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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,518 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I'm reading some interesting discussions of hundreds of Russian officers and soldiers in Ukraine simply resigning their posts and asking to be returned home - and there is not a damned thing the authorities can do about it. The country claims not to be at war, there is no martial law back in Russia or any type of emergency legislation in place. Therefore the men can resign quite legally and there is nothing the army can do about it.





  • Russia has been trying to disarm Ukraine for the last 30 years so that they could easily invade it






  • Except to declare war, they will probably have alot of false flag operations leading up to that



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Having failed to find any mention of these, could you please provide a link.

    The only drones that I have seen any confirmation of listed for the next shipment batch are the Switchblades, which had Ukraians being trained to use in the US. The predator and Reaper drones would require training, again probably in the US, as there's a bit more to them than a DJI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08



    Some booby traps found in Ukraine.

    Also pictured in the thread is this one which people are questioning it's viability.

    A grenade in a glass in a press. (cabinet)

    There is also A reply in thread says

    "When I did my military service, we were still trained in setting up such booby traps (and, of course in finding and disarming them).

    Today, the German #Bundeswehr doesn't do that any more. It is prohibited by the Ottawa Treaty of 1997" .

    So silly question does that mean they don't train to disarm now?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,290 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    People possibly thought Stalin would be a more moderate figure than Lenin in 1924...

    If you have another FSB\SVR type taking over, I wouldn't expect much change. Remember it's not as though there's a real political spectrum in Russia with putative replacement leaders that offer a discernible alternative.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Probably not what you are looking for but the best source I have found is the Ukraine armed forces own telegram channel. Lots of detail on far more things than are picked up by normal media, such as the large problem they are having with criminal gangs, secret infiltration groups and local officials like mayors, who are all being used to try and find and organise traitors to stab Ukraine in the back and sabotage from within. There's a disturbing amount of that going on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    That probably explains all the false flag attacks on Belgorod with no Ukrainian helicopters shot down at all - something that Uk youtube historian Felton fell for, hook, line and sinker. These false flag terrorist incursions are probably so a war or emergency situation can be declared to glue the bag shut.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    🙄

    Actual infrastructure Russia is relying on being damaged does not suggest it is a false flag. If they wanted to do that they'd bomb an apartment block.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I would hope the sanctions remain in place until all the abducted Ukrainian children and adults are returned and reparations have been sorted, like 40% of the oil and gas revenues until every single building and bridge has been rebuilt; both of which might take years to get agreement on, given Russia's obduracy and fondness for lying and stupid games.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I wouldn't agree with that at all. If the Ukrainians are forced to keep fighting Russia, they will bleed their military to ruin and taking back all former territories would be a piece of cake compared to what has gone before and their national rage and hatred of Russia would ensure it. The only way for Russia to retain those is to capitulate under the guise of 'peace talks' and have holding onto them a condition - which has to happen right now. If they wait until after the looming great battle in the east has mostly played out, it will be too late. I don't see Putin being smart enough to see that. He's sick and anything but sharp.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    The only drones or unmanned vehicles being supplied by the US are:

    • AeroVironment Switchblade 300 and 600 loitering munitions.
    • AeroVironment Puma reconnaissance drones.
    • Some sort of "unmanned surface vessel for coastal defence".

    It's also likely the UK have sent some Switchblades too.

    There was a meeting between General Atomics and Ukraine which discussed the potential for supplying drones; but given the modern cost of these drones I would be surprised if Ukraine wanted Reapers in particular. Predator drones potentially.

    Even more surprising would be if the US approved such a transfer to Ukraine for the same reasons they've used all along: Ukraine aren't trained to use them, Ukraine don't really need them, logistics would be too complicated, Russia wouldn't be very happy, etc.

    And probably the biggest issue with Predator and/or Reaper drones is that they can be controlled from the US directly by US pilots; how does anyone convince Russia that they're not being flown by US pilots if they're involved over Ukraine? I don't see Biden going down this path.

    The British anti-ship missile thing also isn't credible: they haven't had land launched anti-ship missiles capable of hitting a large ship at those kind of distances for quite some time according to people with ties to the British Forces.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Regarding one of the intercepted phone calls that some couldn't believe were real, one investigation discovered and confirmed the identities of the two people in one particular phone call




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,658 ✭✭✭storker


    No wonder the Republicans hate her so much. Get some, AOC.

    😀




  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The couldn't steal it, so the mined it:

    We have already sen the tractor that hit a mine; I saw another which was a burned out truck in which two power line rpairmen were blown up and severly injured in after hitting a mine on the job.

    When this is over the Ukrainians should build large medieval style catapults near the border and load all the mines and booby traps they find over the next decades - and return them whence they came.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    The cyber warfare aspect is interesting becasue for years we were told how WW3 would have a large element fought over the internet but this hasnt transpired to any great extent. There was reports in the first few days of the war that Russia attempted cyber attacks on Ukraine but they clearly didnt succeed. Since then Russia have done a cyber attack on Finnish government websites at the very same time that Zelenskyy was giving a speech to their parliament. That didnt work either as the Finns had the websites back up live again in under an hour.

    Also at play here is that Russia successfully attacked Ukraines electricity network in 2015, they took down the power to 250,000 people while they were invading Crimea. It was the first successful cyber attack on energy infrastructure in history. Since that attack Ukraine significantly beefed up its cyber defences and no subsequent Russian attack has been successful. In the opening days of the war Russia took down some 70 Ukrainian government websites but they were all restored within hours.

