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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,290 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    in the short-term, it might look like the RUB is holding up impressively. But they are actually burning their reserves (the ones that aren't frozen) to support it. In the long term, they will run out of reserves and artificial price supports.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,858 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I saw a couple of exiled Russian oligarchs that got into Putin's bad-books and had been talking with media in the last while about what the situation in the Kremlin is like.

    The one fella they were interviewing suggested that talk of oligarchs putting pressure on Putin was misguided, and that Putin himself is essentially a dictator with final say on all matters, regardless of what his wealthy buddies say.

    There is no real process to remove him from power, and I suspect he knows that Plan A for many is to simply end him. So I wouldn't be surprised if he retained some of his best trained and loyal troops / agents to function as a protection detail. Going with the whole Nazi comparisons, he'd probably do similar to Hitler and have multipule layers of defence units to protect himself.

    I feel that the only ways we'll see the end of him are:

    A) He actually is terminally ill, and will just die eventually.

    B) An internal defection that results in him being shot / blown up (as had happened with Hitler a couple of times)

    C) A military coup by a fed up army who then cut him off or turn their artillery on his house one night.


    Or, I dunno, he's visited by 3 Ghosts in the middle of the night, sees the error of his way and the next morning ends the war saying "My bad, sorry, I was being a bastard, we'll pull out. I was having bad week, and you know yourself some days you can feel extra murder-y. Here...I'll pay for the damage and even give Crimea back."

    Probably not though...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,290 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Probably more like the desperate attempts by the UK to prop up Sterling during the 1992 crisis. That's where Soros really first broke into the big leagues.

    Of course the RUB is operating in a totally artificial market right now. It's not a 'currency' in the sense that we in the West understand it.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    @Wibbs You mentioned yesterday or the day before about this whole war not making sense from the Russian side and I agree. I made the point that if Putin wanted he could sell a "victory" at any time to 90+% of the population and it'd be over. With the way things are going I still can't really make sense of it. Are they just going to try and take the east now? Or is he just in for a penny and he's just going to have them advance as much as possible from the east?

    Then again, I'm looking at things from a point of view that places some value on human life and culture. Putin could just as easily just let this keep rumbling indefinitely, death and destruction be damned. Could almost argue it's what he wants, more to put Ukraine in their "place" as much as anything else. It's really fuckin hard to fathom.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    I'm just looking at it from an Occam's Razor point of view. I think that having realised his first stupid plan has failed, Putin's thinking is now in a "holding pattern" mode because he can't quite accept the fact that he simply can't have what he wants. In short, no one knows what will happen next.

    I am though, very encouraged to see heavy vehicles finally getting sent in. One hopes that having taken this new step, it will be followed with the transfer of fighter jets.

    As for Putin, obviously no happy retirement, courtesy of a huge bounty, unless someone, sooner, does the job for free.

    Post edited by Curious_Case on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    I read somewhere that he redeployed them there to kill off witnesses of these horrible war crimes, because a lot of them will die



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    The US Senate "resurrected" the Second World War Lend-Lease Act, enabling President Joe Biden to more efficiently ship weapons and other materials to Ukraine, Politico reports.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    A vote will be held in New York to suspend Russia from the United Nations Human Rights Council. The meeting starts at 3pm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭rogber


    Honestly that sounds like nonsense, the Russian leadership don't seem to care at all who knows about their war crimes, if any soldiers were to speak out I suspect they'd just be swiftly shot/locked up



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    I think that's just a minor side benefit for him, they'd be very likely to be redeployed there anyway.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭JoChervil




  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The covering up war crimes stuff could be fairly typical Russian dissonance. Destroy some evidence, claim what evidence is there is staged, deny everything. They maybe have a deluded threshold of what "people" will believe if they're told.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,173 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    I am just curious about so called red lines at this stage. So far invasion, slaughter, raping torturing and mass killing of civilians (imo we are not aware of a fraction of this yet) are not crossing any red lines. So let's say the Russians kill or probably worse for his sake abduct president Zelensky then is that crossing a red line?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭XsApollo


    good

    then remove them from the security council and the UN all together.

    then the WTO

    and the WHO

    then the planet in an ideal scenario.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,574 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Translation.

    This "grandfather" spent 20 years in prison. He stole the uniform of the Russian Federation and biscuits and documents of an officer from a tank standing in his yard.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Yes, the Ru central bank + capital controls taking effect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,255 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    When you have Nukes gas and oil they let you do it. No red line exists for Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Drones really changing war, which they can use to adjust artillery. Not sure what the second battery is hitting off in the distance but can see that this incoming fire has disrupted Russians setting up their artillery.




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    As much as the British mastiff and jackals are needed and they are an improvement over the last vehicles they sent 8 years ago classified as death traps by British commanders ,

    They need offensive armour, IFVs, tanks and artillery,



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,006 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    TBF they have been pretty clear what the red line is, an attack on an inch of any NATO member.

