Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Consumer sentiment falls sharply for second month in a row as cost of living crisis spirals

The consumer sentiment index fell from 67.0 in March to 57.7 in April. The index now stands some significant distance below its long term average of 86.6, “signalling a very nervous Irish consumer at present”, the statement read.

What has lack of regulation got to do with the famous acting dog?😂

We don't have a laissez-faire situation here, because the government DO set standards for regulating construction, they just do not enforce it at all. So ultimately liability rests with them for not enforcing. Thats why homebond and insurances wont payout (or at least what they claim)

Remember when they tried to tell us that we're heading back to boom-town:

That boorish nonsense seems to have disappeared from the rhetoric entirely.

And that Indo article was based on the Central Bank's economic bulletin, which now looks, only 3 months later, like it has been humbled. But the competence of those in public service is incomparable to those in the private sector so I don't have any faith in our central banks that the "soft landing" can be managed from the situation of high inflation and asset bubbles. It will happen soon because there is no way that inflation can run as hot as it is for the rest of this year, let alone into next year. Populism is inevitable and the problems in the EU with populism will get worse which the whole EU project cannot afford, especially if the UK ends up looking like it is doing much better than us.

However, if you believe that this time it's different, then the "recession" will actually not really affect the individual property market participant as much as before. Renters will be greeted with less demand for rentals so may end up with lower rents; homeowners from the Celtic Tiger years are now in the clear and buyers in the last few years have been limited in how much they could borrow so are unlikely to go much into negative equity. The "recession" in the property market will largely be a paper recession for individuals, where they had understood the value of their home was X, when actually it has ended up (X-Y% drop), but they won't have actually "lost" anything. The big losers are the commercial landlords of offices, but I would also hazard a guess that the expensive BTR (i.e. €2k+ per month) new build apartment blocks and student accommodation providers will have to write down the value of their holdings, which, in their case, is vital to their "performance" and a drop in valuation of a certain amount will trigger immediate repayment clauses in borrowing facilities.

Long story short; for property it will be a paper recession only where home owners actually just experienced a drop in the value of their home which is not a loss at all. Institutionals still in the market have more to lose as paper losses to valuations are everything to them.

Just wait until next month when the wage subsidy is gone, reduced consumer spending and high running costs hit businesses.

For the last time, general and especially theoretical economics stuff is not on topic here. Far too much leeway has been given in the past. Stop it now and stop it for good. Do not reply to this post.

At least there all penny's bags so some clues were put in the article. Some intern taking the....

I'd say it would take some down turn for that particular group of ladies to be that thrilled about their purchases at Pennys

I note you carefully sidestepped the issue of the exodus of former tds/politicians to the lobbying business

Probably the most damaging to Irish society in recent history and heavily flagged by the imf when they were running the show.

Speaking of Cairns, found this sentence interesting from TASC's recently released report on land and housing.

i think its often built into bank lending as well, maybe even planning its to avoid ghost estates.

jesus this crap again!

yes it is common for public debt to be continually rolled over until fully serviced, this can be as long as a century, as was the case with the uks first world war debts. this tends to work very successfully for developed economies such as ours, as the debts can be used for providing an economies needs, increasing economic activities, thus providing that country with the means of servicing these debts.

once again, central banks are currently stuck in a low rate environment, largely due to the amount of debt in circulation, in particular private debt in developed nations, increasing rates would simply mean a large proportion of these debts would become unserviceable, leading to a significant increase in defaults and non performing loans etc..... central banks know this, hence why the ecb in particular is currently sitting on the fence in regards increasing rates, i.e. theyre stuck, and they know it!

once again, debt is our money supply, i.e. no debt means no money supply, means economic collapse! but this is a difficult balancing act, too much debt, particularly in the private domain, simply means more and more income goes towards debt servicing, means less money available for the purchase of goods and services, again in the private domain. this is why increasing public debt was critical during covid, as there was a significant fall in the demand for private debt, i.e. credit, without which, our economies would have simply collapsed, and it worked. i.e. we cannot afford not to increase public debt right now, as its looking very likely theres going to be significant problems ahead!

Not sure if you following what’s going on but bonds arr absolutely roasted today. Bond market moves historically ALWAYS lead the central banks not the other way around…