong with this? The refugees will be safe here from the threat of death due to conflict, and when the conflict ceases (which will hopefully be soon), they can return home and get to work rebuilding. If I were displaced due to war, I would be happy to have safe shelter and food, and I would be extremely grateful to the people who provided it.  Soldiers on duty overseas spend months at a time in tents, so I see nothing wrong with housing refugees in this manner, nor would I expect anything better were I in their position.

Further update on this:

1. Made a an over this morning €15k over original bid (bringing over to €55k over asking price.)
2. Was immediately counter offered by under bidder by an additional €15k (bringing current bid to €70k over asking price)
3. Still competing against elderly couple downsizing who clearly have the cash

Cards folded 🥺

Have they? I certainly hope not or things will absolutely get worse

Tá Broin orm.

The ruble is almost back to where it was before the invasion despite 70% of their currency reserves rendered worthless.

“Trust takes decades to build, but only a week to lose” - somehow for the western currencies this week is now.