Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think it could depend on how the Russians are able to define 'Russian soil' to their own people. If they're able to define it as occupied regions which Ukraine, backed by NATO, try to retake, then that's the danger. Not that we should really accommodate Russia's views on what is otherwise internationally-recognised as 'not Russia', but just to remind ourselves where they seem to be at, psychologically.

The current Russian position seems to be that Ukraine isn't even a real country, or one that only exists due to Russia's prior beneficence. To those who accept that view in Russia, I don't think it'd take much to make the leap to Russia is being attacked if/when Ukrainian forces, backed by NATO, make big gains in occupied regions. If Ukrainian forces were, for example, able to drive the Russians out of Kherson, I'd have to think the Russians would really drive the sabre-rattling to a whole new level.

One good thing in this is that the West no longer needs to court Russian public opinion. They are clearly beyond all help and completely enmeshed with Putin himself. This means they can concentrate on defeating Russia militarily and not give a flying fig what the Russian public think about anything. There certainly won't be any revolution from within and a coup is very unlikely.

It does beg the question whether the country can ever be rehabilitated or if it will remain a pariah state for decades to come, irrespective of what happens to Putin.

Responding to your last few lines. I have come to the conclusion that Russians are very passive.

I was looking around the world in repressive regimes and all the revolutions going on in those repressive regimes right now. People do resist in violently oppressive nations and it works in the long term.

I wonder why russians don't worry about the country their grandchildren will live in? If you dont make it better you will make it worse.

All they've known in their history is the boot. First the Romanovs, then the Communists, then the Putinistas. For a brief period, they were giddy with newfound freedoms under Yeltsin, but that only lasted about 5 years and they reverted true to form. They've never cared about their descendants in the past, why start now?

Russia has something substantial to lose with China , India, and Germany. That’s the argument I was making. And other countries too. But in my opinion they are the big three. If Russia drops a nuke, it will in all likelihood (not guaranteed) lose the support of those countries and the whole deck of cards will quickly collapse.

At the very least those three countries will be heavily sanctioned if they refuse to join sanctions of Russia in such a scenario.

Rte prime time did one this week with a young blogger from st Petersburg,most were happy with strong man Putin , some didn't want to speak about it Younger people for most part

People on social media talking loudly of boycotting German cars and goods might induce some fear in even bought German politicians.

The fact that Germany still refuses to restart it's nuclear power stations tells you all you need to know, really. They still think the Ukrainians will be defeated soon, I'm sure they will help with that, and the oil and gas and bribes will keep flowing. If they were serious about weaning themselves off Orc hydrocarbons, they would have teams recommissioning those power plants right now. I hope someone blows up Nodstream 1. Ukraine shouldn't be the only ones to feel pain.

WW2; the German Austrian tag-team still a thing. My father, who took part in WW2, was always wary of Germany and Germans, and while I thought it understandable, I did think that perhaps the reality was that the leopard had changed it's spots and lessons had been learned.

How wrong I was and how right was he.

Another interesting little insight into the Russian War Machine and the ties with Germany.

The Ukrainians have been putting Russian Tigr IMV 's back into service and we can see a clear example of a Bosch Diesel engine control unit commonly used by these vehicles.

I've lived in Germany. And at best its a different planet when it comes to the majority of people deciding on doing the right / correct thing given any particular set of circumstances.

For example - go to bakery in any city in Germany and people will climb over to get to the counter before you. No queuing no social niceties of "no please - you go first" or similar. Just plain bloody mindedness of "I want my bread now get out of my way"

Conversely at a pedestrian Junction. You will get a queue 10 people deep waiting for the little grren man and not a soul would dare to walk across the road - even if there wasn't another car for miles.

What's the difference? For one there is a law + fine stating you must not cross the road regardless of any danger - the other there is no law saying you must queue for the bakery so anything goes.

This behaviour is seen in other places. A few years back a group of Germans on a holiday in Europe found an Iron age Stone idol in a remote spot. When they were apprehended by the local police trying to take the object out of the country- they told the police they believed they could do so because there was no specific law against what they were doing.

Now while a lot of that might sound like generalities - in my experience Germans are exemplary when it comes to being law abiding. But give them a situation which requires they make a moral decision and they've little initiative to try and make the right one especially where they make no gain from doing so.

Imo the imports of Russian gas are little different. There's no law to say they shouldn't so they're not going to stop

Only 2 solutions - the first pass an EU wide law against using Russian gas or oil or shame them into it. Personally I don't think the second option will work.