Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Care to elaborate?

Last time I checked Singapore was a rich island with limited scope to build new affordable housing anywhere, they have been reclaiming land from the sea in fact to expand, that's not a functioning property market in the most basic of terms and shouldn't be used for international comparisons.

Specifically 2020 is when I was referring to, Biden came into power start of 2021 and that's the post I was responding to, its not surprising, you could barely view a house in 2020.

The impression that it is somehow squeezed to the brim and has no space is false. They are certainly building into more heartland area’s or traditionally quieter neighbourhoods and of course building’s are getting taller but despite having such a small land mass, it has a countryside and smaller ‘towns’. There are also several mini islands that are maintained as old world outposts and nature reserves - I won’t panic that we are reaching full capacity until I hear one of those is being re-zoned!

Lots of land reclamation going on yes, but not necessarily for housing at the moment. The vast majority is down in the CBD, behind the MBS, so the heart of ‘the city’ / downtown SG - lots of offices, hotels, amenities and more green space planned. The smaller projects dotted around the island seem to be for industrial purposes, don’t know much about them. They are also in the process of moving the port away from the CBD into an area of reclaimed land.

I can see first-hand with Singaporean colleagues how the HDB model (80% of population living in public housing) is fit for purpose in Singapore. However I am also one of the first to roll my eyes when it is hailed as a golden solution for Ireland’s housing crisis, esp. as most of the those who place it on a pedestal seem to know very little about it.

Hi there,

Our plan was to trade up this year. Spent the last year doing all the jobs that need doing for a sale. We decided about a month ago to reassess things. We are in Cork. We will sell our house no problem, but the market is very poor in terms of what we could buy. We are going to park things for 3 to 5 years. Lucky to be homeowners I suppose. Are there others on here like us having to put things on pause for a few years.

Chatting to a nurse in one of the dublin hospitals the other night. Obviously it's well documented how short staffed they are and it seems in this particular hospital one of the main reasons is that the staff they used to get from the Philippines and South East Asia that filled the gaps cannot afford to live here anymore and don't come in the numbers they used to.

This is anecdotal, but I've seen a lot more properties up for sale in my area (Dublin 5) than at any other time in the last two years. I counted on my dog-walk yesterday, and I came across ten houses up for sale. It's certainly an increase, but again, it could just be a local aberration.

We can't afford to keep borrowing. We still have to pay for debts of 2008 financial crash, covid and the impact of the war in the Ukraine. I always find comments like these bizarre.

We are a small open economy who need to import materials for building. We can't control the prices of these raw materials. Who exactly do you expect to pay for all of these costs and borrowings?

oh ffs, this crap again! public debt is not dangerous, particularly for a developed economy such as ours, and the fact we have the backing of the ecb to do so, the only way to try prevent a downturn, or reduce its effects, is to ramp up public borrowing, as the private sector is simply unwilling or able to do so. this debt can be used to stimulate the economy, especially the private sector, as a significant amount of public works and needs are carried out by the private sector.....

its clearly obvious now, running limited deficits is in fact dangerous, as we become over reliant on the credit supply in order to run our economies, a significant proportion of private debt/credit is now used to just inflate asset prices, such as, stocks, shares, bonds, 'real estate'!!!! therefore increasing wealth inequalities.....

by not increasing the public money supply, i.e. the deficit, you significantly increase the likelihood of a recession, and all that entails.....

so, craic on with the borrowing, keep the economy going, or else.....

https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/house-rebuild-calculator/ giving me 563k without any extras for 250sqm

Okay I will ask the question again. Who exactly is going to pay for all the borrowings? Borrowing whether its private or publicly funded still has to be paid back. Its borrowing! its not grants its still has to be paid back.

Who exactly do you think has to pay back public debt? The tax payer

A debt to one is an asset to another the liability does not just disappear. We borrowed to stave off the effects on the economy during Covid. We still don't know how the removal of these supports will impact the economy. We don't have an unlimited supply of funds to stimulate the economy.

Well considering that many of the investment funds that operate here are pension funds, we can deduce precisely how the older generations intend to keep themselves in pensions. The plan seems to be that those of us not in this group will be paying rent in perpetuity to keep this system in place.  This simply is not going to work. Ethically, it is utterly reprehensible, but as the older generations gradually transition out of holding the reins of power and younger people take their place, the appetite to continue will erode. 

As for the shrinking of the welfare state, I agree with you. If it were to be rolled back, many people would be condemned to poverty.  However, the welfare state is already failing. There is not enough social housing to go around, and the only way to suppose the current levels is to cripple working people with taxes whilst simultaneously driving up the cost of housing and thus locking them out of the market. In that situation, younger people will put off starting families or, as in my own case, they just won’t bother. Thus, one can add demographic decline to the mix, hence the state’s predilection for immigration. It has nothing to do with “diversity”…

I honestly have no idea how to fix this mess. This is off topic, but if I could be indulged for a moment, I will say that I’m starting to come to the conclusion that the West has simply had its time as the dominant civilisation. Historically, civilisations eventually begin to decay as they run out of “steam” and newer groups rise to take their place.  Rome didn’t fall because the barbarians invaded a healthy empire; it declined over time as it began to rot from the inside as the circumstances that made it changed and the people lost their way.

Anyways, that’s all off topic, so I’ll leave it at that. Alea iacta est…

Borrowing for infrastructure that delivers a return or offsets outgoings makes sense, but probably should have started 6 years ago and maybe that train has left the station.

Our governance specifically in relation to housing and energy has again left us in the worst possible position going into a crisis

Strap yourselves in, its going to be bumpy ride