Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Interesting video from WSJ, the average house in America increased in value more than the average salary in 2021, pretty crazy when you think about it!

Worth a watch to learn how we got here and potentially where we are going. Aimed at western world esp USA but lots of correlation with ireland

In

you might want to edit singapore out.

price to income ratio in singapore is anything but sane

Interesting thesis on the US market that the issue of supply is primarily due to a lack of sellers, and flags that the housing stock per capita is almost identical to what it was in 2008 in the US. Also, that new home construction is outpacing population growth. Finally, that with the major of stakeholders bullish about the market it is indicative that the top has arrived.

A very quick estimate of our housing stock per capita in 2008 versus 2019 would provide the following ratios; 0.437 houses per capita in 2008 and 0.414 per capita in 2019. Interesting indeed and it would indicate to me that the supply coming onstream post-covid from new builds could very quickly lead to an oversupply in the market, at the prices being sought at least, which would result in a correction in the market to at least some extent (even before looking at things like rising mortgage rates and soaring cost of living).

I'd also recommend reading the comments under the article as some ask for more info, critique the analysis as well as back it up. It is a fairly rounded discussion usually under Seeking Alpha articles.

A quick look at Japan and Singapore and much of their success is down to state involvement in the supply side rather than the demand side here in Ireland.

Now which policy would be considered leftist?

Looks like the construction sector is very busy, little time for life's other callings

In one post, you mention Singapore property prices are very affordable. Yet in another, you have linked an article referencing the private property market, which is obviously not.

Giving you the benefit of doubt that you understand you are talking about two different things.. the price of properties in both the HDB & private markets are broadly stable not as a result of "proper low tax, free markets" as you have mentioned, but because of full government oversight in the case of HDB's / social housing and government policy influence in the case of the private market. The price difference is still stark - 400k for a HDB 4-bed versus 5 million to the skies the limit for a private 4-bed. Mr. Dyson famously bought a very nice one for around 70million a few years ago.

An article from Forbes on the rocketing prices in Phoenix Arizona. Note the sharp correlation with causes in Dublin specifically the competitive advantage given to investors through taxation, plus you have the added problem of making social housing provision an investment product

Welcome to the Irish housing market, pause is something it does well. The ladder was well and truly folklore

Easier said than done. We put a 2 - 4 year horizon on our FTB last summer approximately but it feels like we are waiting an eternity. But I know it in my head it is the right thing to do and I also know that having a bank account with cash (60k+) is not a bad thing despite what some may have us believe.

That being said, our family situation (young couple with a baby) leaves us with limited options as we need a 3 bed rental or purchase and soon, so we have started the process to try to emigrate (my job is the anchor and I've applied to relocate to Switzerland) as a hedge.

Short story long in the above; (1) waiting 2-4 years IF YOU CAN (ie save); and (2) emigration pressure valve: are the best choices.

The trajectory as I see it over the next two years is further increases and a supply squeeze for another 6 months followed by a freeze in increases or drops and then some form of correction manifesting that might be with us for a couple years at least.

until there are more houses built the market is at a standstill because people won’t put houses up for sale because they will struggle to find somewhere else.

And then depending on what you are looking for it might mean that the only houses being built are in commuter towns as the majority of planning for Cork is apartments that are to expensive to build so are put on hold for years and not built.

If you look at the approved planning for cork there are 1000’s of apartments yet very little have commenced as they wouldn’t be able to sell or rent and make a profit. So despite all the approved planning nothing is being built.

you can guarantee that most of the plans for the Docklands will all be apartments and it will be 10+ years before they will have people living in them