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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭combat14


    ecb will have to look at inflation across all euro member states not just spain .. obviously some economies are more important than others

    if ecb indicate high inflation is permanent and up interest rates there will be carnage as all and sundry will demand commensurate pay rises to compensate for 7-8% inflation ... if employers pay out the snowball effect kicks in



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭houseyhouse


    Hard to say what we’ll do but we probably wouldn’t let it out. Don’t think we’d get another mortgage. Though I haven’t really considered it until this moment.

    Feels like there are no good options. We are seeing what we can scrape together and whether we could do a smaller job on the house. Problem is the location of the current house is perfect and our kids love it here so we’re very reluctant to move them.

    Are the houses you’re looking at in the city? Just had a quick look on daft and I only see one development and it’s a good bit over €375k for a 4 bed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    New York and New Jersey are not great jurisdictions for small landlords to thrive in either.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,680 ✭✭✭CorkRed93




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    ‘Payment shock’ awaits US home buyers as mortgage rates climb






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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,561 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    this is the level of dirt and disrespect one of our tenants left behind them. It took some negotiation and I’ll admit we returned the deposit to get them out rather than a protracted legal battle. They were getting rent at maybe 30% below market value. This carpet was 3 years old and spotless when they moved in.

    don’t really want to be dealing with this crap any more.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,978 ✭✭✭optogirl


    We have been actively looking/bidding for 18 months. Outbid on everything - one was a 2 bed ex-council house with no extension - went 70k over asking. Currently the highest bidder on a house in D7 (25k over asking). Our mortgate is with the local authority and engineer's report has stated need for substantial refurbishment so pretty sure they will not allow us to buy it. It's an absolute pain in the arse at the moment and very stressful. Waiting in a rental house for the axe to drop.



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    The state will be paying €1 for every €3 a person pays into it. The employer also contributes €3. So the state is contributing about 14.25% to your pension fund under this scheme. You will also save tax on the money they contribute so the €3 an employee contributes will cost the employee a lot less in real terms. That €3 would be less than €2 in your pocket if you were to not contribute to this scheme.

    The pension levy you talk about was 0.6% for 3 years, 0.75% for 2014 and then 0.15% for 2015. I disagreed with it and thought it was a terrible idea. However, someone contributing to a pension likely saved more in tax and earned more in fund growth over the years than they lost through the pension levy. It is possible there are some edge cases that did not but in the vast majority of cases that would be true.

    Even if they bring back the pension levy at some stage, it is incredibly likely that someone contributing to this new scheme would be better off than if they hadn't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    "Sharp slowdown in housing appreciation" - you have to admire the spin they put on it. Lipstick on a dying pig.

    This is even before rate rises have happened. When they start to happen and the manufactured recession kicks off, it could get ugly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    The same line trotted out in defence of the last pension raid.

    Very simple to fix though. Make it illegal for anyone to raid pension funds, especially the state.

    Theres a reason they wont do that though isnt there, or they would have done it already.

    The fact that your pension put is sitting there with an open lock for the government to dip into and take as much as it likes is a problem. Its easy to fix that problem, unless you need it not to be fixed.



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  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    The government make laws. If the government made it illegal to do it, they could always just make it legal to do it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Find a way. They can give me a call if they need a hand.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    German inflation figures out today, 7.6% v estimates of 6.8%. Inflation is running wild throughout the Eurozone, yet the ECB still remain adamant the they will not move on interest rates until Q4 at the earliest. Directly benefiting asset and mortgage holders, screwing renters and those trying to save in the process.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,077 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    My American father-in-law gets the NYPost as one of his daily papers so I read it when I'm in NY - it's politically somewhere to the right of Der Stuermer, so when you see "radical left" you can read it as "people with <€10m property equity", hth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    During the last pension expropriation by the state, the CEO of the company I worked for (an Allianz branch) made a rule where the company would fund the pension levy for all staff. He told us about in a townhall meeting and rightfully called it out as outright theft. Why is it men of integrity like that are not to be found in the halls of power?

    Anyways, I agree with you that the state will not make these illegal because it may just want to slip its unctuous fingers into the pot at some point. Then again, it's not like the state doesn't play fast and loose with law as it already is. I think that when it comes to pensions, it would not be a bad idea to buy gold bullion and bury it where Mr Taxman would never find it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I winced when I read the headline but if you read the article all the way to the end the politicians involved are Democrats who came up via the Democratic Socialists of America and who openly talk about nationalising NY's housing stock.

