Russian warship, go f**k yourself!

Did you miss the bit where they tried to take over the whole of Ukraine and got kicked back in the last few weeks? Is that evidence not hard enough for you!

Trump wasn't "right"; he was simply putting on a nonsense show. He chastised Germany for taking gas etc. but did nothing but cosy up to Putin and Russia during his term. The US is easily one of the top importers of Russian raw products. This was increased by 20% (roughly) under Trump as well.

He was incredibly soft on Russia, incredulous in what he did to enable todays actions in Ukraine; other actions are bordering treasonous behaviour by todays GOP rhetoric.

Well sure you've Finland was always keen on neutrality. Looks certain now to join NATO after what's happening in Ukraine. And the delay in the newness of this war that everyone doesn't know how to proceed. So it looks that Finland will join NATO to be sure.

Kazakhstan was as a country in the very same position as Ukraine. In the last few weeks they said they'll always recognise an independent Ukraine and never recognise if Russia claims a part. Russia is calling Kazakhstan a non state country. And has eyes on its uranium mining industry. They're going to use the Russian population trick against them like Ukraine even though like Ukraine they're planters and in the minority.

They know like Ukraine something is brewing.

Serbia and Hungary will support Putin. Alienating their neighbours in opposition to Putin. Serbia is just cracked. Hungary rules as fair as Russia does it's own.

Turkey will claim neutrality but keep selling Ukraine their drones. It's not in it's interest to have the one powerful dictator controlling the black sea. Anytime up to now they could stop Russian ships going through the Bosphorus. If Putin gets stronger they may not get the right.

Russia really will look for land access to the Adriatic. That puts pressure on the the other balkan states again.

Russia will keep funding more disturbances in the various parts of the EU. E.g Corsica to occupy the French government. Etc, etc.

"Public fear-mongering about the catastrophic consequences of an energy embargo from lobby groups and affiliated think tanks does not hold up to academic standards. "

Enjoyed that last line. Really shows the arrogance of academia with little real world knowledge.

There isn't the supply of alternative oil, coal and gas for much supply to be diverted away from Russia without major shortages.

Alternative supplies aren't just sitting there waiting to be bought, current commodity prices wouldn't be so high if that was the case.

There's issues with transport, they assume adequate boats are there. The russian coal ban will cause demand for ships transporting coal to Europe to double if not treble as it means more days at sea to cover the distance from further away sources and presumably a portion of Russian coal was arriving by rail.

Oil and gas would run into similar issues.

To build the capacity for that would take 5+ years.

Who is going to want to invest in building boats to guarantee an over supply of boats in the market?

In the short to medium term you could see a drop in production of coal, oil and gas as logistics wouldn't be able to keep up.

The combined effect would be at least double the shortage what was modelled in that article.

Eu gas prices would soar, fertiliser would be very cheap at €1000/t (assuming Putin was generousenough to keep shipping it), all heavy industry would be shut. Having inputs hedged would be no saviour as force majeures would be declared.

Foreign holders of euros would sell, so a major drop in the euros value would make the issue of rising input prices even more severe.

We would probably end up in a worse scenario then Russia was in the early days post invasion with the ruble, except we wouldn't be able to pump out anything of value to stabilise the euro.

Lithuania had it all figured out years ago, haven't been able to locate what their current gas costs are but this article shows long-term its economically suicidal for Germany to be paying current gas prices to Vladimir, the fact that one of the smallest counties in Europe has the above infrastructure and Germany as of today hasn't got a single lng terminal says it all really

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1534562/lithuanian-lng-terminal-turns-seven-weapon-against-russia-s-aggressive-energy-policy

Difference is that it's relatively straightforward for them to do it due to size. Germany use 35,000 times the gas that Lithuania uses a year.

For Germany it requires a massive amount of investment and infrastructure, a long-term commitment to it and a need to accept that they're locked into a higher price. As because of their size it's not simple to get those massive quantities needed as it is from Russia.

The eu made its bed. This hasn't been in the making just because of Germany.

It's because of the policies by national governments and Brussels.