Ukrainian refugees in Ireland - Megathread

We certainly should have done something about housing, health too, but it was kicked down the road because of various vested interests and infighting and government laziness hoping the next bunch would do something, so they couldn't be blamed for it. This humanitarian crisis comes along and we go full on kneejerk, understandably, throw open our doors and open our wallets, but of course emotionals to the fore, again understandably, but without a clear medium, never mind long term actual practical plan in place. Looks great for the political optics of course and very few non political Irish people are going to be so callous as to ask WTF and assume somebody somewhere has a firm hold of the reins. Bloody rightfully at first, but that day will come. And will the powers that be have an actual practical plan by then? I'm not so sure how long I can hold my breath. I live in hope as they say.

EU energy dependence is mostly centered around Germany and they're dragging their heels. And yep I can see the practicalities of why too. Now we can again crow on Twitter on the horrors of war and what about the children!! stuff, but it's no good imposing sanctions if they bugger you up as well, or enough to cause enough problems which lead to grumbling and pushback in the medium and long term. Democracies with much bigger economies, a much better off general population and a free media are a lot less resilient to such things than autocratic dictatorships with a large percentage of the population under their thumb and spell with moo cows out the back yard, a tiny economy, and a completely controlled press and narrative. If you're not careful you can get into a game of chicken and the facist is less likely to blink first. He and his minions are rich beyond measure, his peoples controlled and primed for sacrifice to Mother Russia. I can see Germany and other feet draggers doing their bit and nobody will ever trust Russia again. In the long term Russia is fúcked.

On our defence? Our wee army and navy have bugger all to do with how putin sees the West. His rhetoric against the West and her "decadence" is for his own brainwashed peoples and some outside Russia. He regularly returns to this script of the "Woke West", "cancel culture" and "Gender fluidity" and how the West is weak because of this stuff as he knows this stuff sells, both to his own and the Tucker Carlson Right winger types beyond Russia's shores. Now one may argue it does weaken our resolve. I would say the trend to more Jaw Jaw and forgetting about War War was a mistake. One casuality of that was thinking commerce with an autocratic state would reduce even stop the risk of them going to war. I would say it increased it.

However in reality he's looking at America and France and Germany and Turkey and fears them. For all his guff about "weakness" he knows 100% that without his nukes NATO if they wanted to could be kicking in the unhinged doors of his Kremlin after they shock and awe'd it into rubble. Of putin's forces they'd make 10,000 widows in a week. Before they put boots or tracks on the ground. He's wary of Turkey on her own. When the Turkish shot down one of his planes who strayed into their airspace and killed the pilots(or one can't recall), he blustered about banning some foods from Turkey but did bugger all in actuality. They called his bluff.

He's been described by his lickspittle fanbois of being a "chess master", IMHO he's a poker player and fairly good at it. Unlike the US of late he's actually won most of his wars. He won in Georgia and got back the bits he wanted, he won in Chechnya and installed his bootboy puppet. He won in Syria, to the degree that his boy is still in charge and even took Crimea with barely a real response from the West. Bit of down with that sorta thing! in speeches, but bugger all else. The West could and should have called his bluff. Could the West do it this time? I don't think so. To stretch the poker analogy further; in previous games he had halfway decent hands and he didn't put much in the pot so could afford to fold and chalk it up to the luck of the draw. This time he thought he was dealt a decent hand and went all in, only to find after the draw he had feck all, but the pot is huge and raising the stakes means he has to fold or double down.

As for Ireland. If I were running our defences and international relations, no way would I join NATO. An EU force, yes but with caveats. I would look to our past and go all in on the UN type peacekeeping, the humanitarian and peacemaking too. I'd try to make us one of the one stop shops for that, geopolitically and militarily too. Militarily "neutral", but for peacekeeping and stability. As a non neutral military part of NATO we'd be the one guy with bandy legs and cross eyes in the back of the class with almost no say in things. Even if we massively increased our military spending we'd barely make up a tiny part of the US National Guard, with less kit. I don't want to send Irish men and women to die on foreign fields for that.

It's easy to forget at the moment when the blood's up and calls for NATO membership and all that gung ho guff, that people will get around a table. This war will end. The guns will fall silent. There will be an afterwards. If our military were involved it would make little difference, but if our peacekeeping, humanitarian and peacemaking were in play it could have far more of an impact and for the longer term too. It could also be good for us economically as nations like Ukraine rebuild and we help them do that. I'd rather our Irish forces get statues and praise for protecting the peace, the people and building a new Ukraine and whatever nation comes next, than get statues for blowing a couple of things up.

My 3cents anyway.

There are indeed Jim, but not for long for most people unless they're personally connected and invested like you. In the wider society the honeymoon period will end and it'll end more quickly and with more risk of empathy fatigue even backlash if the government don't get a handle on this and quickly.