    Another factor is that in 2016 the US were also attacked by the Russians during the Presidential election that Trump won. After that and the shock of a successful Russian attack on a US election the entire US intelligence community regrouped and the US Cyber Command in the Pentagon hired over 1,200 IT security specialists out of the private sector and in to the military. They made no secret that their stated target was Russia and they spoke of having malware ready to go to hit them. They also said they were moving from defensive cyber warfare to offensive and the rules were changed so that cyber warfare operations would no longer need approval from the President, the Pentagon has a free rein to do what they want without the President even knowing.

    So while we wont know exactly what is going on in cyber warfare during this invasion for some time to come what is known is that both the US and Ukraine are well set up to thwart Russian attacks. So it would seem to me that whats happening in the background isnt that Russia arent trying to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, they are as they have done in the past. But similar to their ground offensive in Ukraine it isnt working very well, if at all. Either the Ukrainians have the capability to thwart Russian cyber attacks on their own or else they are working in tandem with the Americans to do it. Given the easy plausible deniability available to the Pentagon (even Biden doesnt know what they are up to) Id say their hands are all over this either through assisting the Ukrainians themselves or just gong to the source and hitting Russian hackers directly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    The general consensus seems to be that the sinking of the Moskva has virtually no direct military consequences for Russia. Politically sure, economically as they effectively can't replace the vessel, somewhat of a morale hit to Russian forces maybe.

    Russia already has several S400 batteries in Crimea with maximum missile ranges illustrated below; and also has numerous shorter range systems deployed in Ukraine itself:

    So no, unfortunately the sinking of the Moskva hasn't really altered the potential for Ukraine to attack Russian targets via the air unless we're talking about ships a good distance away from Crimea and skirting the Romanian/Bulgarian coasts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The first attack on the Airfild was likely the real deal, but the fuel depot and others with helicopters probably weren't. If Ukraine denied it, which they did, I'll take their word on it. They aren't shy about mentioning their successes.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ukraine didn't deny it. They refused to comment on it.

    A) you don't deliberately damage or destroy your own infrastructure

    B) Russia didn't actually use the attacks as a reason for anything afterwards so what would the point have been?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    I'm pretty sure Ukraine aren't actually interested in talking right now. Bucha has steeled their resolve and they're working to eke out a military victory over Russia before heading back to the negotiating table; or at least to further frustrate them and force negotiations form a stronger position.

    Personally I don't think it's likely and I fear they're going to lose most or all of the Donbass/Novorossiya regions over the coming weeks. I very much hope I'm wrong however.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,908 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    The general concensus of whom ?

    It's an interesting one.

    First it didn't happen.

    Then it did happen but it was ok and saved.

    Then no oops it was lost due to the weather.

    Now it doesn't matter and has no impact.


    Oh and notice , we don't talk about it more it's crew.


    Mad stuff all the same when you peel back the changing narrative over the last few days. Don't you think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,746 ✭✭✭zv2


    The Russians have two big problems. One is they can't target the Ukrainians easily because they are spread out like ants. Another is there are trainloads of dead and busted Orks going back to Russia and this can't go on indefinitely. A war of attrition will really grind them down. More weapons!

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    The general consensus of OSINT and military analysts who post online.

    And the changing narrative is explained very simply:

    1. Information is released from usually one or two initial sources; greeted with healthy doses of scepticism.
    2. More sources release corroborating evidence: in this case we saw signals intelligence indicated the Moskva was in distress.
    3. "Official" sources such as the US or Russian MoD in this case confirm something happened.
    4. "Official" sources release more conclusive statements on what they think happened; or we start to see concrete photo/video evidence.
    5. Analysts and journalists try to make sense of what happened and put it in context of the wider war.

    So no, it's not "mad stuff", it's simply a perfectly natural and expected process that occurs in this world of instant gratification and instant news that things crystallise over time into something which is (hopefully) more fully understood.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    "you don't deliberately damage or destroy your own infrastructure"

    Bear in mind this is Russia we are talking about, it really wouldn't surprise me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,916 ✭✭✭ronivek


    For a Russian false flag I would expect to see a "cheap" civilian target hit and civilian casualties. Nothing that the Kremlin actually values like fuel, caviar, yachts, etc.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if they let off bombs in Russian cities in an effort to blame Ukraine. Destroying vital infrastructure makes no sense on multiple levels - it doesn't engage your citizenry to the same degree and it hampers your actual goals.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Air defence is only as good as its radar and there is something called over the horizon when it comes to Radar.

    Those numbers and ranges are not realistic at all.

    Thats why Moskva was were she was to cover the rest



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @ronivek There was a meeting between General Atomics and Ukraine which discussed the potential for supplying drones; but given the modern cost of these drones I would be surprised if Ukraine wanted Reapers in particular. Predator drones potentially.


    Even more surprising would be if the US approved such a transfer to Ukraine for the same reasons they've used all along: Ukraine aren't trained to use them, Ukraine don't really need them, logistics would be too complicated, Russia wouldn't be very happy, etc.


    The consensus suggest they can have Ukrainians to fly reapers in less than 6 weeks they aren't overly complicated you can pilot them on a playstation controller and for most part their operations are automated ,the main Job of any pilot is reading the information they are looking at and target acquisition and firing a missle ,

    The ground stations are based in shipping containers and can easily be flown to Poland or Ukraine it's self ,

    At this stage of the game putins threats are all sound bites , Finland and Sweden are plowing ahead with nato memberships despite threats , heavy weapons are still flowing into ukraine via friendly States despite threats from Moscow.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia, mayor says fire almost out

    Ukraine's top security official rebuffed the Russian accusation - the first by Moscow of an air strike on Russian soil since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24. Belgorod is one of Russia's main logistics hubs for the war.

    "For some reason they say that we did it, but according to our information this does not correspond to reality," said Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov."

    The point might be to compile a list of 'incidents'.



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