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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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    #4652
    Fighting Tao
    Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118912458#Comment_118912458

    That is all based on a Facebook post. There are now claims that the Facebook account was hacked, and that it’s Russian lies.

    I don’t know where the truth lies, but there will be movies made about the hero’s of Mariupol.



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    #4653
    Lemming
    Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    The facebook post cites Ukranian marines at the port area, not the Asov regiment who are still fighting in the city itself. Colour me sceptical either which way regards the authenticity of the post and claims of Mariupol falling in the next few hours.



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    #4654
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,445 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-take-legal-action-if-forced-into-sovereign-debt-default-newspaper-2022-04-10/

    International law is valid but only when suits. Right. Good one 😎

    What's the basis of the lawsuit exactly? That creditors won't accept repayments in roubles because rouble will be worth about as much as toilet paper rolls soon? 😁



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    #4655
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,445 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118912530#Comment_118912530
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118912854#Comment_118912854
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118912458#Comment_118912458

    Mariupol

    Russian troops hoisted its flag on the roof of Mariupol City Council. The building is located just two blocks from the Drama Theater, and it shows that the Russian progress in Mariupol is slow, despite the Russian propaganda claiming otherwise.

    Yesterday's summary.



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    #4656
    Heraclius
    Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118912854#Comment_118912854

    Stories all over twitter of chemical weapons being used by the Russians in Mariupol now.



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    #4657
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The problem with Mariupol news is that it's almost impossible to independently verify since there are no journalists left on the ground there. As such all of the media are reporting that the chemical attack may have happened but they cannot confirm it.

    Apart from that, a British-Ukrainian marine's unit surrendered to the Russians if his own twitter account is to be trusted (I think it's being run by his family). Here is it being reported elsewhere. The reason being that they have run out of food and ammunition.


    https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1513821127000395779




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    #4658
    Manach
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    Unfortunate news about more civilian deaths. Caritas in Mariupol attacked, 7 dead "#Caritas center in #Mariupol was destroyed. There are victims The building was shot by a russian tank At that time, there were people who were hiding from the shelling and were looking for a safe place. Seven people died, including two of our accounting staff. " - source Twitter account of the Charity.



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    #4659
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Putin has made a public appearance.

    A few observations:

    • His body language looks....less aggressive - more resigned.
    • States two targets "helping the people of the Donbas" and preventing Ukraine being used as a launchpad by Nazis (the second one was a bit vague and all over the place) and says they will be met.
    • The nuclear suitcase shown prominently in the background of the shot


    https://twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1513849216593969153




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    #4660
    holodomor
    Registered Users Posts: 16 ✭holodomor


    It is time for people for each of us to understand -The world became very small , there is no things like a tragedy some where far away so it is not my problem. Would we accept if outside of our window one person was killing another? No. Why do we accept if the same is happening farther away from us???? Why people get massacred in one country and in another we are having a concert going on and we are partying? This is used by tyrants to kill people by turn. When they kill in one country in second people say nothing. When they kill in second in first they say nothing.



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    #4661
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 29,489 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Interesting Twitter thread on constraints on US supply of weapons to Ukraine... really need Germany to step up:

    The U.S. has given #Ukraine 7,000 Javelin ATGMs in recent months -- which is 1/3 of the entire American stock & will take 1+yr to replace.

    Also 2,000 Stingers -- 1/4 of the U.S. inventory, which'll take 5yrs to replace.

    Is this supply sustainable?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1513928788987596801

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #4662
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,445 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Excellent article by Bill Browder who is an expert on Putin's Russia...

    For Putin, It's All About the Money | Time



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    #4663
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,445 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118918491#Comment_118918491

    I don't think Ukrainians need more of this defensive gear at this stage. Russians don't have that many tanks left as far as I can tell. Few thousand Javelins is more than sufficient.

    They now need offensive weapons as the war moves to the stage where they will have to actively repel the Russians out of the territory. Defensive tactics won't work there. They need SAMs (still defensive but needed) the most to eliminate airborne support of the offensive that's coming, and they need modern tanks, artillery and missile systems if they want to think of any counter-offensive on this large area (Donbas and the Azov and Black Sea coastline). They could try naval operation to capture the south but I don't know their capabilities in this area.



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    #4664
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118918491#Comment_118918491

    They don't need them themselves

    Might as well send them and there's probably an economic uplift going on in some cities in the US that produce the stuff



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    #4665
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,970 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118919686#Comment_118919686

    The idea that Trump was actually considering this against decades of american refusals to extradite is insane and yet still wont make a dent with his most loyal cultist sycophants.



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    #4666
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Boom. Swedish governing party have announced that they are targeting joining NATO this year.


    https://twitter.com/WoodfordinDK/status/1514196406147461120


    Prior to the invasion there was only minority support for NATO membership in Sweden and the ruling party did not support it. What a monumental geopolitical own goal this has been by Putin.



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    #4667
    Markcheese
    Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    To be honest ,they might as well join NATO now - Russia is already huffing and puffing at the west including Sweden so there's no major downside ,and once it's done it's done fait accompli-

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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    #4668
    Markcheese
    Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Was listening to someone who reckons Russia is finished as an "energy power"

    The EU is pivoting away as fast as they can ,and more importantly they rely on western companies for the technical no how to get the stuff out of the ground and shipped - the west has no interest in being end customer and western companies just got massively burned on their joint ventures in Russia ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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    #4669
    ronivek
    Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118920793#Comment_118920793

    I've seen it stated that any motion to join NATO would likely require at least a 75% majority in the Riksdag. That's a pretty significant hurdle considering that the Government currently holds only 100/349 seats along with a confidence and supply agreement which brings them up to 175/349.

