Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Can you stop talking that nonsense?

its annoying and repetitive.

answera simple question: why isn’t Argentina rich then?

Can't beat innovation

Turkey is a special case….gov who won’t listen to every economist in the world…..total disaster by incompetent government that don’t understand the basics of running a country.

Bla, Bla, Bka.......chicken licken running around again shouting the sky is falling in.

Most US mortgages are generally fixed rates varying from 5-30 year rates.the 15 year rate is slightly above 4% in 2019 they were at about 3.5%. they dropped to 3.25% in 2020.

As most mortgages payments are based on these 10+year rates new higher rates only effect those finishing a fixed rate term( however they have access to a variable which is about 4% at present). It will take interest rates remaining high for 5 years plus before they effect a substantial amount of borrowers.

So chuck, chuck,chuck

Looking at it this way an investor must now out in 30% equity. Say you bought a two bed apartment for 400k. If you put in 120 equity and borrowers 280k your repayments on a 28 year fixed for five years would be less than 1300/ month. Such apartments are makeing 2k+/month in rental income.

Great maybe Argentina should issue debt in their own currency then. How’s that working for them…

I wonder do Poland have a newspaper called the polish Times with a section

This is what €400k gets you in country x

The bubble is global folks. Looking at insanity in country x is not justification for insanity in our own country

Far too low, when inflation is at 7% and rising

It's not necessarily about rates going up but QE needs to stop a year ago! In a supply shock environment it is just fuel for the fire. With QE and asset prices being definitively correlated, it is obvious what happens with some QT.

Saw this article today which also touches on the topic I've been ranting about the last number of months, that the MNC gravy train is the epitome of normalcy bias in action and the boon of the last few years absolutely cannot be relied upon going forward. 60% of our corporate tax comes from the top ten companies and our public spending is so wasteful that, should the gravy train stall, we don't have much of a rainy day fund and belts will have to tighten once again.

This is my link to property, summarising what has happened and what may happen going forward;

• Since 2013 we started to see the economy recover and big companies started hiring and expanding their workforce.

• We received a big net immigration boost as a result with all of these workers needing somewhere to live.

• Housing supply was slow to react to this rapid and significant boost to our working population which pushed up rents.

• Because there was such a shortage of rentals, it meant that we had workers renting everything even family, suburban houses together and this meant that all properties were then increasing in value as they could be rented out for an excellent yield (rising tide lifting all boats); the value of properties increased due to their rental yield, even those that were never rented!

• The government, with its institutional driven property policies continued to ensure muted supply in the face of ever rising demand, thus pushing the market even higher.

• This included introducing ways to even encourage valuations to climb higher (eg Help-to-buy, RPZs, social housing leases and HAP putting a floor under the rental market).

• More and more workers arrived into Ireland and demand for rentals soared ever higher, matching with the rise in workers here.

• These same companies, should they stall their employee growth plans or even reduce headcount, for whatever reason (eg corporate tax reforms, expectation of lower future earnings because of higher borrowing costs, wfh policies, too expensive for housing in Ireland etc), would greatly impact demand for rentals and therefore materially and detrimentally impact out entire housing market (my own view is that the penny should already have dropped that we are in serious trouble here, economically, by not treating our lack and cost of housing as an emergency).

• Demand for rentals decreasing would impact the entire property market.

It looks like it will take, in the absence of any effort by our government to fix the problem, a big company to pull the plug on Ireland (citing a host of reasons) for the government and society to finally see that actually the economy and property market is mightily vulnerable and exposed, perhaps not as stable as we thought. Sad, but it will be too late when that happens and the heads will be scratched, blame will be given to anything but the squandering of cash (into things like propping up the property market) that we had since 2014.

Is it just a lag but if the market rates have increased due to the ECB reducing bond purchases (?) how come mtge rates have not increased. I might have missed it but the only one I saw was the announcement from ICS a few weeks back. I would have expected all others to follow suit and possibly even add in some buffer.

I would add that releasing oil stocks from national strategic reserves to bring down oil prices is high risk and playing into Put! N hands. There could be a very high price to pay

This winter will be when that price will have to be paid, when food prices and energy prices cause european wide social unrest then we may see action in terms of hit the brakes throw us of the rodeo and then start QE and let's all ride the rodeo again