Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The ECB is totally ignoring its mandate - rates should be rocketing up.

It doesn't exist to finance governments paying people to sit at home or sending weapons to Ukraine, it's supposed to be maintaining the purchasing power of our currency.

Baffling that Germany is silent.

If rates rise meaningfully, a devastating recession is inevitable. All of the heads (Lane, Lagarde etc) will have their careers go down in flames as it will show that the accommodative policy of recent years was not needed for as long as it was used. This will show that they largely failed in their careers. They just want to hang on for a bit longer until retirement so they don't get blamed when proper action needs to be taken and the recession happens. Biting the bullet sooner rather later is the best thing to do but price stability is the mandate of the ECB and they are failing at it; a full year of high inflation and fumbling around predictions should have us all terrified that they have lost control of the situation.

I suspect the artillery is being rested for fear of spooking French voters

There will be 100% a tribunal for ABP in 20 years time!

For anyone who wants to feel like they are helping to change our property market, here is an opportunity. As members of the great unwashed, as we are, there is an entitlement for us to attend the next stage of the Central Bank's mortgage measures framework review which is taking place as a conference.

Day 1 - a discussion on the importance of borrower-based measures.

Day 2 - first session of the day will feature influential policymakers from different countries that have implemented similar measures. In the second panel senior international experts will explore how the macroprudential framework for mortgage lending remains fit for purpose in the future, amid broader changes in the financial system and economy.

https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-conference-in-next-step-of-mortgage-measures-framework-review-19-April-2022

It all dovetails with the public consultations https://www.centralbank.ie/financial-system/financial-stability/macro-prudential-policy/mortgage-measures/mortgage-measures-framework-review-public-engagement

the results of which were published here https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/financial-system/financial-stability/macroprudential-policy/mortgage-measures/detailed-results-of-online-engagement-survey.pdf?sfvrsn=8

Some of my summary on the public consultations;

• 42% of respondents were private renters, 24% mortgaged home owners, 21% living with family friends and 5% owning homes outright.
• 85% of non-homeowners were planning to buy in the next 12-18 months versus 36% of homeowners. 78% of those planning to buy would be FTBs.
• The main reasons people weren't planning on buying were as we all expect; price, deposit rule and lack of suitable properties.
• Only 52% of people believe that the mortgage measures have been successful in preventing another credit-fuelled boom. But 71% agree that they have an impact on an ongoing basis.
• 61% believe the measures have had an effect beyond their intention, with affordability constraints being stated as the biggest impact.
• Affordability constraints and changing the rules were head and shoulders above any other factor for ensuring a sustainable mortgage market, according to respondents.
• Affordability and supply are by far the biggest factors in driving the housing and mortgage markets forward, which representative groups also cited as their reasons.
• Affordability constraints, deposit rule, feeling disenfranchised and social impacts were all interlinked as being the biggest impact of the mortgage measures, according to the personal insights of the respondents.

Are you on the housing/affordable purchase list.

Im aware of a family that had a sale fall through as they were unable to get their savings into the country on time (covid related) for the deposit.

They have since been offered a new council house with the rent at a fraction of what the mortgage would have been

This is what "getting out at the top of the market" looks like and this is how the Irish taxpayer will be on the hook once again when the correction happens, having found that our proxies, acting on very thin authority, squandered our precious and short-term corporate tax on high public spending such as the pursuance of this incredibly wasteful and poor value social housing policy.

€442,307 per unit for what is effectively a collection of new dwellings at a roundabout at the edge of Bray.

Good to hear from you Jimmy I know we dont agree on a lot of things but I do agree with you on this. Its pitiful that this issue cannot get traction.

Some hit for Netflix today, I guess consumer spending is slowing up due to inflation and people cutting back on services. Wonder what happens when some of the big cap heavies don't hit their targets and their shares get pulled. Couple all this with investment banks getting hammered in the bond markets as well as their exposure to Russia sanctions and Sri Lanka's imminent default on their bonds, there is most probably rocky waters ahead.

Deutsche Bank could be in big trouble I'd be suspicious when big money hedge fund investors seem to be pulling moneys out of them at a rapid pace, especially when the news about Sri Lanka came through.

Silver bullets for greening and housing held up by regulation

Waterford Whisepers take on current never ending sky rocketing house prices: Estate Agent Is Back Baby! He’s Back!

IT’S been a long, hard road out of hell for Waterford estate agent Cody Lenehan, but he’s finally in a position where he can kick back and ‘let the houses sell themselves’ once again.

“Yeah there’s an offer already in on that property, 20 over asking. No wait, 25 over asking, yeah that’s what I meant,” said Lenehan during one phone call today, as bidding on a 3-bedroom semi on the outskirts of town reached 2007-era levels.

“Listen, you want it or you don’t, I’ve another call coming in so I have to go,” he concluded, even though, and we were here to witness it, he did not have another call coming in.

Having spent the aftermath of the property crash actually working for a living, Lenehan (and others like him) have expressed relief that the housing crisis in Ireland has created an insatiable desire for property at any cost, adding that it’s ‘about time’ that estate agents got to enjoy the spoils of the period.

“Property developers are making an absolute killing out there so it’s only right that agents such as myself get our beaks wet too,” explained Lenehan, while scheduling property viewing times for when suits him best, not the customer.

“And I have to say, it’s just so good to be back. We’re making up for years of losses with the amount of money we’re making each month. And not only that, this time it’s going to last forever! There’s no way those in charge will make the same mistakes twice, so it’s just all boom, baby!”

But the policy pursuant to which the purchase of these apartments was made has been renownedly cited as being a poor policy, representing bad value to the state. This policy has resulted in individual buyers being elbowed out, the State effectively inflating property values with its deep pockets and lack of interest in stimulating a dramatic increase in supply and a situation where brand new homes are being rented out below market value (directly subsidized by the Irish tax payer) to those who are struggling largely because of the poorly functioning housing market resulting in affordability issues, which encourages rents to go higher due to the private rental market loss of these apartments and therefore indirectly private renters are now paying more.

Your attitude is a bit of a "sure it's grand" but I think your standards with respect to what is working in our property market is so low that you are almost starting to justify the current situation which is ludicrous and perhaps you are of the view that the housing crisis is not actually an emergency and barely is a crisis?

Why does the government not help pay to sort other issues like fire safety in apartment blocks?

I can't think of one measure implemented by government that has not increased the price of housing in the last decade.

If we have an affordability issue and the state has plenty of land, access to low cost finance and all their policies are on the demand side with not a single supply side measure, one cannot seriously stand over a comment like

"of course they want to solve it"

The first step to solving it is to stop making it worse. We haven't reached that step yet

Im so glad to find someone who agrees with me.

Too many people here think the govenrment somehow are happy to have a housing crisis and that the ministers arent at least trying.

I believe they are, but I also believe that in an effort to be "seen" to be trying, they have, and are continuing to make it far worse than it ever should have been.