    Although I do see that the largest opposition party (Moderate Party) with 70/349 seats has also pledged to join NATO.

    I'm not familiar enough with Swedish politics to know how effective their whip system is or if they often have free votes for such matters; but presumably a 75% majority isn't a foregone conclusion?



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    #4670
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,717 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118922349#Comment_118922349

    All I can see if that the Social Democrats suggesting it should need a 75% majority, but no indication that it actually does.



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    #4671
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    So if Finland join, that'll leave Russia with the longest european land border now with a NATO country?

    That's not going to go down well in the kremlin

    Means there's no real impediment to Ukraine joining



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    #4672
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,503 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118919698#Comment_118919698

    Russia could have 10,000 or more tanks. The amount of those that are in service and modern is a lot less, but they would easily have a thousand working T-90, T-80 and recently refurbed T72 still left. Again, they cant commit all of those to Ukraine at once, but equally not every Javelin will destroy a tank. Many are captured, miss, or used on a less well armoured vehicle. Ukraine needs sufficient numbers (and the troops experienced in using them) to be able to demonstrate a capacity to comfortably resist even mass tank invasions on several fronts at once while having enough spare for counter strikes to make their use uneconomical for Russia.

    By uneconomical, I dont mean to sound callous, but Russia wants to manufacture and sell its tanks to other countries. No one is going to buy a $5m tank that can be easily defeated by a $150k missile. So the Ukrainian strategy is that if they seem like they have massive tank busting capacity, Russia wont chance a large scale tank invasion (again).

    As regards offensive weapons such as tanks, the moment one Abrams, Leopard, Challenger or Leclerk crosses into Donbas, Putins claim of Ukraine being a NATO staging post are justified.

    The West could however help with parts and Eastern European supplies of old soviet inventory.

    Ukraines main tank building / repairing factory was in Kharkiv, so again having a hedgehog of defences around there would be important for them long term.

    The problem with large, medium to long range SAM systems is that they are a big target for the Russians, and they are also difficult to bring in undetected. Russia has claimed it has destroyed all Ukrainian S300 batteries, including one which was donated by another European Country. They are also very difficult to train people into. These are more of a medium term investment rather than an immediate need.

    The best thing overall right now would be more drones of the small, easy to use variety. Russia seems to tolerate Turkey supplying the Barachtar drones, and they have a longer range than the javelin so would be able to hit Russian vehicles before they get to the front.

    Even basic ammo and such are all needed. Rations, medical supplies, uniforms, comms etc. It all adds up

    Finally, and perhaps just as important as weapons, is civil and humanitarian aid to stop Ukraines economy and society collapsing.

    So basically Ukraine needs more of everything



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    #4673
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I see Simon Coveney is meeting with the Ukrainians in Kyiv....is this another solidarity mission?

    What can do they in person they can't do in zoom?



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    #4674
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118924858#Comment_118924858

    I presume it is largely to do with optics; the west showing they stand with Ukraine but as he is from a neutral country, it can't be claimed to be plotting some military intervention. But we all know that there is nothing that will satisfy you.



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    #4675
    kksaints
    Registered Users Posts: 4,835 ✭✭✭kksaints


    He's also the first foreign minister from a member of the UN security Council to visit Ukraine since Russia invaded.



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    #4676
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Surprised not to see any posts about the missile attack on the Moscova. It appears that Ukraine hit a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, with 2 missiles and all the crew had to be evacuated. Russian media have confirmed the damage and evacuation but claim it was to do with a fire onboard.

    This is a huge PR and military coup for Ukraine. From a PR point of view the Moscova is/was the flag ship vessel of the Russian naval fleet in the Black Sea. From a military point of view that ship had 64 SAMs on it and was a huge blocker for Ukrainian aircraft in southern Ukraine.

    The memes on twitter last night were pretty funny about this.



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    #4677
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118925320#Comment_118925320

    And? Does it move Ukraine closer to winning?



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    #4678
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118922349#Comment_118922349

    All opposition parties are for joining Nato; if they put up a vote it will go through. The only two parties that are against it are the Greens and the ex Communist party. They (Government) want it done with coordination of Finland and they want it done before election (August) to not have to go into an election cycle explaining why they don't want to join Nato (and of course the opposition would try to out match each other in how much they would give to the armed forces).



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    #4679
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I heard yesterday that in Finland 194 out of 200 MPs are likely to support it so it's a done deal there.

    There are still many Fins alive who remember the winter war and the territory that they lost to end it. They will never had an opportunity that is politically easier to join NATO than at this moment.



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    #4680
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,354 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118925345#Comment_118925345

    That the world has swung behind Ukraine so definitively has, arguably, been helped by the media blitz conducted by Zelenskyy; part of that has been courting (or in some cases, shaming) world leaders into doing their part and supplying arms. Now that it's relatively safe to visit Kyiv, it stands to reason leaders now speak to the man directly.

    Ireland has done its part in showing compassion and open doors to the refugees (even if there are definite speed bumps and teething problems); maintaining good relations with a helpful neighbour helps Ukraine keep that port of safety open. That Ireland are part of the Security Council ATM is only gravy to that constant conversation.

    Ukraine aren't going to "win" this in a straight-up scrap. They can only hope to outlast the Russian war machine's appetite for destruction. Part of that is keeping world leaders engaged, and invested.



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    #4681
    amandstu
    Registered Users Posts: 3,555 ✭✭✭amandstu


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118925345#Comment_118925345

    That is right.Not as if the Irish government supports the Ukranian people in its fight for survival against a fascistic neighbour or anything like that.

    A bit of ritual humiliation might have been more effective and kept us onboard with the regime at the Kremlin.



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