Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

of course they should covid is over, employers cant get enough workers and our glorious always never ending upwards property market is absolutely exploding at present ...

what could go wrong..

Why are you so concerned about Deutsche bank?

Hedge funds deposits leaving would be welcomed as they cost the bank as they attract 100% outflows.

They successfully issued AT1 bonds during the week which means that investors in these bonds are not concerned as they would loose all their investment if the bank went bust.

Sri Lanka default is very unlikely to cause major issues for European banks unless they have issued cds for Sir Lanka bonds. Deutsche Bank has a private bank out there so will have some exposure to a devalued currency but it should limited and won’t be something that I could see materially impacting the bank.

None of the Irish banks will have material exposure to sir Lanka so it won’t impact on mortgage lending or Irish house prices.

All banks will have market risk and interest rate risk limits so will have hedged risk to the bond market by purchasing IRD’s or asset swaps so I don’t see that impacting irish banks ability to issue mortgages so won’t directly impact the Irish housing market.

Where a risk does exist is in less regulated entities such as funds that are exposed to longer rates chasing yield and that will be a hit and miss depending on how the fund manger has invested and risk models they have in place. But yet again it is unlikely to impact on the Irish housing market as its debt and not real estate.

If they don't mind the EU disintegrating fairly sharpish then yeah we could get booted out ....but with the Italy are in, France then maybe there's a period of relative safety ahead?

We can't afford a write off from bond holders. Our repayments may decrease but our reputation will be destroyed.

We are a small open economy who need external investment. What message would a write off send to international investors?

Our credit rating would lower and future bond rates would increase.

As was said in the past we as a state are living beyond our means and in my view some tough decisions need to be made.

To bring this post back on topic the State needs to stay out of the housing sector and let it operate exactly as it should as a "market".

It's an extreme housing crisis, what do you expect?

Read all the posts on Europe/ The Euro/ Ireland / The world / China etc imploding for the last 15 years. Some people move from one theory of why the economy will tank to the next without even blinking. There has been only one person who was right all along though. The person who said that all those theories are just hogwash.

The expression 'laissez-faire' reminds me of a Ronan Lyons article earlier this year on what caused Ireland's property buble to burst. In it he descibes his view on a number of myths that have propogated in the years following and how policy has a signifigant role then, now and going foward.

Myth #1: Ireland built too many homes

Myth #2: Ireland’s bubble was a case study in laissez-faire

Myth #3: Ireland’s experience refutes the laws of supply and demand

Greece is not Ireland. The main reason with Greece was a lack of Tax revenue (black economy). We are not Greece, despite what people think our tax system does have a lot of safegaurds built in to catch those who avoid tax. (its not perfect by any stretch but its good).

I for one don't want to go through what Greece went through. Austerity was crippling for them as it would be for us. I would prefer if our tax revenues were better used and our welfare system was overhauled certainly in terms of housing allocations and its impact on the property market.

I could card multiple people for ignoring the fiftieth or so warning that this is not an economics/macroeconomics/theoretical economics thread but it'd take too long. But next time I will.

Just because someone else has ignored this doesn't give you free reign to reply to their posts either.

Do not reply to this post.

Its some contrast with the upto 200 per night for the hotel sector and of course the hotel sector will be filled up first.

We discussed at the start of the war that there would be some out to exploit the situation and lo and behold fresh out of the blocks.

I heard a certain indigenous fast food chain owner complaining of the lack of labour earlier in the year. Now he's filling up his rural hotel in Limerick

It's quite an opportunity for some, it would be some bonanza where the taxpayer to subsidise wages of profitable companies

The Poles have said the Ukrainians work twice as hard as they do and have been trying to lure them in for years to replace their people that have left for places like Ireland

Good find.

I remember during the last crash that the PropertyPin had a list of houses whose asking prices fell.

Does such a website/list still exist somewhere? Will be interesting to see if/when the market tops out and prices reach a ceiling of such.

Does anyone think that the hot new covid money will run dry this summer, hence having an impact on house prices?