    All the horror that you mentioned will not be a surprise to any western military or security agency so nothing really changes on that front.

    The parameters have changed drastically though, we have gone from Ukraine being toppled in 3 days to now being probable favourites to push these scum and criminals out.

    Ukranians are quite clear in what they need.

    Today.

    Ukraine’s foreign minister sounded more like a defense minister on his arrival at NATO headquarters Thursday morning to request military assistance in fighting Russia’s invasion of his country.

    My agenda is very simple—it has only three items on it. It's weapons, weapons and weapons,”



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    He's an autocrat of course, but IMHO less the president of a country, more the emperor of an empire*. That's what Russia has seen itself as since the fall of Constantinople(one of Moscows titles is "The Third Rome"), even after the fall of the Czar(literally the "Caesar" of Russia), the rise and imperial expansion of the Soviet Union and when it fell after a period of confusion putin took up that imperial purple mantle.

    Note earlier the information around the postal adresses where Russian looters were sending their war booty back to. They're provincial imperial troops. Usually seen as cannon fodder compared to the true "Romans"/Russians. He and the Russian psyche see Ukraine as part of "Russia", another province, another oblast, one that was ruled over by one of their connected to the throne provincial governors. Like their once provinces of the Soviet Union. Just like Georgia and Chechnya, where after his troops "restored order" he installed another connected to the throne provincial governor. Note the number of mouthpieces, even Russians on the street namechack Poland as next in line. They see Poland as another province, at least the eastern part of it. And they have the niggle in the back of their heads that the Poles were one of the few invaders that successfully took the throne of Russia Rome. See how Stalin and Hitler planned to divide Poland between them before WW2.

    If we view putin and Russia through this prism it starts to make more sense. The fear of invasion, of "outside influences", the huge rooms where putin conducts his business with his underlings, the long tables and all that. Yes there is paranioa on his part, but it's just as much about the trappings of imperial rule. In the West we got rid of kings for the most part and where they exist they're a figurehead, fancy relic, or tourist attraction. Our leaders are "men of the people", they have to be, or have to appear to be to get democratically elected. We see Zelenskyy in army fatigues sitting with his people as a great leader, while enough Russians, because of their cultural bias, even if they may quietly admire his resolve and courage, he's not "imperial" like their putin.

    He screwed up the annexation of Ukraine. The province wasn't for taking. He annexed Crimea, but his once province rebelled and installed a leader and a system that wasn't Russian. The talk about NATO, The EU, biolabs and missile etc are mostly a sideline(though he sees and paints the EU/West as a competing empire). IMHO he's now pivoted to taking the east of Ukraine. Ideally for him all lands to the east of the Dnieper. He can sell that as a triumph to his subjects. "Just" the Donbas would be the runner up prize. Talk of Poland et al is just sabre rattling at this point and he well knows it.




    *we make a similar mistake with China. It's also more an empire than a country. It literally had an emperor a hundred years ago. So when we look at their invasion of Tibet we see a country invading another sovereign nation, they see it as being part of China.

    Post edited by Wibbs on

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,173 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    So do you reckon killing or doing worse to president Zelensky, and let's face it the longer this goes on the greater the possibility, will really make no difference in our response to Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Even Alexander Solzenhitzin , who was very much anti oppression in Soviet Russia was also very much anti Ukrainian independence as well. His view was that Russia would be better off without the central Asian and Caucasian republics but that Belarus , Russia and Ukraine were indivisible. I suppose his vision was a more European Russia. But he did express positivity towards Putin while he was alive too. The pre 2008 Putin. Be interesting to see his take on current events if he were around. Some of his views were often contradictory as well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,006 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Zelensky is probably relatively safer now than any point over the past 3 years.

    Also

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv this week, an EU spokesman said Tuesday

    Hypothetically him being killed would be a massive blow because he is a tremendous asset, but it wouldn't really change anything.

    It's only 6 weeks ago the West thought Ukraine would fall in days and you would have a decade long insurgency with Ukraine Militia fighting from the forests, Zelensky was to be evacuated and lead his government in a different country.

    Well the wheels have been fúcked off the Putin Fun Bus and we are playing a different game now.

    NATO don't need to put boots on the ground, plenty of far more motivated boots there, they just need the tools to do the job.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain



    Although it's impossible I'd love to see every civilian get out. The thought of what's happened to so many already in Russian controlled areas just fills me with dread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,173 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    It's actually depressing to think that nothing will be done about it apart from a minutes silence. All these special forces and navy seals, army rangers etc etc appear to be nothing more than a bag of ****.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,059 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    In truth, he could pull back now and claim the denazification/ demilitarisation of Ukraine. Russian population would likely row in for a while, but wouldn't take too long for reality to set in. Then he's in big trouble, having to crack down hard on dissent in his own people. He's over reached completely and over committed, question is how long till someone gives him a push.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,537 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,908 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    He's propping up the ruble to prevent people losing the plot tbh. How long can that last



This discussion has been closed.
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