    The article was reprinted from The Tablet which is a centre British Catholic journal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,077 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    So yes, centrist politicians. No need to import the extremely corporatist right-wing ideology of American political media over here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Philip Lane and the other top brass at the ECB would have to admit they were wrong if they acted too quickly and given interest rate increases will almost certainly cause a Eurozone recession, this would be evidence that in fact they did not clean up the mess that lead to 08 and their whole careers have been based on false beliefs. They likely also have a personal vested interest in the current high asset price environment, given their age profiles. So they are staying stubborn out of human nature more than anything more solid than that, in my view.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I've just told you the article was reprinted from a British magazine.

    I'll post what I like. Some people might like to know what the situation is for small landlords in other countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,305 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    current inflation issues have little or nothing to do with the price of money, it was ultimately brought on by the disruption of supply chains from the virus, and now the war, which in turn is disrupting energy markets, raising rates would/will simply increase the cost of living more, as servicing our debts becomes more expensive.....



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Number 1 reason any right to housing referendum should be voted down unless its coupled with the responsibilities of same



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    There is no tax concessions on this scheme, its aimed a the lower paid paye workers. Govt contributing 1 for every 3 saved means greater saving for those on the standard rate of tax in a private pension. I believe its not open to self employed



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I beg to differ to be honest. Supply chain disruption has certainly contributed hugely to inflation, but record breaking Covid-era QE has driven inflation (and I would agree that such QE was needed). The fact that the Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation was no longer transitionary - long before the Ukraine war broke out and after the supply chain problems had largely been alleviated - is a clear signal that QE played a big role in driving inflation and continues to do so. The fact that the ECB also acknowledge the need to end bond buying to tackle inflation is also a clear sign that they recognise that QE is playing an underlying role in driving inflation.

    Inflation in the US was trending upwards significantly between September 2021 and January 2022, despite supply chain issues subsiding significantly and before war in Ukraine was on the agenda for the markets. Same story with the Eurozone.

    The US are raising interest rates, so they recognise QE has caused issues that need to be addressed. The ECB also believe interest rate rises are needed, but feel they cannot do so until bond buying has wound down completely. Both institutions know QE has contributed to inflation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Yeah you hear alot about a measly half a percent charge. Many of the providers charge considerably more than that for unmanaged funds.

    Is there any chance the pension holders whinging would give back the gains from quantitive easing in return for the pension levy. You can bet your pension they won't



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05



    Maybe there is too many men of "integrity" as defined by the financial sector in the corridors of power

    Heaver forbid we forget the reason the pension levy was brought in in the first place




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In other news, Electricity prices set to rise again.


    This time electric ireland to raise prices by 23% from May. Wage inflation looks to be inevitable with these rises in the cost of living, and we all know where asset (property) prices go from there. No brakes on the property train!



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,076 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/0329/1289081-private-sector-pensions/

    "It is expected that three quarters of a million private sector employees, aged between 23 and 60 and who earn more than €20,000 a year, will be automatically signed-up."

    If you're on €20k a year, you are paying tax at 20% so there is a tax saving. Putting €1,000 a year into your pension only costs you €800. You save €200 on tax. The employer matches you contributions. That is another €1,000. The state will contribute €333. So you have contributed €2,333 to your pension for a cost to you of €800. You have essentially tripled your money before it was even invested.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,659 ✭✭✭ittakestwo



    The expected housing stock that should be for sale is less than halve at the moment. Obviously covid decreased supply. But this cannot perpetually continue. As we go forward housing stock will have to increase.


    Thankfully the 3.5× income rules is containing prices somewhat. In other countries without lending rules the price inflation has been alot higher. I think increased supply and rising interest rates will bring the increase to the end next year. Could even start to unwind some of the gains of the last year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,521 ✭✭✭wassie


    Its a good point. The major difference between the Australian system I mentioned is that the individual effectively owns their own pension (via trust structure) and hence it is not the property of the Government. Problem solved. The Govt benefits through (low) taxation on contributions going in. Income & profits earned via investments inside the fund are taxed up until retirement age is reached.

    They have since introduced a first home buyer saving deposit scheme called the First Home Super Saver Scheme (FHSS scheme) which permits members to make voluntary contributions of up to AUD$15,000 each financial year (remembering that only the employer has to make manditory contributions to the pension).

    The advantage is that voluntary contributions are made from pre-tax income and receive concessional tax treatment of 15%. Also the deeming rate is higher than interest rates applicable to a normal savings account (yes, you can still earn a small amount of interest in Aus). This scheme allows for a maximum of $30,000 can be released from your super to use as a deposit for your first home. From 1 July this year, this amount is increasing to a maximum of $50,000.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The state contributing 1 euro for every 3 is instead of tax relief not in addition to tax relief according to ictu on Claire Byrne yesterday



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