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2022 Seanad by-election

13567

Comments

  • #62
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    I voted #1 for Tom Clonan, gave Maureen Gaffney my #3. I do like the idea of senators being independent.

    Why is Hugo McNeill doing so well? Anyone who puts rugby as a selling point on the blurb of their leaflets is an instant no from me.



  • #63
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]



    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860348#Comment_118860348

    Possibly because not everyone who voted shares your view of the world. I voted for him despite the fact that he played rugby for Ireland!

    Incidentally, if you voted for Clonan no.1 then it's unlikely that your lower preferences are going to matter very much!



  • #64
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860380#Comment_118860380

    Fair enough, but even if someone is a rugby fan, I don’t see how someone’s prior experience in rugby is of any use whatsoever in the Seanad! Sure, there’ll be some votes on sports funding etc, but when you see some of the achievements of the other candidates, I don’t really get it. Yes of course I can only speak for myself.



  • #65
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]



    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860400#Comment_118860400

    My voting strategy involved asking myself which candidate would Bacik be most upset to see winning her seat - and the answer was very obvious!

    My son's voting strategy was equally logical - he asked himself who was most likely to beat Chu based on the recent TCD election, so went for Clonan!



  • #66
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860412#Comment_118860412

    Bassett, I would have expected - McNeill would be lower down than having Bassett in there spouting.



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  • #67
    Annasopra
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Looking at the count I think Hazel Chu has an outside chance here

    Roseingrave, Mckenna, O'Neill, Stocker and Quill could all swing it to Chu

    https://twitter.com/WilliamQuill/status/1509478220055392256?t=k-5_1Tz-TOlCE9wbNrV0Uw&s=19


    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • #68
    9320
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭9320


    I think Gaffney will win it - MacNeill is toast I would think, just not going to get the transfers. Chu probably too far behind Gaffney so Gaffney versus Clonan.



  • #69
    jolivmmx
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    A64A88E7-09C9-4DEA-8BCF-439583343E91.png

    I voted Gaffney as my number one and Clonan as number two



  • #70
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860434#Comment_118860434

    Roseingrave nearly 2:1 to Gaffney over Chu

    https://twitter.com/WilliamQuill/status/1509486117460103171


    McKenna's voters could be anything and everything these days, McNeill and non-transferable could take more than Chu!



  • #71
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860434#Comment_118860434


    The extent of McKenna's transfers in Chu's direction could be significant. If she isn't well ahead of Gaffney after that then I reckon she hasn't a hope!



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  • #72
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    McKenna now out with 463 votes to transfer.

    https://twitter.com/WilliamQuill/status/1509491261094379527


    This could be a very odd split. Some Green line stuff to Chu, anti EU to Bassett (enough to keep him in for another count? Probably not) etc

    Chu will need an exceptionally strong split to get ahead of Gaffney on this.



  • #73
    Annasopra
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I heard a tally of O'Neills number 2 transfers went way over 40% to Chu

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • #74
    Annasopra
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    I still think Chu has an outside chance from transfers.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • #75
    jolivmmx
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860621#Comment_118860621

    There is a huge gap for her to jump



  • #76
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Oluborode would have some small g green stuff along with O'Neill that could link through to Chu.



  • #77
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Going on William Quill's spreadsheet (he hasn't tweeted the summary yet), Gaffney got more of McKenna's transfers than Chu; Bassett now out.

    edit:

    https://twitter.com/WilliamQuill/status/1509498383345586179




  • #78
    jolivmmx
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860695#Comment_118860695

    I cannot imagine a lot of Bassett’s votes will go to Chu



  • #79
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860722#Comment_118860722

    McNeill and the bin (non transferable) to be the main winners, I'd expect.

    I thought they'd take more than Chu from McKenna, which they did combined (32+32 vs 60) at least.



  • #80
    Annasopra
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860630#Comment_118860630

    I heard there was a tally that she was getting roughly 45% of Sadhbh ONeill number 2s

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • #81
    jolivmmx
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    She would still need in excess of 250 extra votes, as it stands currently, plus whatever excess that the other candidates receive. I just cannot see it happening



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  • #82
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860747#Comment_118860747

    Only really helpful if Gaffney doens't get ~20% or more though; which considering who will be left is quite likely.



  • #83
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It looks like Gaffney is getting more transfers than Chu, and McNeil is not getting enough, so between Gaffney and Conan.

    The differences between the front four is about the number of transfers each is getting, and that will increase as more are eliminated, so still all to play for - but Chu has a long way to go to catch up.



  • #84
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Minor aside - if Gaffney gets this, it will give Trinity two of the oldest members of the Oireachtas in her and Norris.



  • #85
    jolivmmx
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860845#Comment_118860845

    When I was reading up on her, she stated that she was the first person in her family to go to College. I like that!



  • #86
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    So this elitist nonsense is only open to those who graduated out of Trinity College. Any other requirements, like you have to own 2 houses as well?

    Cannot believe we still have this farce, along with the media giving it attention.



  • #87
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Spreadsheet reading pre-Quill tweet again - MacNeill and Clonan the main recipients of Bassett's votes. Oluborode out. Gaffney eked a tiny bit further ahead of Chu

    MacNeill only leads by 7 now and I expect that to end on the next count.

    Its all left or left-ish women to go out now; but both Chu and Gaffney are potential recipients for that vote. And Clonan of course; he can't be entirely written off.



  • #88
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,483 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Have to laugh that the discussion here is all about Chu even though she looks like an outside chance only at this point. She's quite the divisive character.

    Not a great selection of candidates there to be fair. How many of them seem to be some shade of green?



  • #89
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,483 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860879#Comment_118860879

    You have to have a horse worth at least £5.

    It's mad that such a rotten borough can exist in a modern democracy tbh, and I say that as someone who had a vote here.



  • #90
    Icemancometh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭Icemancometh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860881#Comment_118860881

    Presuming Clonan passes out MacNeill, would you think it'd come down to MacNeill's transfers?



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  • #91
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,249 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860899#Comment_118860899

    Three of them have run as Greens in other races (Chu, O'Neill and Roseingrave); one is a member of the lawyers environmental group (Oluborode).

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860910#Comment_118860910

    Its mathematically possible for it not to come to that... but it probably will.



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