Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think the Baltic states are now rolling up their sleeves and may even intervene on the ground. They know that Putin has shot his bolt more or less, and will never be in a position to retaliate conventionally against them.

Come on now, you must approach pronouncements like this from both sides in time of war with a large pinch of salt.

The only sort of definites are what transpires in real time: we know that initial Russian thrust to Kyiv has failed, we see the evidence of much destroyed Russian equipment, we see the ruination of many Ukrainian towns and some cities, we know the Russians have a strong foothold in the east, we know the Ukrainian defence forces are well established there and will be reinforced. We don't know how this battle on a long front will work out, the Russian forces will presumably fix their supply problems and throw a lot in to try and overwhelm, the Ukrainian forces supplied by the West will resist fiercely and try and drive forward. Who will prevail? Who knows but if morale of the troops is a factor, Ukraine has a significant edge.

We shouldn't, we should keep giving Ukraine as much as they ask for and it is sh*tty, but that is the starting and endpoint when MAD exists, whoever says otherwise is a feeble keyboard warrior with no convictions of their own.

The real question is how far countries can keep on pushing back as russia defangs itself in a very stupid way, the west has gained control through all this, russia is making itself a complete joke, china will use russian weakness to push its own agenda.

The people of russia are signed up for a sub-par life that will get worse the longer this goes on.

Hopefully the west supplies Ukraine all that it wants to rebuild and become a flourishing democracy.

And you think that someone 'close to Putin' is credible? One thing we have observed is that the Russian playbook is based on lies and false promises. So only time will tell, you wouldn't trust them an inch.

We must suspect that the Russian military will be very wary of using WMD, because the implications of drawing in other conventional forces is very real and they are in no great condition to continue if that happens. An all out offensive using conventional weapons to take the full Donbas region seems the most likely course.

One thing that fascinates me about all this is how the regime, the state propaganda machine and the legions of Putin groupies would be able to handle a defeat for Russia at the hands of the Ukrainian military. The whole affair and justification for the invasion and war is that is predicated on a Russian victory. A defeat for the regime would surely send all the above into nervous breakdown / straightjacket territory.

I appreciate that he's probably the best of a bad lot (I'm obviously not talking about the general Russian population here).

My assessment of the situation operates on a different level to yours, I already know that we would disagree over whether the description "detached" was a positive or negative attribute.

Unless the Ukrainian military can push Russian forces back to Moscow, which is, ahem, doubtful, I'd say the Russian propaganda machine would be able to spin some kind of win to its domestic audience. It's already been able to flatly deny war crimes and even the fact that Russia is waging war on its neighbour. The layperson of Russia seems pretty well under the thumb as far as the flow of info goes. This is not to say that there aren't Russians who know what's really going on, but I don't think there are enough of them who are also willing to speak out.

As far as nervous breakdowns go, my fear is that what Russia is preparing to do in Eastern Ukraine IS that nervous breakdown. Just slaughter every Ukrainian they can. Man, woman and child, in uniform or out. Sort of like what they had already been doing, but with much more ferocity, purposefulness and ruthlessness. No regard for human rights, the Geneva conventions or basic decency. Only blood lust. Cluster bombs, gas, shelling, roving squadrons of thuggish mercenaries. Every city in the region made a Mariupol if needs be.

Yes, but I still think Russia being forced out of large parts of the Donbass and Crimea ; Mariupol and Kherson being retaken etc would hugely problematic for the regime. Anything that results in Russia having even less territory in Ukraine than it had on February 24th would be nearly impossible for the propagandists to cover up.

If the propaganda machine couldn't cover it up, it could always claim that literal Nazis (given weapons by the West, otherwise Russia would have "totally beaten them by now") are trying to invade 'Russia' (i.e. territories spuriously claimed by Russia), and the N word (not that one) seems a potent catnip to Russians, causing a type of unreason to descend. Could be a good excuse for Putin to go with full mobilisation and ramp up the nationalistic fervour. I think Putin would try to start WW3 before he allows himself to be hounded out of office, so the nearer he feels he's getting to the former, the more reckless he'll get about the latter.

Wibbs, I'm no expert on tanks , and was basing my comment on the following :-

Dec 3, 2018 Steve MacGregor, Guest Author. German Field Marshall von Kleist described the Russian T-34 as ‘the best tank of World War Two .’. Panzer leader General Heinz Guderian claimed that the T-34 enjoyed ‘ vast superiority’ over contemporary German tanks in the early part of the war.

So at one time at any rate, it seems that they were more than a match for the Germans. Maybe they were easier to fix and repair than their German counterparts. But anyway, old an dated as they now are, I still would not like to be at the receiving end of one of their shells, even today.

I've been in a few APC's, and they were claustrophobic enough. I've seen plenty of tanks though, up close and personal, and when I met them any time travelling on the roads, I always yielded right -of- way, no question. I'm very road safety conscious and courteous driver, especially when the tanks were coming in the opposite direction... LOL., Yes I've seen some of The Chieftains videos, they are very good, and informative. He is an expert on the subject.

And as for the Farmers, their expertise on towing Tanks, APC's and other HGV type military hardware is improving with practice and they are now quite professional. That kind of towing is not as easy as they are making it look....😊😊😊

The first atomic bomb explosion was on July 16th 1945 in New Mexico.

Me pointing this out to you is almost (but but not quite) silly as your post

Oh I'd say they believe what their Ukrainian friends / Family are telling them.....but speaking openly about what's happening on the Ukraine side, and speaking openly on the Russian side, are two completely different things...especially when speaking in negative terms about what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Possible sentence of 15 years in a Russian prison. No thank's, Comrade, All Hail Vladimir Putin.