Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

300 jobs announced by Citi, 1,000 by Workday and Tik Tok hoping to grow it's Dublin workforce to 5,000. A lot of the big employers in Dublin, in the tech area, have only just started to bring people back to the office as well.

All the while there are now 465 ads for rentals in Dublin city.

It clearly doesn't add up and for some reason the penny is not dropping that our economy is going to stall and contract, unless we take extreme measures to dramatically reduce the cost of housing while at the same time bulking up supply. But for me that time has passed and the economic model has started to turn to sand in our hands and is now sifting between our fingers while we are powerless to stop it.

I don't think basic DIY should be on the secondary curriculum. People learn from their families how to change lightbulbs, don't they?

What the government are doing is raising the status of apprenticeships with the Technological Universities (more similar to how it is in Germany I believe) and Simon Harris has said the explicit aim of this new university policy is for more people to be drawn to apprenticeships.

you mention buses and it reminds me of a bus route in cork city that still had a bus conductor 15 years after they introduced paying the driver on the way into the bus…He was there till he retired…..if that is a good example of a well run semi state body and value for money then I will stick with private sector building whether directly for gov under contract or in the private sector

If someones liability increases even in NI the cost of insurance goes up.

Insurance costs in this country are a whole other kettle of fish - combination of price gouging from underwriters, and price gouging from the legal sector.

When fighting a claim and winning costs more than just paying out at the outset, you know the system is screwed up. Legal costs have significant impact on the cost of almost everything, passed on mostly via insurers.

That said, even if builders had to cover liabilities in building via their own insurance, cost to deliver should still work out cheaper than if the state had to build themselves, or if the builders had to raise finance themselves and build their own. State tendering for houses on state land is the cheapest and most effective way to deliver housing.

What? You've been here predicting MNCs would stop investing, yet they clearly still are. Maybe, just maybe, our economy isn't going to stall and contract. There's very little to indicate that it will...

See the Independent today what ever about Ireland, but Germany, France and Italy Europe's major Economies have 6-10% Inflation indexed or linked bonds out of their total bonds. All this Inflation is really not looking good for them in particular Italy which is teetering on a knife edge this last few years.

House prices aren't going to drop any time soon, new builds are increasing circa €30k around here since the last phase but still affordable to those on higher incomes with HTB and those that cant afford the uplift are being forced to bid in the 2nd hand market driving up that too.

The two main risks I see at the moment are people signing up for a new build with a "you have to pay materials inflation" clause from the developer coming back to bite them big time and people signing up to sweet low fixed rates from banks with catastrophic variable rates, what are people guessing will be the available fixed rates in 5 years time?

The maths don't add up with new jobs announcements (remember, these are still only announcements) versus rentals and we are literally only a few weeks out of covid restrictions. Give it a year post-covid for the dust to settle, so come spring 2023 we will start to see the economy stalling.

While this is happening across the developed world, we seem to have arrived at the dysfunctional state a lot quicker than other economies. While there can be some argument that a lot of this is due to wider European and global issues, we seem to be the outlier. It is difficult to get good rented accommodation across European towns and cities but by no means not impossible. Dublin, it really does appear to be nigh on impossible unless someone can come on here and tell me otherwise.

It must be a mix of issues that have now all come together and left us where it is now. Decades of not really having a serious willingness to treat renting as anything other than transient housing or just available for social housing with that stock diminished through sell offs with no real efforts to replace it, like for like.

Dublin - a rather unique example of a capital city, with predominately low rise housing stock. A population that never needed to, or even wanted to, consider apartment living as long term.

And 10 years + beyond the crash we appear to have arrived as the main exponent of this exercise by the financial property conglomerates, with our own government support, to deliver high end, in terms of cost, rented accommodation, for the benefit of the investor rather than the customer.

I'm sure there are more reasons but they seem to be the main ones to me.

Not everything is going up, purely anecdotal but still:

This 3bed/2bath duplex with terrace sold 616k just now. Oddly already strikes me better vfm than most houses in County Dublin at similar prices given the potential rent of 2500-3000pcm

apt 27 without terrace sold 650k 5y ago

these are worst case “identical” price level. I’d take the own door duplex over the other.

people are just all rushing into the same thing right now…

Another observation:

have we seen Peak Dublin county rents???

3550 is pre covid level.

same agent had these going 3800-4000 late last year:

https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-carnagie-drive-honeypark-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin/3642689

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building on flood plains? What could possibly go wrong!

Hearing alot of rumours this last 2 weeks about PJ Hegartys being in bother. These lads are probably the second biggest construction company after Sisk, no smoke without fire, this high inflation and fixed pricing seems to be causing havoc in the construction sector.