Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Using a hopper is being soft…Real men use a sleàn 😏

I don’t think it will come to that as oil is down 5% today so market isn’t scared of Russian black mail.

In a change of topic from the macro-economics and WWIII :( - I asked my mortgage broker today on his view on the market, and he said that while new supply is finally starting to come online and ease the pressure a little, that if I wanted a property that would hold its value, to consider a high-end apartment rather than a house. That way, I'd be less likely to be competing with FTBs, and investors.

Interested in other peoples' thoughts? I'm fairly flexible about what kind of property I go for - the way the market is now, my priority is not to find my forever home, but to get somewhere reasonably quickly and start paying off my own mortgage rather than someone else's, and be insulated from further skyrocketing prices for the next few years.

It's might seem a Mexican standoff. However not only do Russia need the revenue it also cannot store the gas elsewhere. It will literally have to burn it off. Imaging burning off a half a billion a day.

If sanctions are hurting Russia right now give it a few weeks and Putin will be burning up his foreign reserves. You are looking at the largest economic block in the world. It's ability to adapt is huge.

Will it hurt. Yes but it will hurt Russia a lot more. If he turns it off will it ever matter if he turns it back on again.?

Nearly all apartments are being bought by investors…I would get a new broker with that advice

There are also a lot of big schemes still pushing ahead. Developers that have the means are simply procuring a lot of packages early in advance of appointing a builder to help manage cost. Essentially they are taking on a larger share of the project risk that otherwise would normally be passed on to the builder.

I wouldnt give too much credence to that Prime Time report - a lot of 'ifs' and 'maybes'. Impacts are being felt now, but we are not closing shop on building anytime soon especially while the returns on investment are there.

The single biggest constraint we have is getting workers, both trades and professionals. And that is harder to deal with because we simply cannot attract workers here on a large scale as they have no where to live.

But this would be a short run cycle. Homeowners ultimately will sell at an average of once in every 20 years. Periods where people put of selling are not unusual and usually correspond to an economic shock. Like the one which covid gave us. But we will eventually go back to the trend rate of the expected existing house sale turnover.

Prices are rising because of lack of supply but with new builds edging up. More existing stock to come on market. Rising interest rates cycle to come and a fall in real wages (inflation running higher than wage inflation) I would think the rises will end later this year.

I think the headlines at the end of next year will be "Housing crisis is over - Rate of price rises is going down. Its only 9% per year now."

Not a chance in hell of this country ever catching up with the increase in supply needed even to stand still.

You can say the same argument why house building won't go down. It is not the cost of construction but availability of builders that is holding it back. Currently only halve of new build planning permission are being build due to lack of bulders. If one developer decides not to build another will snap up that builder for thier project. Builders are out the door for work. Anyway sale prices are rising faster than cost build in many urban locations so makes no sence why developers would not construct. House prices for a 3bed house or apartment in Dublin has probably gone up more than the cost to build since covid so don't see why new builds slowing at all. It will keep edging up towards 30k over next decade which should be well enough for demand.

You're wrong.

They'll have them empty until they get rented. 1 year, 5 years, 10? Who cares.

He who controls the supply, reaps the reward.

And you still have people here blaming leftist policies for our predicament

We've gone too far right

House prices didn’t jump like that under trump.

Only when free funny money Democrats came in.

proper low tax, economic right wing, free market countries see no such house price jumps (Switzerland, singapore, Dubai, Japan)

House prices didn't jump massively before or during corona here either so whats your point? Did Biden affect house prices in Ireland too or is it really just the global effect of people coming out of a worldwide pandemic?

Isn't that just a list of places where houses prices were already very high?

Japan is famous for its multi generation mortgages because prices are so high

I don't think you can count any arab country as its illegal to get into debt so you'd be mad to do property speculation without money in the bank.

Singapore's property market is very limited due to its size

Switzerland is bound to feel the effects of the greater EU inflation.

Japanese property is extremely affordable. And so is Singapore (it’s cheaper than most big European capital cities despite much higher average net income).

just a bunch of excuses…

alternatively compare American red states vs blue states. Red states have all the net migration (Texas florida etc) and still very affordable. left wing policies always impoverish the middle class, thats why it always fails.

UK and US Middle class have been shrinking for some time

Misread the context of the post, deleted my comment.