Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

None of us could have afforded college pre free fees so those that came to college going age when it was in play availed of it and as a result attained much better jobs contribute far more in tax and Less state supports

The greatest equalisation policy of modern times, mind you, it does need to be balanced better apprenticeship programs

A lefty policy that benefits everyone not least a massive factor in the level of FDI inflows into the country

For clarity and balance. This was in answer to what he would do with existing new builds in the pipeline, rather than their long term approach.

Remember the state was entering inflation linked leases with the building to be handed back in original condition for these properties which was of far greater cost to the taxpayer. If SF policies shock you, fg's are stroke enducing

Yeah, you kind of have to stop the people making the problem worse before you even attempt a solution and that is where we are right now

I’m not saying that you’re wrong, but supply is only half of the equation. What about demand? If there were to be a crash in the coming years, that would almost certainly lower demand. Consider the following possibilities:

1.  The state cannot access credit readily and thus cannot buy up properties directly or rent them from investment funds.

2. Following on from the above, the said funds see a drop in the possible units that can rent to the state, thus they lose interest in buying so many properties.

3. Property ceases to be such a lucrative investment for many, and they look elsewhere.

All three of the above would lead to a drop in demand. I don’t know likely any of the above would be, but I think we need to remember that supply is only short because it cannot meet the current demand. If the demand falls, the supply will be in excess.  

In fact, is this not precisely what happened in 2008? The proverbial back-side fell out of the market as the credit dried up. Demand fell, but the supply of Celtic-tiger cardboard boxes remained the same. Ergo, we had a crash.

Demand up to a certain cost exists. But don't think students or Ukranian refugees or Indian tech workers or even families migrating to Ireland can afford to buy homes let alone rent. The concept of demand destruction has started to happen the last few years, evidenced by more talk of our "competitiveness" being under threat from high housing costs. As mentioned before, the standard new build rentals are geared for the upper end of the market - as the default. There is little to no "affordable targeting" housing coming onto the rental market - this is not sustainable and cannot last, it is as simple as that.

Demand is there until it isn't which means it disappears gradually and then suddenly. But for me, demand only exists to a certain price point and the mere fact that people need somewhere to live does not automatically justify current housing costs, even in our tight supply market, let alone further increases, without something giving.

I presume you're talking about our retail banks and not financial instrument issuing / derivative counterparty investment banks like GS, JPM, DB, BB etc.? Because they have been very active in the structured instrument and derivative markets the last decade, with the instruments getting ever more complicated and speculative.

Remember this back in 2016, DB is a Lehman Bros waiting to happen and will, in my view trigger the liquidity pull back;

The DB scandal a few years ago sprung up in my mind after I read a story yesterday about Barclays playing fast and loose in the structured instrument market, and getting caught with its pants down;

It would change more than nothing, as it gives certainty that demand for construction workers will remain. We are already seeing developers pulling back from construction due to materials inflation making it less and less viable to build for the private market - state funded social housing is the solution to keeping this labour and skills in the country.

It was one of the great mistakes after 2008 to not continue building at some level, and we are currently suffering as result, unable to get enough labour to build at scale. The state building more social homes gives a consistent base level of work for those people, and we still deliver homes.

Institutional investors are the only ones building apartments on any meaningful scale because costs prohibit most developers as you need access to large amounts of cash.

yes demand from institutional investors may reduce but that will result in less apartments being built and will end up with higher rents.

The only drop in demand that would result in lower house prices is if we had mass emigration or the no of immigrants coming to Ireland fell and we continued to build without taking this into account.

again, yup those figures are indeed correct, but you ll find, most of the 'excess' properties were no where near the dublin region, once again, under supply in this region was noted, and the public made aware of it, i.e. not everyone was able to meet their property needs, and yes some indeed had the capacity to even purchase more than one property, largely due to credit markets, i.e. not everyone had these abilities, as is the case right now, and is probably far worse now also.

again, you seem to not be able to see the bigger picture, virtually nothing has changed in global terms in regards the financial sector, and you can be damn sure everything isnt rosy with ours either, davy's etc, so......

financial collapses are in fact highly complex in nature, as others have posted, nothing has truly changed in regards complex activities such as derivatives markets etc, again, china is some how managing its development/financial implosion, but theres still a possibility for it to truly implode, and we could potentially get caught up in it, due to these complexities. we never truly went far enough globally to prevent such outcomes, so.....

The derivative markets have changed because any OTC derivatives have huge capital costs compared to derivatives that are traded via a clearing house. Saying nothing has changed is total rubbish!!!!

The ability to see the bigger picture requires that you at least know the changes that have been implemented and how they impact the bigger picture.

There is as much risk from our public debt as there is from a financial crash. Because public debt isn’t being used to invest in the country and instead is being used to pay running costs which is not sustainable in the long run.

So pre pandemic levels with signficantly fewer bars? I'd say they're doing alright

08 to 11 we probably had an oversupply. A push to build in Dublin around 2014 and spread outwards where required from 2016 onwards would have alleviated many of the issues we are seeing now. The money was definitely there from 16 onwards

Former head of the NY Fed writing an opinion piece today where he expressed his view that a soft landing is no longer possible and a recession is almost inevitable, mainly due to the Fed being too slow to act on inflation (and they have at least moved faster than the ECB);

Jim Cramer of CNBC has called the bear market over which is potentially a sign that the exact opposite is happening;